THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

STURT
Liberal 6.8%

Sturt covers the inner eastern suburbs of Adelaide, including Payneham, Kensington, Tranmere and Skye east of the city, Klemzig, Campbelltown, Paradise and Highbury to the north, and Glenunga, Glen Osmond and Beaumont to the south. When created in 1949 it also covered the north of Adelaide, which formed the basis of the new electorate of Bonython (since abolished) in 1955. This made the seat notionally Liberal after Norman Makin won it for Labor in 1954, prompting Makin to switch to Bonython. It has since been won by Labor only in 1969, when Norman Foster secured a narrow victory after a 15.0 per cent swing. The redistribution resulting from South Australia's loss of a seat in 2004 shifted the seat eastwards, adding the outer suburbs around Tea Tree Gully, formerly part of Mayo, and transferring territory closer to the city to Adelaide. Christopher Pyne has been the member since 1993 when he conducted a preselection coup against Ian Wilson, who had succeeded his father as member in 1966.

The Adelaide Advertiser has published two polls from Sturt with samples of just under 700: on November 16, when Pyne led 44 per cent to 38 per cent on the primary vote and 51-49 on two-party preferred, and on October 5, when he led 44 per cent to 35 per cent and 52-48. The latter poll came the day after the ABC published an Adelaide University survey of 297 voters which had Pyne with a surprising 50 per cent of the primary vote against 40 per cent for Labor, translating into a 55-45 win for Pyne and a two-party Labor swing of around 2 per cent. Two weeks earlier, Mark Kenny of The Advertiser wrote that Labor was not expected to win Sturt “unless the political stocks of the Government deteriorate even further in SA”.