THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

BATHURST
Labor 13.1%

The electorate of Bathurst covers 14,875 square kilometres and extends from the city of Bathurst east to Lithgow, south to Oberon, south-west to Blayney and north to Rylstone. Labor scored clear primary vote majorities in the dominant Bathurst and Lithgow booths in 2003, overwhelming the stronger Nationals support in smaller towns and rural areas. The redistribution has effected only minor changes, adding 1500 voters in the Shire of Blayney from Orange to the west and 800 from Blue Mountains in the south-east. The electorate has existed without interruption since self-government was established in 1856, including seven years as a three-member district when proportional representation operated after 1920. Labor's Christopher Kelly was member for all but one term between 1925 until his death in 1967, when it fell to Clive Osborne of the Country Party. Osborne's position was seriously weakened after the Wran government abolished rural vote weighting in 1981, leading the electorate to expand into Labor-voting Lithgow. It was then narrowly won for Labor by Mick Clough, who had held Blue Mountains since 1976. Clough held the seat until 1999, although he had one term on the bench after losing to Liberal candidate David Berry in 1988, and only narrowly defeated Nationals candidate Trevor Toole in 1995. His successor was Lithgow mayor Gerard Martin (left), who was assisted to a 17.2 per cent swing by the Liberals' ill-advised decision to field a candidate. Martin was mentioned as a potential front-bench candidate when Michael Egan quit as Treasurer in January 2005, and again when Bob Carr retired the following July. The Nationals have nominated Blayney deputy mayor Susan Williams (right), described on the party website as "a primary producer and local businesswoman".

The opposition pledged in week two of the campaign to begin construction of the Bells Line Expressway M2 Extension, to run from Quakers Hill in north-western Sydney to just north of Lithgow. Such a road would provide a safer route through the Blue Mountains than the existing Great Western Highway and Bells Line of Road, allowing B-double trucks a direct route west of Sydney. The promise puts the opposition at odds with federal Roads Minister Jim Lloyd; a spokesperson quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald said the project was "not viable, economically or socially".

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain