Federal Election 2004
VICTORIA
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||
| Region | Non-Labor electorates | Labor electorates | Region | Central | (2.2) McEWEN | BALLARAT (3.3) | Central West |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Regional | (2.6) GIPPSLAND | BENDIGO (3.6) | Central |
| Eastern Regional | (2.9) McMILLAN | JAGAJAGA (5.4) | North-East Melbourne |
| Outer Melbourne | (3.7) LA TROBE | MELBOURNE PORTS (5.7) | Inner Melbourne |
| Outer Melbourne | (5.2) DUNKLEY | BRUCE (6.5) | Eastern Melbourne |
| Western Coastal | (5.4) CORANGAMITE | ISAACS (6.6) | Outer Melbourne |
| Outer Melbourne | (6.1) ASTON | HOLT (7.9) | Outer Melbourne |
| Outer Melbourne | (7.2) CASEY | CORIO (8.5) | Geelong |
| Melbourne Fringe | (7.5) FLINDERS | HOTHAM (11.1) | Melbourne South-East |
| Inner Melbourne | (8.4) HIGGINS | LALOR (12.1) | Outer Melbourne |
| Eastern Melbourne | (8.9) MENZIES | CALWELL (15.1) | Outer Melbourne |
| Western Regional | (9.5) WANNON | MARIBYRNONG (15.4) | Western Melbourne |
| Inner Melbourne | (9.6) GOLDSTEIN | MELBOURNE (19.9) | Inner Melbourne |
| North-East | (10.7) INDI | GORTON (20.2) | Outer Melbourne |
| Inner Melbourne | (11.1) KOOYONG | SCULLIN (20.3) | Northern Melbourne |
| North-West Regional | (20.9) MALLEE | GELLIBRAND (20.4) | Western Melbourne |
| Northern Regional | (21.9) MURRAY | WILLS (20.6) | North-West Melbourne |
| BATMAN (25.1) | Northern Melbourne | ||
Key - Australian Labor Party Liberal Party National Party Independent * Region classifications are based on those used by Antony Green in his election summaries at ABC Elections. | |||
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ASTON (Liberal 6.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: A Knox City Councillor and managing director for BEA Systems ("specialists in e-commerce infrastructures", apparently) Chris Pearce certainly looked the goods when put up against Labor's 27-year-old Kieran Boland, who faced him at the polls on both occasions in 2001. This time his opponent is Paul Morgan, described by the Free Press Leader as a "teacher-in-training and father of four". CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Aston takes in part of the proposed route for the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway, which the Bracks Government's solemnly promised would not be a tollway but then changed their mind after the election. This became a live issue early in the campaign when Mark Latham resolved to find other uses for the $445 million the Federal Government was withholding from the project due to the Bracks Government's insistence on tolls, namely road projects elsewhere in Victoria. The Government kept the issue alive by promising an extra $120 million for the project if Bracks backed down, knowing perfectly well that he wouldn't. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain It didn't get much better for the Liberals than in this religious, outer-suburban McMansions type electorate. Chris Pearce added 7.9 per cent on the primary vote and 7.4 per cent on two-party preferred, removing 6 per cent from Labor in the process. Greg Sheridan noted in The Weekend Australian on October 23 that the seat "was held by Labor all through the 1980s and is classic mortgage-belt territory", but "is now safer Liberal than Kooyong". OUTCOME: Liberal retain (13.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BALLARAT (Labor 3.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: Catherine King came to parliament at age 35 after holding senior positions in the Department of Health and Aged Care and KPMG Consulting and was once winner of the Victorian Young Achiever of the Year award. Like most female Labor MPs - particularly Victorian ones - she lined up against Beazley in both the 2003 leadership contests. If the Liberals fail to recover this seat it won't be for want of media coverage for their candidate Elizabeth Matuschka, who has had at least as high a profile in the local press throughout this year as her opponent. Greens candidate Tony Kelly is the brother of singer-songwriter Paul Kelly. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain With One Nation and the Democrats exiting the field all and sundry managed to improve their primary vote from 2001, with high-profile Liberal candidate Elizabeth Matuschka picking up an extra 2.4 per cent and a 1.0 per cent swing on two-party preferred. It was a notably week effort from the Greens whose vote didn't budge at all, even though the Democrats' 4.6 per cent from 2001 was there for the taking. OUTCOME: Labor retain (2.2%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BATMAN (Labor 25.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: The parachuting of Sydney-born union leader Martin Ferguson into this inner Melbourne electorate maintained a tradition established by Bob Hawke's entry in Wills in 1980. Like Hawke, Ferguson was a nationally recognisable figure in the union movement, first as federal secretary of the Miscellaneous Workers Union from 1984 and then as ACTU president from 1990. However his entry into parliament in 1996 coincided with Labor's march through the wilderness, and he has since had to be content with various shadow ministries (Employment, Training, Transport, Regional Development ...) and endless factional game play. Along with brother Laurie, Ferguson is a focal point for a sub-faction of the Left that at one time had a vocal critic in Mark Latham, who said of Ferguson, "the poor (expletive) can barely string two words together and get his tounge around the English language" (quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald on 31 March 2001). All was not rosy within the Ferguson camp when Martin felt obliged to join John Faulkner and Jenny Macklin among those tapping long-time friend and ally Simon Crean on the shoulder in November 2003. Martin would subsequently vote for Kim Beazley while Laurie rose above the jibes to support Latham, lining up with the remainder of the Crean camp. Maxwell Gratton has been generating more publicity as a Carlton Football Club activist agitating for the club to remain based at Optus Oval than for his role as the no-chance Liberal candidate in Labor's safest seat. