THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

HUGHES
Liberal 8.8%

Hughes covers outer southern Sydney, including Lucas Heights and Waterfall. Much has been made of the Coalition's dominance here in the Howard era, as it had only previously been won by the Liberals in 1966 in a history going back to 1955. Danna Vale won the seat from embattled Keating government Aboriginal Affairs Minister Robert Tickner in 1996 with a massive 11.4 per cent swing, and has increased her majority at each election since. The swing in 1998 was particularly remarkable, although she might have been aided by Labor candidate David Hill, the former ABC managing director who had been head of Sydney Water at the time of that year's water contamination crisis. Some of the shine has been taken off Vale's margin by a redistribution that moves the electorate into the town centre of Liverpool, boosting Labor by 2.2 per cent.

Michelle Cazzulino of the Daily Telegraph wrote late in the fourth week of the campaign that “confident Labor strategists” were “predicting an upset victory”. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph named the seat with Macarthur and Paterson among seats Labor was targeting “in a strategy to spook the Government and draw precious resources away from a handful of must-win seats” – namely Lindsay, Dobell, Macquarie and Eden-Monaro.