THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

LAKEMBA
Labor 28.8%

Noted as a Lebanese enclave, the suburb of Lakemba is located about 10 kilometres south-west of the city centre. From here the electorate extends southwards to Peakhurst, east to Clemton Park and west to Punchbowl. The redistribution has made life easier by bringing the north-western part of Lakemba into the electorate, formerly in Bankstown, for the addition of nearly 10,000 voters. Three thousand voters around Narwee have been lost to Oatley in the south. The electorate was created in 1927 and has been held at all times by Labor.

The seat was held from 1995 to 1999 by Tony Stewart, who then moved to Bankstown in the wake of the Carr government's stimulating decision to cut the Legislative Assembly from 99 members to 93. This provoked a branch stacking war between the two rival Right sub-factions, Stewart's "Troglodytes" and the opposing "Terrigals", as members sought to shore up their strength in preparation for the redistribution. Linda Morris and Damien Murphy of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Stewart formed the 453-strong "Lakemba day branch" (one of three branches later abolished by the administrative committee) in response to a "recruiting drive" in neighbouring Hurstville, held by Terrigals member Morris Iemma (right) and scheduled for abolition under the new boundaries. This fuelled further stacking in Bankstown, then held by Doug Shedden of the Troglodytes. A deal was eventually struck in which Stewart replaced the retiring Shedden and Iemma replaced Stewart in Lakemba, part of a broader arrangement in which Police Minister Paul Whelan was forced to contest the Liberal seat of Strathfield after his own seat of Ashfield was abolished.

The son of Italian immigrants, Morris Iemma entered parliament as the member for Hurstville at the 1991 election, when he was 29. He won the seat from Phil White, Liberal member for the abolished Earlwood, with a 3.3 per cent swing and a boost from the redistribution, which had given it a notional Labor margin of 1.3 per cent. Iemma had previously been a staffer to legendary Right faction powerbroker Graham Richardson, then a Senator and Environment Minister in the Hawke government. When the Carr government came to power in 1995 Iemma became parliamentary secretary to the Attorney-General and Industrial Relations Minister, entering the ministry in the public works and services portfolio after the 1999 election. Sports and recreation was added to his list of responsibilities in November 2001, and he was awarded the crucial health portfolio when the Carr government was re-elected in 2003. When Carr retired in July 2005 it was initially thought that Smithfield MP and Police Minister Carl Scully was the front-runner, but party hard-heads subsequently concluded he was "unelectable", largely on account of his role as Transport Minister when a series of train accidents occurred. Scully was forced to withdraw after former supporters including Fairfield MP Joe Tripodi fell in behind Iemma, who was elected unopposed.

Six weeks after the prospect was briefly raised of radical Islamic cleric Sheik Taj el-Din al Hilaly running against Morris Iemma, there was a brief flurry of talk in the second week of the campaign that boxer Anthony Mundine would run at his behest. By Thursday, Mundine was declaring that he still hoped to enter politics "maybe some time in the near future". Last August, it was reported that Mundine was planning on running against Education Minister Carmel Tebbutt in Marrickville. An earlier foray into politics came with the following declaration on Channel Nine’s Today program in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks: "if you understand the religion and our way of life it's not about terrorism, it's about fighting for God's laws, and America's brought it upon themselves (for) what they’ve done in history and so on". Channel Nine's line to Mundine was then cut by an unfortunately timed technical glitch.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain