THE POLL BLUDGER
House of Representatives Election 2007

ADELAIDE
Labor 1.3%

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into single-member electorates in 1903. Labor first won the seat in 1908, and it was usually in the party's hands from then until 1988. It was then lost at a mid-term by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4 per cent swing. Labor recovered it in 1990, but an unfavourable redistribution combined with a small swing to deliver it to Liberal member Trish Worth in 1993. Unfavourable demographic trends meant Worth's margin never rose above 3.5 per cent in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. The seat finally fell in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national trend to the Coalition, Adelaide swinging to Labor by a decisive 1.9 per cent swing. The new member was 27-year-old Kate Ellis, an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen who was nominated following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for the “soft Left”'s Steve Georganas and Makin for the “hard Left”'s Dana Wortley (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

On October 26, Adelaide's Advertiser newspaper published an in-house poll of 724 respondents which showed Kate Ellis headed for a landslide re-election. She led her Liberal opponent 64-36 on two-party preferred and 52 per cent to 30 per cent on the primary vote.