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Australia's safest electorate no more, Martin Ferguson fell 3.4 per cent on the primary vote and 4.1 per cent on two-party preferred. The Greens may have harboured dim hopes of overtaking the Liberals but they didn't come close, their 13.9 per cent barely more than half of the Liberals' 26 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (21.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BENDIGO (Labor 3.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: The Poll Bludger will leave to others the jokes waiting to be made about this contest between Labor's Steve Gibbons and Liberal Kevin Gibbins. Member since 1998, Gibbons has a low profile nationally but seems to work hard at the local level. He backed Crean and Latham in the leadership challenges. Gibbins was one of two Greater Bendigo City Councillors contesting preselection, winning out over Greg Williams. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain An early indication on election night of just how far out of the hunt Labor was came when it emerged that they were struggling to hold this apparently secure seat. In the end Kevin Gibbins added 6 per cent to the Liberal vote and shaved Labor's two-party margin by 2.6 per cent. Family First did well in comparison with other Victorian lower house seats, scoring 3.7 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (0.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BRUCE (Labor 6.5%)
THE CANDIDATES: A figure of considerable influence in the Socialist Left faction, Alan Griffin was promoted to the front-bench when Carmen Lawrence stood aside in December 2002 and given the Consumer Protection portfolio in July 2003. He does not seem to have suffered from his decision to go against his faction in supporting Kim Beazley over Mark Latham, and now holds the Consumer Affairs portfolio. Liberal candidate Angela Randall is a former manager in the health industry who lists her present occupation as "full-time candidate for Bruce". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain In a sobering result for Alan Griffin that was typical of Labor's overall poor show in the once-decisive eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Labor dropped 2.3 per cent on primary with the Liberals up 3.6 per cent, translating into a 3 per cent swing to Liberal on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CALWELL (Labor 15.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: Maria Vamvakinou came to her safe seat with all the right connections, having worked for Joan Kirner and Senator Kim Carr as well as her predecessor, Andrew Theophanous. Although the charges laid against Theophanous in 2000 would have ended his career in any case, Vamvakinou assumed the party's nomination under acrimonious circumstances, so much so that Theophanous ran against her as an independent at the 2001 election despite the clouds hanging over him. Like most of her Victorian Left colleagues Vamvakinou voted against Beazley in both the 2003 leadership ballots. Liberal candidate Dianne Livett also ran here way back in 1990 and 1993. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Perhaps Labor can plead that the redistribution robbed them of the benefit of an incumbent member for most of the redrawn electorate, but the result here still stands as testament to Labor's growing detachment from its wage-earning electoral base. The Liberal vote was up a stunning 8.8 per cent, translating into a 7.1 per cent swing on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CASEY (Liberal 7.2%)
THE CANDIDATES: Tony Smith worked for Peter Costello from 1990 until his entry into parliament in 2001 and has continued to be very closely associated with him since. Labor candidate Tony Dib made headlines in April 2004 by doing his level best to distance himself from the Bracks Government's broken promise over tolls on the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway, telling The Age he would "not try to defend someone who goes back on their word". ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Yet another marginal seat that has moved into the safe Liberal column, Tony Smith added 5.1 per cent to his primary vote and 4.2 per cent to his margin. Labor's primary vote was down 3.6 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (11.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CHISHOLM (Labor 2.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: Anna Burke was national industrial officer for the Financial Services Union prior to entering parliament. Her success in winning an important marginal seat at two elections notwithstanding, she has not been marked for promotion. A devout Catholic, her most public moment came as she agonised over whether to vote for the stem cell research bill, ultimately deciding to do so against her family's wishes. Liberal candidate Stephen Hartney, described by the Waverley Leader newspaper as a "small business owner", has been keeping a pretty low profile aside from some campaigning on the important local issue of the Bracks Government's broken promise on tolls for the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway. The Poll Bludger is pleased to note that independent candidate Owen Lysaght has pilfered the above table for his very flash website. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The Mitcham-Frankston Freeway became a live issue early in the campaign when Mark Latham resolved to find other uses for the $445 million the Federal Government was withholding from the project due to the Bracks Government's insistence on tolls, namely road projects elsewhere in Victoria. The Government kept the issue alive by promising an extra $120 million for the project if Bracks backed down, knowing perfectly well that he wouldn't. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain It is perhaps a measure of the advantages of incumbency that Labor was able to hold its ground against the local trend in the seat, picking up 1.6 per cent on the primary vote and losing a fractional 0.1 per cent on two-party preferred. That said, Labor suffered a big swing in the similar electorate of Isaacs. OUTCOME: Labor retain (2.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CORANGAMITE (Liberal 5.