THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

NORTH SYDNEY
Liberal 10.1%

North Sydney covered the entire Sydney area north of the harbour when it was created at federation, losing most of its surface area with the creation of Warringah in 1922. It has since covered a shifting area to the north and west of North Sydney proper, currently extending to Willoughby, Lane Cove and Gladesville, and has never been held by Labor. Past members include Billy Hughes, who came here from Bendigo in 1922 and held the seat until 1949, when he went to newly created Bradfield. The only time the modern Liberal Party lost its grip was between 1990 and 1996, when it fell to independent North Sydney mayor and future republic referendum spoiler Ted Mack. Joe Hockey had no trouble recovering the seat for the Liberals after Mack declined to run again in 1996. Labor created headlines when they announced their candidate would be former ABC weather presenter Mike Bailey.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Labor polling conducted in North Sydney in mid-September pointed to a 13 per cent swing, enough for Joe Hockey to be comfortably defeated. This might easily be dismissed as a Labor diversionary tactic, but the report also referred to &$147;suggestions in the Liberal Party in recent weeks&$148; that Hockey might be in trouble. I was about to protest that such talk is familiar from the 2004 election, but Coorey’s source again pre-empted me: Hockey really had been struggling going into that campaign, but &$147;Mark Latham's attack on private schools helped revive his fortunes&$148;. Sure enough, a McNair poll of 400 voters published early in the last week of the campaign pointed to a dead heat on two-party preferred.