THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

McEWEN
Liberal 6.4%

McEwen extends from outer north-eastern suburbs of Melbourne including Healesville and Craigieburn deep into central Victoria, taking in Seymour and Eildon in the north. Created in 1984, it left the marginal zone for the first time in 2004 when Fran Bailey added 4.2 per cent to the 1.0 per cent boost she had received in the redistribution. Bailey first won the seat in 1990, when it was one of nine Labor seats in Victoria to fall to the Liberals. Defeated member Peter Cleeland recovered the seat in 1993, was again defeated by Bailey in 1996. Like so many other marginal seats, McEwen swung only slightly to Labor in 1998, allowing the Howard government to win re-election from a minority of the national two-party vote. Bailey picked up a slight swing in 2001 before her triumph in 2004. Labor's candidate Robert Mitchell held a seat for the state upper house province of Central Highlands from 2002 until he was frozen out by the electoral reforms that took effect in 2006, being forced to contest the safe Nationals lower house seat of Benalla.

In the second week of the campaign, Peter Costello appeared in the electorate to announce $80 million in AusLink funding for road bridges on a yet-to-be-built extension of the Epping rail line to South Morang.

Tim Colebatch of The Age detected good news for Labor in an enrolment boom in the electorate, which has been driven by its more Labor-leaning urban areas.