THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

FORDE
Liberal 13.0%

Forde was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, originally covering new suburbs in Brisbane's outer south-west. Liberal candidate David Watson won the seat on its debut by 43 votes, before a statewide swing to Labor in 1987 delivered the seat to Mary Crawford. Watson would later return as the state Liberal leader who led his party to the 2001 election massacre, from which it emerged with three seats. Crawford built up a handy margin over the next two elections, before a cruel redistribution pulled the seat into the rural Beaudesert region on the New South Wales border, leaving a toehold at Logan City as its only urban territory. She thus went into the 1996 election with no buffer against the savage swing that hit Labor across Queensland, which struck Forde to the tune of 9.6 per cent. The new Liberal member was Kay Elson, who retained comfortable margins in 1998 and 2001 before sealing the deal with a 5.9 per cent swing in 2004. With Elson retiring, the Liberals have nominated journalist Wendy Creighton. The current redistribution has led to a considerable reduction in the surface area of the electorate, with the inland Shire of Boonah ceded to Blair.

In the final week of the campaign, Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that the Liberals are so alarmed about Forde they had “abandoned their candidate” and told the local party to get behind Nationals candidate Hajnal Ban, who had “won traction with voters”. At the end of October, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal polling from the seat was “whispered to have sent a bolt of fear through the party”.