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Government Whip Stewart McArthur has held the seat since 1984 but this time he first had to face a preselection challenge from a former staff member, Jenny Blake. McArthur served as president of the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party and with various farmers' organisations before entering parliament but his highest office since has been parliamentary secretary positions held prior to the 1993 election. Labor candidate Peter McMullin is a former Deputy Lord Mayor of Melbourne who tried to go one better at the first-ever direct election for the Lord Mayor's position in 2001, finishing third with 14 per cent of the vote despite running with the endorsement of Premier Steve Bracks. He was described at the time by Crikey as a "pro-Palestine, former Communist, Bracks-backed Spotless heir and Carlton solicitor". The first two of these designations led to a stinging attack in parliament from Liberal MP Christopher Pyne in June 2004. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Labor's high hopes for the seat appeared to be indicated when the Bracks Government announced $12 million in funding for safety upgrades on the Great Ocean Road in the second week of the campaign. INTELLIGENCE: The Liberals obviously have their concerns about Corangamite, which has been on the receiving end of repeated visits from the Prime Minister. Labor polling results leaked to the Geelong Advertiser on April 23, just in time for one of these visits, give some idea why. Reportedly involving no less than 2000 respondents, the more recent poll had Labor with 51 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, confirming a poll conducted three weeks earlier that had them on 50.5 per cent. The Poll Bludger heard talk mid-campaign that Labor remain confident. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain This seat's demographic drift no doubt explains Labor's relatively strong performance here, improving fractionally on two-party preferred and by 3.2 per cent on the primary vote (though this compared with a 4.9 per cent increase for the Liberals). OUTCOME: Liberal retain (5.3%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CORIO (Labor 8.5%)
THE CANDIDATES: From his election in 1993 Gavan O'Connor rose to the shadow ministry in 1998 and currently holds the agriculture and fisheries portfolio. Nevertheless there was talk of a threat to O'Connor's preselection and of nomination of sitting members being brought forward by the party to head off developing branch-stacking campaigns against him and other members. In this case Crikey nominated the culprit as ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles assisted by "slippery mates from the Turkish community". Liberal canddiate Bruce King is a client services manager at Skilled Engineering. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Although Gavan O'Connor remains unendangered, this was yet another alarming result for Labor who dropped 1.9 per cent on the primary vote despite a no-contest from the Australian Democrats who polled 6.9 per cent in 2001. This transferred into a 3.0 per cent swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (5.5%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum DEAKIN (Liberal 1.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: Philip Barresi, the first Italian-born Liberal to enter Federal Parliament, worked as a psychologist before entering parliament and has remained on the back bench since, only coming to attention in the media when it's time to write marginal seat profiles. Labor's candidate is Peter Lynch, a physician and health adminstrator with an impressive CV. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: In the first week of the campaign, Mark Latham announced that the $420 million the Federal Government was withholding from the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway project due to the Victorian Government's plan for tolls would instead be allocated to other road projects around Victoria. Michael Harvey of the Herald Sun argued that with federal Labor's acceptance that the Bracks Government had made tolls inevitable, "any chance Labor had of winning the Ringwood-based seat of Deakin has all but gone". The Government turned the knife the following week by offering an extra $120 million if the Victorian Government scrapped tolls, knowing full well that they wouldn't. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain A good night at the office for Phil Barresi, whose 3.6 per cent boost to his primary vote gave him victory without going to preferences. Labor was down 2.4 per cent. The 3.4 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals was almost exactly equal with the state average, suggesting the Scoresby Freeway might not have been much of a factor. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (5.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum DUNKLEY (Liberal 5.2%)
THE CANDIDATES: Bruce Billson has by all accounts worked his electorate conscientiously in his three terms but has never looked like emerging from the back bench. Labor candidate Helen Constas is executive officer with the Peninsula Community Legal Centre. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The Mitcham-Frankston Freeway became a live issue early in the campaign when Mark Latham resolved to find other uses for the $445 million the Federal Government was withholding from the project due to the Bracks Government's insistence on tolls, namely road projects elsewhere in Victoria. The Government kept the issue alive by promising an extra $120 million for the project if the Victorian Government scrapped tolls, knowing full well that they wouldn't. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain What would once have been considered a potentially winnable seat for Labor may have entered the blue column for good, with Bruce Billson increasing his primary vote by a thumping 5.8 per cent to take him well over the half-way mark. That translated into a 4.2 per cent swing on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (9.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum FLINDERS (Liberal 7.5%)
THE CANDIDATES: Greg Hunt is the son of state upper house veteran Alan Hunt and was a Fulbright scholar at Yale, after which he held jobs as adviser to Alexander Downer (as both Opposition Leader and Foreign Minister) and director of strategy at the World Economic Forum in Geneva. He is widely regarded as a good performer and an up-and-comer. Labor's candidate is local winery manager Simon Napthine, a much better fit for the electorate than their candidate from 2001, Wayne Finch of the Maritime Union of Australia, who over-zealous folk in the Victorian ALP nominated in the fond hope that he would inflict poetic justice upon Peter Reith. Interestingly, Napthine is the brother of Denis, the state Liberal MP and former Opposition Leader whose name the Prime Minister couldn't pronounce. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain For those of us who thought Labor had penalised themselves in 2001 by fielding a poor quality candidate, the 3.7 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals here seems a doubly impressive achievement. Greg Hunt's 6.7 per cent boost to his primary vote provides more evidence that he has a bright future ahead of him. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (11.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum GELLIBRAND (Labor 20.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Nicola Roxon has had a complicated relationship with the prevailing Victorian factions. After finishing her law degree she worked as an industrial lawyer and spent two years as a judge's associate to Justice Mary Gaudron of the High Court, then became an officer with the powerful National Union of Workers. However it was under the patronage of Bill Shorten of the rival Australian Workers Union that she was ushered into the ultra-safe seat of Gellibrand in 1998 while still in her twenties, although she has apparently fallen out with him as well. Roxon actively opposed Kim Beazley in both leadership challenges and was rewarded for her efforts with swift promotions, firstly from Children and Youth to Immigration and then to Shadow Attorney-General, becoming the youngest woman ever to hold that position. Liberal candidate David McConnell had a go against Julia Gillard in Lalor at the previous election. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Another big swing against Labor in their big city heartland, Nicola Roxon dropping 4.4 per cent of her vote with her Liberal opponent up 5.3 per cent, for a two-party swing of 5.4 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (15.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum GIPPSLAND (National 2.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: With brother Julian in the Senate, Peter McGauran is part of a Gippsland family dynasty that dominates the Victorian National Party. McGauran entered politics in his late twenties after a six year legal career, winning a seat the National Party had traditionally been expected to hold with double-digit margins. As a Victorian National Party MP he was untainted by the Joh for PM fiasco and rose to the shadow ministry in its aftermath in 1988. He has maintained troubled relations with the Queensland branch of the party, one later sticking point being his support for the Government's post-Port Arthur guns crackdown. Upon the election of the Howard Government he was made Science and Technology Minister but had to relinquish the position as part of the Howard Government's first major crisis in October 1997 (back when Howard was still taking his ministerial code of conduct seriously) after he misled parliament over irregularities in his air charter expenses. After the following year's election he was given the Arts portfolio and another election later was again made Science Minister. The following year came the shock of the Victorian redistribution that all but eliminated his margin. Given that McGauran's electorate has been undergoing population decline for decades he should have seen coming its imminent absorption of safe Labor Morwell and Traralgon, but has by all accounts paid little effort to shoring up his support locally over the years. The potential beneficiary of this is Don Wishart, Labor candidate and former Australian Education Union organiser. Wishart also ran for the local upper house seat at the 2002 state election. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Peter McGauran was embarrassed during the fourth week of the campaign when it emerged the Department of Environment had made a submission calling on the Victorian Government to deny access to the Alpine National Park high country by mountain cattlemen, who had been assured by McGauran as their local member that they had the Government's support. After the release of Labor's forestry policy in the last week of the campaign, CFMEU-backed independent candidate Peter Kelly - "predicted to receive more than 10 per cent of the local vote", according to Brad Norington of The Australian - registered his protest by directing preferences to McGauran. INTELLIGENCE: Dennis Shanahan reported in The Australian on September 17 that the Nationals were "less alarmed" than they had been, although the Poll Bludger hears talk of other internal polling showing Labor in front. ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain With Labor having been talking up its chances in Gippsland for some time, the outcome was nothing less than an embarrassment for them, with most citing this as a mainland example of the Labor forestry policy effect. The Coalition was up 6.0 per cent on the primary vote and 5.2 per cent on two-party preferred. Despite the fact that 9.9 per cent of the vote went to various independents in 2001 and was there for the taking this time (contrary to Brad Norington's assessment, Peter Kelly managed only 3.7 per cent), Labor recorded a negligible improvement on the primary vote. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (7.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum GOLDSTEIN (Liberal 9.