THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

COFFS HARBOUR
Nationals 11.9%

The north coast electorate of Coffs Harbour includes the town itself and 20 kilometres of coastline in either direction, taking in Sawtell and Woolgoolga. The redistribution has produced an exchange of territory with Oxley in the south, extending its coastal area to take in 1800 voters at Mylestrom and Urunga, and removing 5000 voters from the Shire of Bellingen further inland. At the opposite end, 3000 voters around Nana Glen have been gained from Clarence in the north. These changes have cut 2.4 per cent from the Nationals' margin. The electorate was created in 1981 in place of the abolished Raleigh; taken together, the two have been in National/Country Party hands since proportional representation was abolished in 1927.

Andrew Fraser (right) became member at a November 1990 by-election after the retirement of Matt Singleton, who a year earlier was dumped from cabinet over a failure to declare financial interests. The by-election saw a 16 per cent swing to Labor and a 29.9 per cent slump in the National Party vote, but Fraser nonetheless pulled through with a margin of 5.4 per cent. He was promoted to the front bench in 1998 and has remained there since, currently holding the small business and forestry portfolios. Fraser contested the Nationals leadership when George Souris stood aside after the 2003 election, losing to Andrew Stoner seven votes to five. It was reported in December 2004 that he was manoeuvring to challenge Stoner, although nothing has become of this.

In October 2005 Fraser came to national attention when he charged across the parliamentary chamber and attacked Roads Minister Joe Tripodi, who had been goading him about his failure to attend an announcement of new safety measures for the Pacific Highway, scene of numerous fatal accidents. Tripodi agreed to these measures after meeting with Coffs Harbour mayor Keith Rhoades, who ran against Fraser as an independent in 2003 and polled 10.7 per cent (another independent, deputy mayor Jan Strom, polled 18.1 per cent). Fraser claimed this was part of a strategy to build Rhoades's political capital ahead of another attempt to unseat him. Such a challenge now seems unlikely to come off in light of Fraser's confrontation with Tripodi, which by most accounts made him hugely popular with his constituents. Nonetheless, Linda Silmaris of the Sunday Telegraph reported in October that Labor had commissioned a poll of 350 voters which showed them set to pick up the seat with an unlikely sounding 13 per cent swing.

ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain