Federal Election 2004
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||
| Region | Non-Labor electorates | Labor electorates | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| South-East Perth | (0.4) CANNING | STIRLING (1.6) | Northern Perth |
| Outer Perth | (6.1) MOORE | HASLUCK (1.8) | Eastern Perth |
| Perth Rural Fringe | (6.9) PEARCE | SWAN (2.1) | Inner Perth |
| Outback | (4.4) KALGOORLIE | COWAN (5.6) | Northern Perth |
| South-West | (7.7) FORREST | BRAND (10.1) | Rockingham/Mandurah |
| Southern Perth | (8.0) TANGNEY | FREMANTLE (10.7) | Southern Perth |
| Western Perth | (14.0) CURTIN | PERTH (11.3) | Inner Perth |
| Rural | (19.1) O'CONNOR | ||
Key - Australian Labor Party Liberal Party * Region classifications are based on those used by Antony Green in his election summaries at ABC Elections. | |||
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BRAND (Labor 10.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: During the last Labor government Kim Beazley Sr's little boy established himself as a Bob Hawke loyalist and competent Defence Minister (the Collins subs debacle notwithstanding). With an image that taught millions of Australians the meaning of word "avuncular", Beazley seemed a better bet to take the reins from Paul Keating than the short-tempered and dislikeable Gareth Evans. Although doomed to be remembered for his failures, it should never be forgotten how agonisingly close Beazley came to strangling the Howard Government in its infancy at the 1998 election, at which Labor scored a majority of both primary and two-party preferred votes and recovered 19 seats. His chances of finishing the job in 2001 were left in a screaming heap after the one-two knockout blow of the Tampa and September 11, but he still did a creditable job of limiting the damage. The real blots on his copybook were to follow. Beazley should have remained in the job rather than surrender it to the hapless Simon Crean, only to try taking it back again in June 2003 when Crean's inevitable failure had become apparent. That botched job ended with a 58-34 defeat in the caucus and was followed in December by an agonising and unexpected 47-45 vote defeat at the hands of Mark Latham when Crean stood aside. Until the election result is in, the jury will remain out on whether the party made the right choice. After recovering from a fluid leak around the brain in the following months, Beazley's return to the front bench in the Defence portfolio in July 2004 was seen to give Labor a fillip just as their opinion poll lead was starting to slip away. Liberal candidate Phil Edman shares his campaign office with self-styled "Independent Labour" candidate Gerard Kettle, whom he defeated for Liberal Party preselection. Some suspicious folk have gone so far as to suggest that Kettle might be a dummy candidate. Greens candidate Jean Jenkins was an Australian Democrats Senator from 1987 to 1990. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain As if to demonstrate that those who voted for Liberals for Forests (who, like Silverchair, will be spelt with capitals on this website whether they like it or not) really were Liberals, Liberal candidate Phil Edman managed to add no less than 15.9 per cent to his party's vote by devouring the 11.2 per cent that Liberals for Forests scored last time. The balance appeared to come at the expense of Kim Beazley, who without the aura of party leadership lost 4.6 per cent of his vote and had to go to preferences. OUTCOME: Labor retain (4.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CANNING (Liberal 0.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Don Randall won the eagerly contested Liberal pre-selection for the Perth seat of Swan going into the 1996 election, at which Kim Beazley was abandoning the seat as he no longer believed it could be held. Many considered that the man who brought Beazley to within 300 votes of defeat in 1993, Bryan Hilbert, deserved another go, but scary factional heavy Noel Crichton-Browne helped deliver the numbers to Randall (the two have since fallen out). Randall would later get into trouble for failing to disclose a police record on his party nomination form. The crowning achievement of his term as member for Swan came when he told parliament that Cheryl Kernot had "the morals of an alley cat on heat" (following Laurie Oakes' revelations concerning Kernot and Gareth Evans in 2002, the Prime Minister's office felt compelled to warn Randall not to gloat). A primary vote swing combined with One Nation preferences to Labor lost him his seat in 1998, but he remained a figure in factional party games working out of the office of Senator Ian Campbell. In 2000 Randall was responsible for signing up "phantom members" including eight staff from a catering firm promised Liberal Party contracts which they never heard back about, apparently to the benefit of former party president David Johnston's successful bid for Senate preselection. He was also able to win for himself preselection in Canning after a redistribution all but eliminated Labor's margin. During the campaign he was charged with refusing a breath test and later convicted, a matter he tried but failed to keep a lid on. Nevertheless the fractional swing he picked up was enough to narrowly get him over the line. Labor was on to its third candidate going into the campaign, losing the first through misfortune and the second through carelessness. Jane Gerick, Labor member from 1998 to 2001, was diagnosed with leukaemia a few months prior to her defeat in the November 2001 election but was nevertheless preselected to stand again in October 2003. After apparently having made a recovery she fell ill again died on Christmas Day, aged 39. With factional deals reserving the seat for the party's Centre faction, the nomination went to Cimlie Bowden, previously best known for an unsuccessful bid to unseat Australian Nursing Federation state secretary Mark Olson in 2001. Concerns soon emerged over Bowden's performance, Roger Martin of The Australian quoting Labor campaigners saying she "became upset at trivial matters, would not put enough effort into doorknocking and refused to take advice". The matter became public in August, with member for Cowan Graham Edwards calling for her replacement by his former state ministerial colleague Kay Hallahan. Just as senior figures in the WA branch including Premier Geoff Gallop resolved to persevere with her, if only because no mechanism existed to remove her, Bowden made an angrily worded announcement of her decision to withdraw. Hallahan was installed as candidate two days later. A former policewoman, Kay Hallahan was elected to state parliament at the February 1983 election that brought Brian Burke to power and was appointed to the ministry in the government's second term, about a year before Burke handed the reins to Peter Dowding. As the government slowly collapsed under the weight of WA Inc, Hallahan prospered in a series of portfolios largely quarantined from the government's shady deal-making, specifically Arts, Education and Community Services. Hallahan rose to the deputy party leadership after the government's defeat at the February 1993 election, but with a view to her forthcoming retirement she agreed to step aside in October 1994 in favour of a Jim McGinty-Geoff Gallop ticket (McGinty later making way for Gallop) and left parliament at the December 1996 election. She is currently chairperson of Save the Children. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Speaking just before the Prime Minister launched his campaign at the Perth Christian Life Centre, Don Randall said that Australians "want to know that they have got a Christian at the head of the Australian government", as distinct from the agnostic Mark Latham. The Prime Minister failed to back him up, telling reporters that "although I come from a Christian tradition myself, I respect fully the secular nature of our society". INTELLIGENCE: The West Australian reported on August 13 that poor Labor internal polling had a lot to do with the move against Cimlie Bowden. Five months earlier The Australian reported that it was the Liberals who were concerned, with internal polling conducted by Crosby-Textor showing them in trouble. In fairness to Bowden, this was consistent with a general revival in Coalition fortunes in polls conducted in Western Australia during the intervening period, and a poll conducted early in the campaign by The West Australian's Westpoll showed Hallahan had failed to reverse the trend. It had Liberal on 54 per cent, Labor 30 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent, although this was from a low sample of around 200. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain That Westpoll wasn't so far off the mark, except that it doubled the Greens vote. The result was the biggest swing of any seat in the country, an astounding 9.2 per cent shift in favour of Don Randall. His primary vote was up 10.9 per cent, and every other party that fielded a candidate in both 2001 and 2004 went backwards - Labor by 5.4 per cent, One Nation by 4.5 per cent, the Democrats by 2.6 per cent, the Greens by 0.3 per cent, and the Christian Democratic Party and Citizens Electoral Council by suitably insignificant amounts. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (9.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: A Canning Plan (19/8/04); Margin for Error (16/8/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum COWAN (Labor 5.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: Graham Edwards has been faultlessly stoic and self-effacing about the hand fate dealt him while serving in the Vietnam War, from which he returned minus his legs after stepping on a landmine. Edwards was a minister in the Burke/Dowding/Lawrence state Labor Government of 1983 to 1993, with his main portfolios of Consumer Affairs and Police and Emergency Services being unrelated to the areas in which that government was setting new standards for incompetence. Elected to the House of Representatives in 1998, he is currently serving as parliamentary secretary to the Shadow Defence Minister. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain It was a measure of Labor's poor show that Graham Edwards had a very nervous time of it on election night, which few had been predicting. The Liberal vote was up 8.3 per cent, at the expense of Labor (down 3.9 per cent), One Nation (3.7 per cent) and the Democrats (3 per cent). The result was a good but not quite good enough 4.7 per cent two-party swing. OUTCOME: Labor retain (0.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CURTIN (Liberal 14.0%)