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: When David Kemp announced his retirement the names of former federal director Andrew Robb and former state president Michael Kroger were immediately floated, but Kroger allowed the opportunity to be added to the long list he has knocked back owing to business and family interests and Robb was eventually unopposed. Robb had long been spoken of in relation to safe seats in New South Wales, his home for the past two decades, but he originally hails from Victoria where he was raised in a large working-class Catholic family that supported the Democratic Labor Party. Like Peter Costello, Robb moved in influential New Right circles after establishing himself in student politics, leading a crusade against the campus left's dominance of the La Trobe University student council. Robb moved on to a job at the newly established and soon-to-be hugely influential National Farmers Federation, becoming executive director in 1985. At around that time the NFF was creating industrial relations history by bank-rolling the Mudginberri abattoir and Dollar Sweets during their landmark legal actions against militant unions. After leaving the NFF in 1988 Robb worked on the Liberal secretariat, as chief-of-staff to Andrew Peacock leading into the 1990 election, and then as federal party director. The 1990 and 1993 elections didn't do his reputation many favours but most laid the blame elsewhere. In 1994 however many in the party held him responsible for a leak of party polling with which Kerry O'Brien was able to embarrass John Hewson during an appearance on the 7:30 Report, which led directly to his demise as leader. In her book on the 1996 federal election campaign, The Victory, Pamela Williams recounted that when John Howard assumed the Liberal leadership in 1995 he had to be talked out of dumping him (by, among others, Michael Kroger, who "declared that he would bet his life on Robb's trustworthiness"). The 1996 election result was seen to vindicate all concerned and Robb moved on, launching Conservatives for an Australian Head of State before the 1999 republic referendum and a business career that proved rather more successful, setting up the successful marketing company Acxiom for Kerry Packer. Labor have nominated Bayside City Councillor Craig Tucker, who the council website describes as a former naval officer while being a bit vague on what he does now. These profiles do not normally cover outgoing members in great depth, but this one is an exception as the member's belated retirement meant it had already been written, and there seems little merit in removing it. David Kemp, BA (Hons), LLB (Melb), PhD (Yale), son of Liberal Party pioneer CD Kemp and brother of Senator Rod Kemp, was professor of Politics at Monash University throughout the 1980s and at various times was senior adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser and director of his office. After the Fraser Government's defeat he became closely associated with the free-market "new right" movement, being a leading figure with the Crossroads Conferences, the Australian Institute of Public Policy, the HR Nicholls Society, and other such. In 1989 Kemp launched his momentous preselection challenge against Ian Macphee, a former icon to the party's moderates who had gone too far with his criticisms of the party due to his inability to stomach John Howard as leader. Howard's refusal to intervene on Macphee's behalf drew fire from party figures including Malcolm Fraser and John Gorton and the Andrew Peacock camp took advantage of the resulting sense of crisis to unseat him. Kemp prevailed and immediately upon his entry into parliament became the Hewson Opposition's Education spokesperson and, more importantly, a chief architect of the Fightback! package. His parliamentary biography contains the following unforgettable entry: "Joint Shadow Minister Assisting the Leader of the Opposition on Transition to Government from 28.4.92 to 7.4.93". Kemp went down a peg for a while, holding relatively minor portfolio responsibilities during the final term in opposition and then serving as junior to Attorney-General Amanda Vanstone. After the 1998 election he was elevated to Education Minister and then went sideways to Environment after 2001. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Andrew Robb enjoyed an effortless entry into parliament untroubled by so much as a "doctors' wives" effect - he improved 3.2 per cent on David Kemp's vote from 2001 and 0.6 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (10.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum GORTON (Labor 20.2%)
THE CANDIDATES: Brendan O'Connor is a one-time official of the Municipal Employees Union and the Australian Services Union aligned with the Ferguson grouping of Labor's Left. For what it's worth O'Connor shaded Simon Crean to win the title of Labor's most prolific parliamentary speech-giver during 2003. Liberal candidate Susan Jennison is if nothing else a bona fide local, being author of a number of books on the history of Keilor. She stood against Victorian Attorney-General Rob Hulls in Niddrie at the 2002 state election. ASSESSMENT: Labor to win Labor did suffer a handicap by being largely deprived of the incumbent member in this new electorate, but the 5 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals was not wildly out of the ordinary for Labor's Melbourne heartland. It is fair to say that the 8.4 per cent improvement in the Liberal primary vote would have been at the higher end of market expectations. OUTCOME: Labor retain (15.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum HIGGINS (Liberal 8.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Peter Costello first came to attention as a conservative in student politics who forged an alliance with Labor moderates to achieve inevitably short-lived successes against the far left within the national student organisation. He quickly made political waves in his legal career, winning a landmark case on behalf of confectionery manufacturer Dollar Sweets in which a militant union that had been tormenting the company was ruined when the Victorian Supreme Court ordered it to pay a six-figure compensation sum. With help from long-term ally Michael Kroger, Costello entered parliament in 1990 after winning the prize Melbourne seat of Higgins at the expense of dead-wood member Roger Shipton and was immediately fast-tracked into the junior shadow ministry. He was Shadow Attorney-General by the time of the March 1993 election and became deputy leader and Shadow Treasurer as part of the "dream team" with Alexander Downer that ousted John Hewson and Michael Wooldridge in May 1994. Downer's leadership had imploded by the end of the year but Costello wisely declined to