The Poll Bludger - Australian State and Federal Elections

COWAN Labor 0.8%
Northern Perth Suburbs, Western Australia Outgoing Member: Graham Edwards (Labor)
	KEN LEE Liberty and Democracy Party ROGER BLAKEWAY Citizens Electoral Council JOHANNES HERRMANN Greens LUKE SIMPKINS Liberal (bottom left) MARTIN FIRTH Christian Democratic Party NORM RAMSAY Independent DAVE TIERNEY One Nation WA RHONDA HAMERSLEY Family First LIZ PRIME Labor (top left)


Booth results at the 2004 election, with size of numbers varying to reflect number of votes cast. Click on image to toggle between two-party vote and swing.

Cowan was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 from an area of Perth's northern suburbs which had previously been in Stirling and Moore. It originally extended to the coast at North Beach, before assuming its current orientation east of the Mitchell Freeway in 1990. Despite the boost this gave to Labor, inaugural member Carolyn Jakobsen lost the seat to Liberal candidate Richard Evans at the 1993 election following a statewide swing against the Keating government. The seat returned to the Labor fold in 1998 when it was won by Graham Edwards, a former state government minister who lost his legs to a land mine while serving in Vietnam. Edwards increased his margin in 2001 before being buffeted by the swing against Labor in Perth's suburbs in 2004, which reduced his margin from 5.6 per cent to 0.9 per cent. With Edwards retiring at the current election, Labor has nominated Liz Prime, director of nursing at Joondalup Health Campus. The Liberals have again nominated their candidate from 2004, “party apparatchik” and former security adviser Luke Simpkins.

The West Australian has published three Westpoll surveys of 400 Cowan voters showing the Liberals set to take the seat. A poll conducted in October had the Liberal lead at 54-46, and a poll on election day itself had it at 53-47. Luke Simpkins was also said to be ahead in a poll conducted for the Liberals in mid-September by Crosby-Textor, as reported by Tony Barrass of The Australian. However, Andrew Burrell of the Financial Review reported that the more recent Westpoll, which also had the Liberals ahead in Stirling and Hasluck, was disputed by Labor sources. Statewide Westpoll surveys have produced a mixed pictureLiberals: the October poll pointed to an 8.4 per cent swing to Labor, but a poll published a week before election day had it at just 3.4 per cent.