THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

BALMAIN
Labor 7.1% versus Greens

Balmain is located due west of the city centre, from Glebe west to Haberfield and north into the Balmain peninsula. Its name has been changed from Port Jackson due to a shift westwards in the redistribution, which adds 5000 voters at Haberfield from Drummoyne and transfers 11,000 in and around the city centre to Bligh (which has accordingly been renamed Sydney). Labor has expressed concern that the changes leave it more vulnerable to the Greens, who have a lower vote in the city itself than in the surrounding inner suburbs. However, Labor's primary vote in the newly added Haberfield area is nearly 5 per cent higher than in the rest of the electorate, and Antony Green calculates their two-party margin has only been cut 0.2 per cent. A Labor submission calling for the seat to be renamed in honour of Neville Wran was rejected.

Port Jackson was itself created in 1991 by a merger of Balmain, then held by swimming legend Dawn Fraser, and McKell, won for Labor in 1988 by Sandra Nori. Fraser and Nori both contested the new seat, and Nori won easily with 50.7 per cent of the primary vote to Fraser's 18.9 per cent. Nori had also faced an independent challenge when she entered parliament in 1988, from future front-bench colleague Frank Sartor (now the member for Rockdale). With Nori retiring at the coming election, Labor has nominated Verity Firth (left), deputy lord mayor, former Slater & Gordon lawyer and niece of outgoing Legislative Council president (and fellow Left stalwart) Meredith Burgmann. The Greens, who polled 28.9 per cent of the primary vote in 2003, have nominated Leichhardt councillor Rochelle Porteous (right).

As usual, the Greens’ preference deliberations have eaten up a lot of column inches, despite the notorious indirectability of the party's supporters. Of greater interest was the free kick the Liberals gave Labor in the second last week of the campaign when they announced they would recommend an exhausted vote in Balmain and Marrickville – the two seats the Greens could potentially win. Since major party voters really do follow the how-to-vote card, this will surely end the Greens' hopes for a lower house seat, giving Labor two less things to worry about. This step was presumably taken to give the Coalition ammunition in a late-campaign offensive over supposed deals between Labor and the Greens, perhaps involving secret protocols on crime and drugs policy.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain