THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

FLINDERS
Liberal 11.1%

Flinders has existed since federation, gradually shrinking over time into its present location around Westernport Bay and at the tip of the Mornington Peninsula. The combination of rural territory and quality coastal real estate, the latter increasing in relative influence over time, has kept the seat in conservative hands on all but three occasions, the most memorable of which involved Prime Minister Stanley Bruce's defeat at the 1929 election. The resignation of first-term Fraser government Treasurer Phillip Lynch in 1982 precipitated a momentous by-election that November, in which Liberal candidate Peter Reith held the seat against feeble anti-government swing of 2.3 per cent. This sealed the fate of Bill Hayden who was deposed as Labor leader by Bob Hawke two months later, on the day Malcolm Fraser announced the 1983 election. That election saw Reith defeated before by Labor's Robert Chynoweth before he had assumed his seat. With the enlargement of parliament in 1984, Chynoweth moved to the slightly safer new seat of Dunkley, and Reith recovered Flinders with a 1.5 per cent swing. Reith retained the seat with fair-to-middling margins until he retired in 2001, after an eventful five years as a senior government minister. He was succeeded by Greg Hunt, whose reputation as an up-and-comer was confirmed with his promotion in January 2007 to parliamentary secretary to the Foreign Minister.

Beyond the range of the usual Victorian suspects, Flinders, Dunkley and Aston were included by Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph in a list of seats which Labor insiders claimed were “in play” two weeks into the campaign.