THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

BONNER Liberal 0.7%
Outer Brisbane Suburbs, Queensland Click here for Bonner discussion forum
	KERRY REA Labor (bottom left) LISA CHARLES LDP ROSS VASTA Liberal (top left) STEPHEN GELLATLY Family First VICKI STOCKS Democrats SHANE BOESE Fishing Party DAVID WYATT Greens
Booth results at the 2004 election, with size of numbers varying to reflect number of votes cast. Click on image to toggle between two-party vote and swing.

Extending from the bayside Wynnum-Manly area in Brisbane's north-east to Mount Gravatt in the south-west, Bonner was created at the 2004 election and is the only Queensland seat to have been unaffected by the current redistribution. Labor's unsuccessful candidate in Bonner at the 2004 election was Con Sciacca, a Keating government minister who held Bowman from 1987 to 1996 and again from 1998 to 2004. With a notional Labor margin of 1.9 per cent, Bonner was a greatly more attractive option for Sciacca than the redrawn Bowman, where the loss of Wynnum-Manly and the gain of the Redland Bay area from Fadden produced a notional Liberal margin of 3.1 per cent. Nonetheless, Sciacca was unable to hold the new seat, suffering a 2.4 per cent swing and losing by 795 votes. The successful Liberal candidate was Ross Vasta, a former restaurant owner and staffer to Senator Brett Mason who ran unsuccessfully against Kevin Rudd in Griffith in 2001. There were interesting variations in booth results based on the electorates the booths had previously been in, with Labor suffering a mass exodus from Griffith voters who had lost the opportunity to vote for Rudd. By contrast, Sciacca was able to pick up a small swing from his existing constituents in the Wynnum-Manly area that had been in Bowman, and in the Moreton area of Mount Gravatt where Gary Hardgrave also appeared to enjoy strong personal support. The strength of these variations can only partly be explained by demographic factors, specifically the greater concentration of voters in mortgage-paying households in the Griffith area (32.8 per cent on 2001 census figures, compared with 28.0 per cent in the Bowman area, 23.9 per cent in the Moreton area and 26.5 per cent nationally).

Ross Vasta's main source of publicity since entering parliament has been his involvement in the scandal surrounding misuse of electoral printing allowances, which resulted in his office being searched by the Australian Federal Police in March. However, the printing job which was the subject of the investigation was reportedly not ordered by Vasta, and the main principals of the affair were his Brisbane Liberal colleagues Gary Hardgrave and Andrew Laming (the member for Bowman). He was eventually cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions on September 11. Labor's candidate is Kerry Rea, who has been on Brisbane City Council since 1991. Rea's Holland Park ward coincides with Bonner around Mount Gravatt, the remainder being in Griffith and Moreton. A member of the Left faction, Rea reportedly won preselection “comfortably” ahead of school teacher Chris Forrester. Forrester was Labor's unsuccessful candidate at the by-election for the state seat of Chatsworth in August 2005, and initially aspired to run again at last September's election. He was persuaded to withdraw in favour of Channel Nine sports commentator Chris Bombolas, who went on to defeat Liberal member Michael Caltabiano, as part of a deal that gave him factional backing in Bonner. Matthew Franklin of The Australian reported that this deal unravelled following a rebellion in local party ranks, where Rea had overwhelming support.

In early September, Labor promised to commit “up to” $300 million to begin construction of an underpass at the junction of Mains and Kessels roads in Macgregor, located just inside Moreton and near the boundary of Bonner. The Courier-Mail records the following reaction from embattled Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave, who claims the resumption of businesses in the area will cost thousands of jobs: “I couldn’t believe my luck. I was always going to win the seat but this now ensures the swing is on”. In the first week of the campaign Labor committed $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton.

Bonner was one of four Queensland electorates covered by a Newspoll marginal survey published in the third week of the campaign, which showed a combined swing across the four of 9.6 per cent. The swing was at 8.6 per cent when the exercise was replicated in the final fortnight of the campaign. A similar exercise at the start of the campaign by Galaxy pointed to a swing of 5 per cent. Writing in the Courier-Mail in early October, Madonna King reported that Liberal insiders were struggling to dispute Labor talk that Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert and Flynn were “in the bag”.