THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

BAULKHAM HILLS
Liberal 4.0%

Baulkham Hills is in Sydney's outer north-western suburbs, about 25 kilometres from the city centre. The redistribution has added 9000 voters around Northmead in the south from Wentworthville (which has been renamed Toongabbie) and transferred 8000 at Carlingford in the east to Castle Hill (formerly known as The Hills). Labor's strength in the former area has cut the Liberal margin by 1.9 per cent. The seat has been held since its creation in 1991 by Wayne Merton (left), who entered parliament as member for the abolished Carlingford in 1988. Merton served as Justice and Emergency Services Minister in the Fahey government from October 1992 until he was dropped seven months later, reportedly due to a "disappointing parliamentary performance" in a difficult period for the portfolio. In 2000 he returned to the front bench with minor shadow portfolios, but was again dropped when John Brogden became leader in March 2002. Merton faced a preselection challenge in early 2006 from Baulkham Hills councillor and "devout Mormon" Mike Thomas, which Anne Davies of the Sydney Morning Herald said was "believed to have the backing of upper house MP and prominent Christian conservative David Clarke" (though Merton himself, a "staunch Salvation Army member", was himself once described as a member of the Liberal "God squad"). Anna Patty of the Daily Telegraph reported that there were also "moderates" who believed Merton's time was up. Nonetheless, Thomas withdrew his challenge and Merton will stand again. Labor's candidate is Baulkham Hills mayor and glutton for punishment Tony Hay (right), who also stood in 1995, 1999 and 2003.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain