THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

DUNKLEY
Liberal 9.4%

Dunkley was created in Melbourne's eastern bayside outskirts when parliament was enlarged in 1984, its focal point being the outer urban centre of Frankston. The inaugural member was Labor's Robert Chynoweth, who had dislodged Peter Reith as member for Flinders in 1983. After staying with Labor in 1987, Dunkley was one of nine Victorian seats that fell to the Coalition in 1990, but Chynoweth was able to recover it in 1993. Chynoweth was inevitably turfed out with the Keating government's defeat in 1996, and the seat has since followed the outer suburban pattern in swinging decisively to the Liberals. Liberal member Bruce Billson survived a relatively mild swing in 1998, Dunkley being one of a number of marginal seats to resist a broader trend that gave Labor a majority of the national two-party vote. The seat has since been lifted from the marginal range by swings of 3.9 per cent in 2001 and 4.2 per cent in 2004.

Beyond the range of the usual Victorian suspects, Dunkley, Flinders and Aston were included by Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph in a list of seats which Labor insiders claimed were “in play” two weeks into the campaign. Peter Costello appeared in Dunkley at around this time promising $150 million in funding for the Frankston Bypass.