throw his hat into the ring, smoothing the way for the triumphant return of John Howard. Costello's eight years as Treasurer can only be reckoned an outstanding success in economic terms, while politically he has seen off one rival to the party succession in Peter Reith while maintaining an edge over the other contender, Tony Abbott. However the past few years have been tarnished by his growingly obvious irritation at Howard's refusal to let him have his turn. While anyone who closely views Costello's performances in parliament will have little trouble working out how the Government got where it is, those who don't are inclined to be irritated by his self-assuredness and it is by no means clear how his career will play out in the coming years. Padding out the ballot paper is Labor's Paul Klisaris, a left-wing Monash Councillor who was in the news in March 2003 after accompanying Monash's 23-year-old Mayor Geoff Lake when he made a scene at the business premises of a council rival, an incident that ended with the police asking Lake and Klisaris to leave. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Over-excited observers could be heard at one point suggesting that the "doctors' wives" effect could produce a freak upset in Higgins. Nowhere was the failure of that particular dog to bark more evident than here - Peter Costello added 2.2 per cent to his primary vote and 0.5 per cent to his two-party margin. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (8.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum HOLT (Labor 7.9%)
THE CANDIDATES: Anthony Byrne's way with numbers was revealed when he marshalled enough forces to defeat former state party president Jill Hennessey in the Holt preselection upon the resignation of Gareth Evans. Byrne's political roots are in the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees' Association (SDA), who were the leading malcontents against Crean's less-than-inspiring curb on union power through reducing union representation at the party's National Conference from 60 per cent to 50 per cent. A key player in the Victorian Labor Unity faction, the SDA was frozen out when the National Union of Workers abandoned the faction to cut a deal with the Socialist Left. Byrne reportedly backed Beazley in the June 2003 challenge after promising his vote to Crean, and was further damaged politically by the outcome in December when he again supported Beazley. As discussed in Crikey, it had been suggested his preselection might have been under threat had not the Victorian ALP pushed through endorsement of all sitting members to head off a brewing branch stacking war. The Liberals have endorsed Paul Teiwes, candidate for the even less winnable state seat of Richmond in 2002. The Poll Bludger has variously heard Teiwes described as a builder and the actor who plays Sam the barman on Blue Heelers. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A truly shocking result for Labor who dived 6.4 per cent on two-party preferred to move this once secure seat deep into the marginal zone. Antony Byrne's vote fell 4.3 per cent, despite a 5.7 per cent collapse in the Democrats vote, while the Liberal vote rose 6.7 per cent. Family First managed a handsome 4.2 per cent, almost matching the Greens. OUTCOME: Labor retain (1.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum HOTHAM (Labor 11.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: While his old man floundered as Treasurer in the Whitlam Government, Simon Crean was cutting his political teeth with a takeover of Young Labor with two other stars of the future, Robert Ray and Greg Sword. That smoothed a path to a career with the Storeman and Packers Union (now the National Union of Workers) of which he was federal secretary from 1979 to 1985. He then became president of the ACTU and spent five years building a national profile in that position before moving into Federal Parliament. Crean moved straight into the Science and Technology portfolio after the 1990 election and then on to Primary Industries and Energy and Employment, Education and Training. He spent the second term of the Howard Government as Shadow Treasurer and was thus the natural candidate after Kim Beazley's departure, despite question marks surrounding his suitability for the job. Crean's widely remarked inability to "cut through" was typified when he staked his future on a little-understood amendment to the party's "60/40" rule on union representation at the National Conference, which succeeded only in making enemies within the party and giving destabilising influences a foot in the door. More importantly he failed to generate any political capital out of the unpopularity of Australia's involvement in the Iraq war. He survived Kim Beazley's botched comeback attempt in June 2003 with the help of the Ferguson Left and most of the female members of caucus, but after the opinion polls kept getting sourer as 2003 progressed he was given the tap on the shoulder by those who had been propping up. Crean placed his endorsement and influence at the disposal of Mark Latham in the leadership ballot and was thought by most to have been over-rewarded with the position of Shadow Treasurer. Liberal candidate Jennifer Marriner is an accountant who works for Bayside Church. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Simon Crean, who can take as much of the credit as anyone for Labor's current state, can at least console himself with the knowledge that his effort here - down 3.2 per cent on the primary vote and 3.6 per cent on two-party preferred - was no worse than that of most of his colleagues in safe Melbourne seats. OUTCOME: Labor retain (7.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum INDI (Liberal 10.