THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

ROBERTSON
Liberal 6.9%

With the Hawkesbury River as its southern boundary, Robertson covers the coast about 80 kilometres north of Sydney at Killcare and Terrigal, also including Gosford and Woy Woy and national park areas earlier inland. Although technically a federation seat, it was a very different beast at its creation, when it covered the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone. As it was drawn in over time to the increasingly urbanised coast, the traditionally conservative seat became stronger for Labor, Barry Cohen gaining the seat in 1969 and surviving the twin disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat has since drifted back towards the Liberals, a process which was shoved along by the 9.2 per cent swing that saw Jim Lloyd defeat incumbent Frank Walker in 1996. Lloyd had another good result when he increased his margin by 5.0 per cent in 2001, which was reckoned to have been influenced by a Labor preselection brawl. The current redistribution has effected minor changes to the northern boundary with Dobell, cutting the Liberal margin by 0.1 per cent. Labor has endorsed Belinda Neal, who served in the Senate from 1994 until she quit in 1998 to stand unsuccessfully for Robertson. Neal is married to senior state minister and Right faction powerbroker John Della Bosca.

The Coalition has nonetheless targeted Robertson with a promise to repair a section of the Old Pacific Highway at Somersby, which has been closed since a family of five was killed following a road collapse in June. The Newcastle Herald reported that “no dollar figure has been attached to the promise”, but it is expected to be around $10 million.

At the start of the third week of the campaign, the Daily Telegraph ran a combined poll from the electorates of Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay and Paterson which pointed to an 8 per cent swing to Labor, easily enough to win them all four. The following week, Dennis Shanahan of The Australian related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that party polling in NSW marginals was “not as strong as published polling”, and that talk about Robertson in particular was “a lot of hype”.