THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

LEICHHARDT Liberal 10.3%
Cairns/Cape York Peninsula, Queensland Click here for Leichhardt discussion forum
	SELWYN JOHNSTON Independent BRIDGETTE LENNOX Democrats TONY HUDSON Independent NORMAN MILLER Independent IAN CROSSLAND Independent JIM TURNOUR Labor (bottom left) SUE CORY Greens BEN JACOBSEN Family First CHARLIE MCKILLOP Liberal (top left) RATA HAMI PUGH Independent DAMIAN BYRNES Independent

Leichhardt covers Cairns and the Cape York Peninsula, combining naturally marginal Cairns with strongly conservative Cooktown and rock-solid Labor indigenous communities to the west and north. The seat has the nation's third highest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, behind Lingiari in the Northern Territory and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia. Its other distinguishing features are a lare number of voters over 55, reflecting the popularity of Cairns as a retirement haven. With all three local state seats held by Labor, Leichhardt is considerably less secure for the Liberals than the 10.3 per cent margin makes it appear, particularly in light of the looming retirement after 11 years of sitting member Warren Entsch.

Leichhardt was created in 1949, Cape York Peninsula having previously been in Herbert until 1934 and Kennedy thereafter. It was won narrowly by the Country Party at its first election, but fell to Labor in 1951 and stayed with them until the Queensland wipeout of 1975. It has since changed hands along with government in 1983, when the seat was lost by the Nationals, and 1996, when it was won for the first time by the Liberals. New member Warren Entsch suffered only a 0.5 per cent swing with the 1998 correction, and subsequently built his margin up to double figures with swings of 2.3 per cent and 3.6 per cent. With Entsch's retirement the Liberals have nominated businesswoman Charlie McKillop, while Labor has again nominated 2004 candidate Jim Turnour, an agricultural consultant and former staffer to Senator Jan McLucas.

Leichhardt was a target of the federal government's announcement in early October that it would spend $2 billion of a $5 billion national infrastructure package upgrading the Bruce Highway, which runs from Brisbane to Cairns. A week earlier, Shadow Roads Minister Martin Ferguson signalled that a Labor government would prioritise an upgrade only as far as Gin Gin, located far to the south in Flynn.

Ian Crossland was rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile in the first week of the campaign for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, in reference to Charlie McKillop.

In early October, Madonna King wrote in the Courier-Mail that Liberal insiders were struggling to dispute Labor talk that six Queensland Coalition seats were “in the bag”, the most surprising of which was Leichhardt. Tony Wright of The Age went so far as to report later in the month that the Liberals considered the seat a “lost cause”. King said three-cornered contests in Leichhardt and Flynn were an “electoral gift to Labor”, while Lisa Allen of the Financial Review quoted a Liberal source lamenting the departure of Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch and his “98 per cent name recognition in that electorate”. The Cairns Post has published two polls from the electorate, with differing results. A poll published on September 22 showed Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor. However, the second poll a week out from the election had McKillop looking good on 41 per cent with Crossland on 6 per cent, against 36 per cent for Labor’s Jim Turnour and 8 per cent for the Greens.