THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

BARWON
Nationals 14.6%

At 221,570 square kilometres, Barwon is one of the state's two conspicuously large electorates, the other being the slightly bigger Murray-Darling. Collectively they account for 58 per cent of the total area of the state. The current redistribution has nearly doubled Barwon's size due to a 12 per cent decline in projected enrolment since 1998. Eight thousand voters and a vast area (including Bourke and Cobar shires) have been added from Murray-Darling in the west, along with 6000 voters in Coonabarabran and Coolah shires from Upper Hunter in the south-east. This has been counterbalanced by losses in the east: 4000 voters in the Shire of Gwydir to Northern Tablelands, and 4500 around Manilla, Barraba and Boggabri to Tamworth.

Barwon has existed without interruption since 1927, and has only been held by Labor from 1930 to 1932 and 1940 to 1950. The National/Country Party has held the seat since 1950, retiring member Ian Slack-Smith assuming it when former leader Wal Murray retired in 1995. The party's new candidate is Kevin Humphries (left), a former high school principal and consultancy business operator who won preselection in October from a field of six candidates. In August, Slack-Smith said a "Labor insider" had told him the party would run dead and secretly back Coonamble mayor Tim Horan as an independent, a claim Horan denied. It has been reported that the existing grouping of independent MPs, which includes members for the traditional Nationals strongholds of Tamworth, Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Northern Tablelands, have the seat "in their sights".

Labor's candidate for the third successive election is Moree Plains councillor Meryl Dillon (right).

ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain