THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

GOULBURN
Liberal 4.5%

The electorate of Goulburn has been created by the current redistribution following the abolition of Southern Highlands, taking much of that electorate's area and supplementing it with 19,000 voters in Goulburn itself, which was formerly in Burrinjuck. It covers 7628 square kilometres, with the Hume Highway running roughly through the centre from the south-west to the north-east. The major population centres apart from Goulburn itself are Bowral and Moss Vale, about 60 kilometres to the east. Much of the remainder of Southern Highlands has gone to the new electorate of Wollondilly to the north – nearly 20,000 voters from Bargo north to Oakdale, plus a large area of Blue Mountains National Park. Goulburn has an estimated Liberal margin of 4.5 per cent, compared with Southern Highlands' 7.6 per cent.

Goulburn previously existed as an electorate from 1859 (three years after the establishment of the New South Wales parliament) until 1991, including a period as a three-member district after proportional representation was introduced in 1920. It was held by Labor from the reintroduction of single-member electorates in 1927 until 1965, when it fell to the Country Party with that year's change of government. Robert Webster held it for the National Party from 1984 until the seat's abolition forced him to take refuge in the upper house, thwarting his party leadership aspirations. He remained there until he resigned in 1995, and has occasionally been mentioned in recent years as a potential Liberal candidate. Southern Highlands was created at the 1988 election and won for the Liberals by future Premier John Fahey, who had won the seat of Camden from Labor in 1984. Nothing became of talk that Webster might attempt to remain in the lower house in 1991 by running against him. After the defeat of his government in 1995, Fahey entered federal politics as the member for Macarthur at the 1996 election.

The ensuing by-election produced a three-cornered contest in which Liberal candidate Peta Seaton overcame a primary vote deficit on preferences to defeat the Nationals' Katrina Hodgkinson, who went on to become the member for Burrinjuck in 1999. Seaton was promoted to the front bench after the 1999 election and held the finance and energy portfolios from March 2006, despite her support for the leadership of John Brogden and association with the marginalised Left faction. It accordingly came as a surprise when she announced on September 16 that she would not stand at the coming election, saying she wished to spend more time with her family. The loss of her own talents notwithstanding, this came as a gift to the Liberal Party as it created a vacancy for high-profile aspirant Pru Goward (above) , who that very day had lost the Epping preselection vote to deputy director of public prosecutions Greg Smith. Goulburn was in fact a better fit than suburban Epping for Goward, who lives in nearby Yass.

The credentials Goward brings to the table are considerable: appointed Sex Discrimination Commissioner by her friend the Prime Minister in 2001, she had previously been a Radio National presenter, political correspondent for The 7.30 Report and a lecturer in economics and journalism. For all that, the party hierarchy's efforts to smooth the way for her met with considerable local opposition. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that constitutional lawyer Martin Laverty was "understood to be ahead if any preselection battle occurred, because of the heavy local weighting involved in a country preselection". Those encouraging Laverty to run reportedly included Peta Seaton, who would appear to be a natural ally of Goward by virtue of her hostility to Right powerbroker David Clarke and reputation as a "wet" on social issues. She was perhaps closer still to Laverty, who was one of several members of the state executive who departed as the Right gained ascendancy. Laverty was ultimately prevailed upon to withdraw by Peter Debnam, and Goward was endorsed unopposed.

However, a new threat to her election has emerged with Goulburn mayor Paul Stephenson's (left) decision to run as an independent, which local observers are taking very seriously. Stephenson has echoed widely expressed concerns about Goward's endorsement, which it must be said sound rather puzzling to the outside observer. The Australian quoted Stephenson saying that Goward "might live in Yass, but she's definitely not a local in Moss Vale and Bowral and places like that". Labor's candidate is Berrima civil engineer Robert Parker (right).

On the second last Saturday of the campaign, Steven Scott of the Financial Review reported that the Liberals were "worried" Pru Goward would be defeated by Paul Stephenson. The government had given Stephenson a fillip by announcing plans for a 77 kilometre pipeline from the Wingecarribee River to Goulburn’s storages, which are so low the town has been on level five restrictions since 2003. John Breusch of the Financial Review noted that the "Iemma government may be in caretaker mode, but the decision to build the pipeline was taken by state cabinet last month following consultation with Stephenson in his role as mayor". Stephenson was also invited to a "private briefing" on the drought plan with Morris Iemma last week. The Sydney Morning Herald reported he was "a bit surprised" that Labor candidate Robert Parker was not invited.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain