THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

LILLEY
Labor 5.4%

Created in 1913, Lilley originally extended from its current base of Nudgee, Aspley, Kedron, Eagle Farm and Brisbane Airport all the way north to Gympie. The seat was usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day, apart from narrow Labor wins in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (when the margin was 35 votes). A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor's Elaine Darling first won the seat with a swing of 5.2 per cent, then consolidated her hold with a further 8.4 per cent swing. Wayne Swan succeeded Darling in 1993, but like all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues lost his seat in 1996. Swan stood again in 1998 and easily accounted for the 0.4 per cent post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5 per cent. He has since added further fat to his margin with each subsequent election, but not to the point where defeat in some future landslide is entirely out of the question.

For some reason, Brisbane's Sunday Mail newspaper commissioned Galaxy to survey Lilley late in the second week of the campaign. It showed Swan leading the Liberal candidate 59 per cent to 32 per cent, compared with 48.9 per cent and 41.2 per cent in 2004.