THE CANDIDATES: Liberal member Julie Bishop is closely associated with Peter Costello, and reportedly thinks this has something to do with her failure to be promoted beyond the Aged Care portfolio. In any event, it will take Bishop a long time to live down her part in a scheme to have her installed as Western Australian Opposition Leader following the Court Government's defeat in the February 2001 election. The idea was that Bishop would swap seats with unpopular Liberal heir apparent Colin Barnett, thereby averting a Barnett leadership and mollifying him at the same time. Bishop signed on before anyone had consulted Barnett, who expressed extreme displeasure at the proposal after finding out about it from the morning newspaper. Coming to politics from a successful legal career, Bishop has presented a polished image that fits well with her western suburbs Perth electorate. The one puzzling aspect of her image has been her choice of partners, having been associated with the politically unorthodox Senator Ross Lightfoot and currently with Peter Nattrass, a Perth Lord Mayor with very firm ideas on what it means to be a man. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Liberals for Forests polled 2.3 per cent in 2001 and didn't field a candidate this time, which presumably has something to do with Julie Bishop's 4.4 per cent lift on the primary vote. Other sources may have included the Democrats (down 4.2 per cent) and One Nation (down 1.4 per cent). Labor were up marginally on the primary vote but lost 1.0 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (14.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum FORREST (Liberal 7.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: Geoff Prosser was a self-made millionaire at 21 and is reportedly the richest man in parliament, though Malcolm Turnbull may soon do something about that. Prosser entered parliament at the 1987 election and became Small Business and Consumer Affairs Minister upon the Howard Government's election in March 1996, but his rise came to an abrupt halt in July 1997 with revelations of conflicts of interest surrounding his involvement in the management of shopping centres. The worst of these was the use of his office to lobby Coles Myer to put a store in one of his shopping centres, but there was also the matter of his acting as a landlord to small business tenants he represented as minister. Labor's Tresslyn Smith is an officer for the Department of Consumer Protection. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain The results for this south-western seat carry a whiff of the logging policy effect about them - Labor was down 2.7 per cent, the Liberals were up 7.4 per cent and the Greens gained little from the collapse of the Democrats and One Nation. The outcome was a 3.1 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (10.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum FREMANTLE (Labor 10.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: With the Government's doom sealed by the unfolding WA Inc disaster, the Western Australian Labor Party made an astute move when it installed Education Minister Carmen Lawrence as Australia's first female premier in February 1990. The feel-good factor from her pioneering position combined with her undeniable professionalism and polish saved the party from the wipeout many felt it deserved at the 1993 state election, in stark contrast to the massacre inflicted upon a similarly placed Kirner Government in Victoria four months previously. Lawrence was still considered a rising star after her defeat and was fast-tracked into the Health portfolio when she moved into federal politics at a 1994 by-election, which appeared to reinvigorate a Keating Government that faced an Opposition still in the Hewson/Downer phase. Unfortunately Lawrence had left a time-bomb ticking from her time as Premier which her successor, Richard Court, was only too keen to set off. In October 1992 one of Lawrence's state Labor colleagues tabled a petition that falsely accused Court of providing confidential information to Penny Easton, who was engaged in a bitter divorce battle with a government favourite, Brian Easton. During the following week Penny Easton committed suicide and Lawrence denied any prior knowledge of the petition, claiming the MP had acted on his own initiative. After a few years disgruntled ministers came forward to declare that the matter had been the subject of a lively cabinet discussion in which Lawrence had told her more scrupulous colleagues to "get real". The Royal Commission that Court called to investigate the matter was clearly opportunistic, but few doubted the veracity of its conclusion that Lawrence's claim that she could not remember important details was not plausible. Despite enormous pressure Lawrence stubbornly refused to resign as Health Minister and Keating stood by her as his Government's last chances of survival slipped away. A year after its defeat she was charged with perjury over statements to the Royal Commission, but it appears the jury reached the sensible conclusion that anarchy would prevail if politicians were imprisoned for lying. Lawrence has since re-branded herself as Labor's conscience, snubbing floundering Labor leader Simon Crean in 2002 by abandoning her Aboriginal Affairs shadow portfolio on the grounds that the party had become "timid" and "conservative". She was applauded all the way to the party's National President position, giving her a pedestal from which to pronounce a political correctness that had not always been evident during a premiership that saw the introduction of mandatory sentencing laws and the establishment of the Port Hedland detention centre. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain In Labor's only historically secure Western Australian seat, Carmen Lawrence's vote fell 2.4 per cent to an uninspiring 44.6 per cent while the Liberal candidate gained 5.5 per cent to record 35.9 per cent. An otherwise familiar story, with the dividend from a sharply declining One Nation and Democrats scattered among various contestants. OUTCOME: Labor retain (7.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum HASLUCK (Labor 1.8%)
THE CANDIDATES: Sharryn Jackson came to parliament in 2001 after a long career as an official with the Miscellaneous Workers Union. Jackson hasn't made too much noise in her debut term, although she did all right with the Dick Smith crowd by "launching a fighting fund" against the American firm that had acquired the rights to the name "ugg boots" and was trying to do over honest Aussie battlers in the hard-done-by TCF sector. She voted for Simon Crean in the first challenge and was a late decider in Beazley's favour in the second. Liberal candidate Stuart Henry is the 58-year-old former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. INTELLIGENCE: The West Australian ran a 200-sample Westpoll survey on September 27 that had the Liberals on 40 per cent, Labor on 37 per cent and the Greens on 10 per cent, which would give Labor a slight edge after distribution of preferences. State Liberal Party director Paul Everingham was quoted early in the last week of the campaign saying "we are right in there in Hasluck, but it is going to be difficult for us in Stirling and Swan". ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN Sharryn Jackson had precious little fat on her margin and it only took a swing consistent with the national result to tip her out. Her primary vote remained about the same on 38.3 per cent, but her Liberal opponent was up 6 per cent at the expense of the Democrats and One Nation. That made the gap too wide for preferences from the disappointing Greens (up 1.2 to 6.9 per cent) to save her. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (1.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: State of Excitement (26/6/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum KALGOORLIE (Liberal 4.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Labor's initial candidate, Roebourne Shire mayor Kevin Richards, died of a heart attack on September 12 at the age of 65. This left Labor four days to find a replacement, and a deal was brokered in which Tom Stephens would abandon his place in the state upper house in order to run, on the understanding that he would be preselected for the lower house seat of Central Kimberley-Pilbara at the imminent state election if unsuccessful. Stephens first entered parliament in 1982 and served in minor portfolios in the last months of the Lawrence Government, and major ones (including Housing and Local Government) since the Gallop Government came to power in February 2001. Graeme Campbell will again take the field as an independent, citing encouragement from One Nation-turned-independent MLC John Fischer. This will involve a re-match with Barry Haase, the local businessman who defeated him as Liberal candidate in 1998. Haase's victory on that occasion probably surprised his party, given the expected impact of Pauline Hanson on electorates distant from the capital cities. He has proved rather more low-key than his predecessor and apart from his questionable assertion in 2001 that the Aborigines should not have been granted "equal rights" at the 1967 referendum (which they weren't), he has largely avoided contentious pronouncements. He did have his drivers' licence revoked in June for accumulated speeding offences, but it is well understood that this is a routine occupational hazard for regional Western Australian politicians. The 2.2 per cent swing Haase picked up in 2001 was Tampa-assisted and might have been higher if not for a campaign gaffe in which he indicated support for a GST on food. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Assessments of the state of play in Kalgoorlie were thrown into confusion by the death of Labor candidate Kevin Richards at the end of the second week of the campaign. Among those who put their names forward in the four days remaining before the closure of nominations were Megan Anwyl, who lost the state seat of Kalgoorlie against the trend of the February 2001 election; and even more interestingly, Labor-turned-independent state MP Larry Graham. Graham, who will retire from state politics at the coming election, held his seat of Pilbara in 2001 after losing Labor preselection to an unpopular candidate backed by Left unions. Those same unions thwarted his bid on this occasion, the nomination instead going to senior state upper house MP Tom Stephens. Stephens had been an active participant in the campaign even before then, accusing the Liberals of working to have transients and Aboriginals removed from the electoral roll by lodging objections against voter enrolments when campaign material failed to reach the addressee. If that was indeed their aim it appears it may not be successful. An AEC spokesman told The West Australian it was "difficult" to remove people from the roll as the Commission had to "send three letters and have them returned with information that the elector was no longer at that address before they could be struck off". It is certainly to be hoped so, because a narrow defeat for Labor in Kalgoorlie could mean a narrow defeat for Labor in the election, in which case the controversy would put the popular Bush-stole-Florida theory in the shade. INTELLIGENCE: On September 10, Roger Martin of The Australian reported that "if you believe those in the Liberal headquarters in Perth and Canberra, internal polling early this year showed it is a seat the party is in grave danger of losing". The Poll Bludger also heard talk of polling "without any Aboriginal respondents" showing the two major parties at line-ball on two-party preferred. That may have been correct at the time, but it now seems that Barry Haase is in the clear. The West Australian ran a 200-sample Westpoll survey on September 27 that had the Liberals on 42 per cent, Labor on 32 per cent and Graeme Campbell on 10 per cent. Campbell appears to be struggling for oxygen in an electorate where a young population and high emigration rate will have eroded much of his old support base, but he may at least be having a spoiling effect on Labor. Tellingly, Campbell told the West Australian "it will be my preferences that decide the outcome of the election", hesitating to add, "I'm in it to win it and I think I can do it". Campbell is refusing to direct preferences to either major party unless they agree to a California-style citizens-initiated referedum concept. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain It's a good thing Tom Stephens wasn't staking his career on this move, as Labor's vote was down 3.1 per cent to 31.9. Impressively Barry Haase managed to add 2.9 per cent to his primary vote (now at 45.5 per cent) despite competition from Graeme Campbell, who recorded a rather underwhelming 10.3 per cent. Another good performance from Westpoll. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (6.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MOORE (Liberal 6.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: Former general practitioner Mal Washer has kept a fairly low profile since his election in 1998, but he enjoyed a burst of publicity in June 2004 when he threw a spanner into the works of one of the Government's pre-election wedge politics measures. Washer led a successful revolt against plans to allow parents greater access to their children's medical records, on the grounds that his experiences as a GP suggested it could lead to suicides. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Moore is the kind of interest rate-sensitive electorate that came out strongly for the Liberals, adding 6.4 per cent to their primary vote to push Mal Washer well over 50 per cent. Labor was down 2.2 per cent on the primary vote and 4.8 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (10.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum O'CONNOR (Liberal 19.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: The oldest member of Federal Parliament, Wilson Tuckey acquired his "Iron Bar" nickname through his methods of dealing with troublesome Aboriginal patrons in his days as a Carnarvon publican. Anyone needing reminding of the Liberal Party's state in the 1980s is invited to dwell on the fact that Tuckey held shadow portfolios including Health, Housing and Small Business, and Employment and Training. While Tuckey's success in riling Paul Keating in his role as frontline Liberal attack dog in the 1980s may have been of net benefit to the party, it would not be too much of a stretch to hold him single-handedly responsible for the Coalition's defeat at the 1990 election. Tuckey did a good deal of Andrew Peacock's dirty work when John Howard was turfed out as Liberal leader in 1989 and was clearly impressed with himself when it came off, because he boasted about it in a Four Corners interview less than a week after the event. His revelations gave lie to Peacock's pretence that he had played no part in any manoeuvering against Howard, which ended his honeymoon period before it had begun. Tuckey made the front bench under Howard because there was no other Western Australian candidate he considered acceptable, and anyone who doubts that the Prime Minister has a sense of humour should consider his decision to assign him to Forestry and Conservation. Tuckey's career on the front line came to an end in August 2003 with the emergence of a letter he had sent with ministerial letterhead to South Australian Police Minister Patrick Conlon, in which he demanded his intervention to overturn his son's traffic fine. Tuckey appeared to believe either that Conlon would be a good sport and not use the letter against him, or that it would not be politically damaging if he did. As Tuckey's position became untenable reports emerged of his growingly erratic behaviour. Glenn Milne reported in The Australian that "MPs say that in the partyroom he's prone to irrelevant and embarrassing outbursts". After a discreet interval, the Prime Minister relieved Tuckey of his portfolio responsibilities, no doubt providing him with the sort of satisfaction that keeps him going. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Why wouldn't you reward Wilson Tuckey with an extra 3.8 per cent of the primary vote and a 1.1 per cent swing on two-party preferred? That at least was one question the voters of O'Connor couldn't answer. The 7.4 per cent of the vote that went missing from One Nation no doubt helped. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (20.2%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum PEARCE (Liberal 6.9%)
THE CANDIDATES: Judi Moylan's background before entering politics was in real estate - the Poll Bludger will do his level best not to hold this against her. Moylan entered the shadow ministry when Alexander Downer became Liberal leader in 1994 and was made Family Services Minister when the Howard Government came to power. Her portfolio responsibilities in the dangerous area of aged care proved her undoing and she was demoted to Minister for the Status of Women in October 1997, then dumped from the ministry altogether after the 1998 election. For the holder of such a safe seat Moylan has often appeared sensitive to the fluctuations of the opinion polls, having panicked out loud about the GST during the Government's first term and lobbied in favour of Treasurer Peter Costello's populist decision to turn down Shell's bid for Woodside. Others might argue that she has been as a voice of sensible moderate dissent against the Howard Government grain, and point to her abstention from voting on the Tampa legislation. Labor candidate David Ritter is the 33-year-old president of the WA Society of Labor Lawyers and son of a Czech Jewish refugee. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain The Poll Bludger is not quite sure what to make of the Liberals' outstanding performance in Perth's hinterland and satellite towns, as demonstrated here and in Canning. Judi Moylan was up 8.8 per cent on the primary vote, inflicting damage on Labor (down 2.2 per cent), One Nation (down 5.0 per cent) and the Democrats (down 2.9 per cent). The result was a 6.0 per cent swing that almost doubled her already comfortable margin. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (12.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum PERTH (Labor 11.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: From a legal background, Stephen Smith entered the political arena with a job as principal private secretary to Western Australian Attorney-General Joe Berinson in 1983. He became state secretary of the ALP in 1987, was an adviser to Paul Keating from 1991 and entered parliament in 1993. Smith was elevated to the shadow ministry after the Keating Government's defeat in 1996, being counted a strong performer as he moved from Trade, Resources and Energy to Communications to Health and Ageing between 1996 and 2001. His decision to withdraw from the shadow ministry after being a key player in Kim Beazley's failed challenge in June 2003 earned him a good deal of kudos, and his return to the front bench as Immigration spokesman after Mark Latham's win warmed hearts the nation over. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Labor did rather better in inner-city seats in other states than they did here, although the name of this electorate is deceptive - much of its territory is more comparable with western Sydney, where Labor also lost ground. Stephen Smith was down 2.3 per cent, while the Liberals were up 4.6 per cent on primary and 4.5 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (6.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum STIRLING (Labor 1.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: Jann McFarlane came to parliament with a background in the Australian Social Welfare Union via the Australian Services Union, and has devoted much of her current term to anti-war and pro-refugee activism which would be passing largely unnoticed by most of her constituents, if I remember my home turf correctly. A health scare in early 2004 raised questions about her political future, but she appears set on another term. The Liberals thought they had landed a pretty fair catch when they endorsed millionaire businessman Paul Afkos, but it soon emerged that he had borrowed $300,000 from a man he knew to be a convicted drug trafficker. Afkos stood aside and "senior party officials" reacted quickly by drafting Michael Keenan, real estate salesman and former adviser to Immigration Minister Amanda Vanstone. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Jann McFarlane's national profile received an unwelcome boost when a talkback caller described by Michael Brissenden of the ABC as "a stay-at-home mum who just happened to have been conducting some timely internet research" asked a curly question about the impact of Labor's tax policy on people like herself. McFarlane's response - that Labor was "looking for where the disadvantage is and what we can do to adjust the policy" - was seized on by the Prime Minister who responded with his now-celebrated Hilton sisters impersonation. The following day Mark Latham had to concede that scrapping the Coalition's family payments would indeed leave her worse off; it was little comfort to Labor when the talkback caller was revealed to be a Liberal Party activist. INTELLIGENCE: Stirling had earlier been nominated as the seat that Labor were most nervous about in Western Australia, with Louise Dodson of the Sydney Morning Herald reporting concerns as early as May. Don Randall, Liberal member for Canning, would certainly have had the seat in mind when he said: "If we don’t pick up two in WA I’d be surprised". However, The West Australian ran a 200-sample Westpoll survey on September 27 that had Labor ahead 40 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote. State Liberal Party president Paul Everingham was quoted early in the last week of the campaign saying "we are right in there in Hasluck, but it is going to be difficult for us in Stirling and Swan". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Poll Bludger has brought dishonour upon his family by failing to accurately predict the outcome in the electorate that nurtured him. Michael Keenan added a remarkable 7.1 per cent to the Liberal vote from 2001, gouging 2.3 per cent from Labor to achieve a 3.6 per cent two-party swing. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, other casualties included the Democrats (down 4.5 per cent) and One Nation (down 2.5 per cent). The Greens' solid vote of 7.2 per cent is worth noting, the electorate's beachside suburbs being home to a sub-culture not unlike that found on the New South Wales north coast. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (2.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: State of Excitement (26/6/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum SWAN (Labor 2.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: In the period before the election campaign, Liberal candidate Andrew Murfin suffered a series of self-inflicted wounds that may have put the seat out of his reach. Murfin, a former Perth and Belmont Councillor and unsuccessful candidate for the state seat of South Perth in 2001, has twice been rebuked by the Salvation Army for trading off his association with them. The first of these incidents involved a flattering profile of Murfin by Peter Sweeney of Perth's Sunday Times which focused mostly on his work a Salvos volunteer, and beat up his electoral achievements as candidate for South Perth. The second, more damaging incident involved revelations his campaign office had been responsible for a series of bogus letters to local newspapers. One of these intimated (albeit rather obliquely) at opponent Kim Wilkie's marriage break-up and accused him of failing to attend a "crime powwow" he had organised. The letter was signed by an elderly local Salvos member but Murfin was eventually forced to admit that it originated from his office, after the distressed woman was publicly dragged into a messy political controversy. Murfin lay low as the furore enveloped him, at one point failing to attend a "crime powwow" he had organised. The beneficiary of Murfin's mishaps, Kim Wilkie, became member in 1998 via South Perth City Council and earlier careers as a farmer and prison officer. Wilkie survived unwelcome publicity in late 2000 and early 2001 when he was accused of using his office as headquarters for Stephen Smith's "New Right" faction. The leak of travel allowance information to the Left faction prompted claims that car travel reimbursements were being used to fund party memberships. However it proved to be nothing on a scale sufficient to cause electoral damage, and he suffered a swing of less than 1 per cent at the 2001 election. Wilkie has kept his nose clean since and built a solid local profile, although he may regret having dismissed Latham as inexperienced in the days prior to the December 2 leadership vote. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Kim Wilkie kept his Liberal opponent Andrew Murfin squirming over the letters scandal as the campaign began by lodging a complaint with the Police Commissioner. INTELLIGENCE: Swan was one of two seats for which The West Australian's Westpoll conducted small sample surveys in the first week of the campaign, both of which pointed to disastrous results for Labor. Excluding the undecided, Liberal were on 48 per cent, Labor 36 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent. However, state Liberal Party director Paul Everingham was quoted in The Australian early in the final week of the campaign saying "we are right in there in Hasluck, but it is going to be difficult for us in Stirling and Swan". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Swan proved to be the election's biggest nail-biter, such that there can be no real question that Andrew Murfin's misadventures cost the Liberals the seat. Murfin was still able to add 5.2 per cent to the Liberal primary vote, while Kim Wilkie was down 1.4 per cent. That left a 4.2 per cent gap in Murfin's favour, with a solid flow of preferences from the Greens vote of 8.3 per cent (up 2.4 per cent) narrowly saving the day for Wilkie. OUTCOME: Labor retain (0.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: State of Excitement (26/6/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum TANGNEY (Liberal 8.0%)
THE CANDIDATES: Communications Minister Daryl Williams' announcement of his retirement in May 2004 prompted a preselection contest that attracted 12 candidates. The best known of these was Melville Mayor Katherine Jackson, who nonetheless finished well back in the field. The nomination instead went to Dennis Jensen, a defence scientist. Senator Ian Campbell earlier had his eye on the seat, unsuccessfully attempting to have the preselection taken out of the hands of local branches controlled by rival power-brokers Doug Shave and Graham Kierath, who both lost their seats at the 2001 state election. That led to talk that Campbell might cut a deal to secure Shave and Kierath's support in return for which Campbell would back Shave's bid for a seat in the WA upper house, although the idea was alternately derided and denied. Also mentioned was state front-bencher Mike Board, although he has since announced his retirement from politics and looks as though he means it. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain In light of the loss of the respected Daryl Williams' personal vote, Dennis Jensen did very well to add 3.9 per cent to the Liberal primary vote, sapping 3.3 per cent from Labor in the process and picking up a 3.8 per cent two-party swing. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (11.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||