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: Melbourne barrister Sophie Panopoulos first came to national attention as a helpfully non-Anglo delegate for Australians for Constitutional Monarchy at the 1999 Constitutional Convention. Despite her apparently non-existent rural credentials she secured this very rural electorate at the expense of the National Party in 2001, and has since established herself as a feisty up-and-comer and a future candidate for the front bench. Her Labor opponent John Williams has no chance, but hasn't let that stop him garnering voluminous media coverage through such efforts as his very un-Labor-like assertion that Panopoulos was ill-equipped to represent her electorate as she is single and has no children. INTELLIGENCE: The Border Mail carried a pointless but well-meaning poll of 600 voters on October 5 that showed Sophie Panopoulos with predictably little to worry about, her primary support at 59 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain The seat is of purely academic interest, but this was a superb personal result for Sophie Panopoulos who, without competition from the Nationals this time, boosted the Coalition primary vote by 10.7 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (16.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum ISAACS (Labor 6.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: The beneficiary of a three-way factional split, school administrator Ann Corcoran was a surprise winner of the Labor pre-selection that followed the death of Greg Wilton in 2000. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Another seat where Labor had a healthy margin going in and very little left of it coming out. Ann Corcoran's vote was down 2.9 per cent, the Liberals were up 5.3 per cent and the 5.2 per cent two-party swing was almost enough to make it interesting. OUTCOME: Labor retain (1.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum JAGAJAGA (Labor 5.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Jenny Macklin came to politics via a masters degree in economics and jobs with David White, state Health Minister under the Kirner Government, and Brian Howe, then Deputy Prime Minister. Macklin had to tread on a few toes to secure her preselection, defeating the favoured candidate of her own Left faction, Philip Bain, by using his past as a Communist Party member to enlist support from forces of the Right including the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union and ACTU secretary Bill Kelty. She was rapidly promoted to the Health portfolio after the 1998 election and handled it to considerable effect, landing repeated hits on minister Michael Wooldridge over the MRI scan scam affair that brought him to the brink of enforced resignation. After the 2001 election Macklin became the first woman to reach the party's deputy leadership on an all-Victorian double bill with Simon Crean. Despite reports the job could change hands as a result of deal-making after Simon Crean stepped down, Macklin retained the deputy leadership under Mark Latham. Her Liberal opponent is 27-year-old "trade consultant" Woodrow Inman. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Labor deputy leader did quite well relatively speaking, losing less than 1 per cent on both primary and two-party preferred. Even so the seat is now technically marginal. OUTCOME: Labor retain (4.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum KOOYONG (Liberal 11.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: With a background as senior adviser to Malcolm Fraser and in sundry other high-level Liberal postings, the failure of Greek-born Petro Georgiou to make even the junior ministry at first seems anomalous. Then one considers his record as an Andrew Peacock staffer and state party director who had been involved in plans to draft John Elliott to depose John Howard in the late 1980s. Architect Tom Wilson is making his second successive run as Labor candidate. Wilson also came within 0.2 per cent of scoring what would previously have been an unthinkable Labor win in the Legislative Council province of East Yarra as part of the Bracks Government’s landslide re-election in 2002. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Those looking for a "doctors' wives" effect will have to make do with results like this, where Labor did at least manage a swing. However the inconsequentiality of the phenomenon is emphasised by the fact that Petro Georgiou still managed to improve his primary vote. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (10.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum LA TROBE (Liberal 3.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: A fascinating tussle looms in this seat with the Liberals losing the personal vote of a retiring incumbent and Labor gaining that of a former independent member for the roughly-in-the-neighbourhood state seat of Gippsland West. Susan Davies first contested that previously safe Liberal seat unsuccessfully at the 1996 state election, and her win in a by-election the following year was an early foretaste of the decisive swing against the Coalition outside Melbourne at the 1999 election. Davies' re-election in 1999 left her and two other independents holding the balance of power, and her political background along with Jeff Kennett's record of publicly contemptuous treatment of her left nobody surprised at the role she played in pulling the plug on his government. Davies' electorate was subsequently abolished and she performed disappointingly in the roughly corresponding new seat of Bass at the 2002 election, running third behind the major party candidates. Nevertheless she is an undeniably good catch for Labor in a well-placed seat. Jason Wood is a former police officer whose preselection was seen as a win for the Kennett-Carson faction in the Victorian Liberal Party. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: In the first week of the campaign, Mark Latham announced that the $420 million the Federal Government was withholding from the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway project due to the Victorian Government's plan for tolls would instead be allocated to other road projects around Victoria. Michael Harvey of the Herald Sun argued that with federal Labor's acceptance that the Bracks Government had made tolls inevitable, La Trobe "moved that much further out of the frame". The Government turned the knife the following week by offering an extra $120 million if the Victorian Government scrapped tolls, knowing full well that they wouldn't. INTELLIGENCE: On October 3, the Sunday Age carried an ACNielsen poll of about 500 respondents which had the Liberals ahead 51-49. The primary vote figures were Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 35 and Greens 13, suggesting a slightly excessive flow of minor party preferences to Labor in the two-party preferred calculation. Two days later newspapers in the Melbourne suburban Leader group ran a poll conducted by Oz Info of 300 voters which shows Liberal candidate Jason Wood leading Labor's Susan Davies 52-48 on two-party preferred. The pollsters could only get an answer from three-quarters of respondents, which can usually be taken as a sign of inexperience. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain A familiar story in a seat reckoned to be crucial for Labor in the pre-election period, with the Greens gaining only a little from the Democrats' slump from 8.0 per cent to 1.5 per cent, Labor gaining not at all, and a handy 4.7 per cent lift for Liberal newcomer Jason Wood. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (5.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum LALOR (Labor 12.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: Julia Gillard went from student politics at the University of Adelaide to a high-flying legal career with ambulance chasers Slater & Gordon in her early twenties, and thence to the chief-of-staff position for Victorian Opposition Leader John Brumby. In 1998 she became the first Labor woman ever to win endorsement for one of the party's truly unloseable Melbourne seats. After paying her dues for a term she was given a big vote of confidence after the 2001 election with the portfolio that was seen to have cost the party power, Immigration. Gillard chartered a course between public opinion and the party Left tactfully enough to earn promotion to the crucial Health portfolio when Stephen Smith stepped aside after supporting Kim Beazley in the June 2003 leadership challenge. Gillard is a figure in the Ferguson Left sub-faction which suffered a split over the Latham versus Beazley leadership contest, with Gillard backing Latham. The Liberal candidate is local pastor Peter Curtis who, along with four New South Wales National Party MPs, is recommended by Fred Nile's Christian Democratic Party "in the absence of a CDP candidate in that division". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A slightly underwhelming effort by Julia Gillard, but no worse than for most other Labor seats in Melbourne. With Gillard off the boil to the tune of 1.5 per cent and the Greens harvesting very little of the 6 per cent vote that went missing from the Democrats, the result was a 3.5 per cent swing to the Liberals on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum McEWEN (Liberal 2.2%)
THE CANDIDATES: In her first term from 1990 to 1993 Fran Bailey rose quickly to the shadow Consumer Affairs portfolio and related positions with names like "Parliamentary Secretary to the Leader of the Opposition on Fightback! Co-ordination and Marketing". This left her closely associated with Hewson's GST and her defeat at the 1993 election was widely seen in this light. Her status since her return to parliament in 1996 was at first more modest, but she was made parliamentary secretary to the Defence Minister after the 2001 election and received valuable pre-election publicity in July 2004 with a promotion to Employment Minister and Minister Assisting the Defence Minister. Labor hopeful Jenny Beales is a teacher and manager in the "outdoor recreation industry". Mitchell Shire Councillor Robert Gordon is running as an independent. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain After spending most of her career precariously placed, Fran Bailey finally broke out of marginal seat range with a 4.1 per cent swing and a 5.2 per cent improvement on the primary vote. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (6.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum McMILLAN (Liberal 2.9%)*
THE CANDIDATES: Christian Zahra was 25 years old at the time of his narrow win in 1998 and is still the youngest member of parliament. He did his career good by backing the right horses in both leadership votes, but lost his home town of Traralgon to Gippsland in a punishing redistribution and might have given thought to running there instead. Liberal candidate and glutton for punishment Russell Broadbent has twice been elected to the House of Representatives only to be tipped out after one term, serving as member for the abolished Corinella from 1990 to 1993 and for McMillan from 1996 to 1998. He has also been a Pakenham Shire President and Councillor. Despite scoring a feeble 2.7 per cent last time the Nationals have been inspired by the seat's more rural orientation to make plans of their own, having approached but been knocked back by former Sydney Swans AFL veteran Andrew Dunkley. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Half way through the campaign, the Liberal Party called for the resignation of Christian Zahra because he enrolled to vote in 1991 before becoming an Australian citizen, which is a criminal offence. It is not yet clear if the Liberals plan to make an official complaint, but from external appearances the matter appears to have blown over. Following the redistribution, Labor would have little chance of retaining the seat without Zahra’s personal vote. Earlier in the campaign the Federal Government "raised the prospect" of blocking the controversial Bald Hills wind farm development on the Gippsland coast, approved by the Bracks Government against the wishes of the local council. INTELLIGENCE: On October 3 the Sunday Age ran a poll showing Christian Zahra ahead 52-48 on two-party preferred, the primary vote results being Coalition 45 per cent, Labor 42 and Greens 7. ASSESSMENT: LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN The Poll Bludger put down his glasses on election night when it became apparent early during the Victorian counting that this seat was not going to follow his script. The outcome marked a 6.1 per cent improvement for the Coalition on the primary vote (the Nationals candidate managing 8.9 per cent against 42.9 per cent for the Russell Broadbent) and an extra 2 per cent padding on their two-party margin. OUTCOME: Liberal notional retain (4.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MALLEE (National 20.9%)
THE CANDIDATES: John Forrest's political accomplishments from his 11 years in parliament have been modest, his record limited to committee work and the position of chief National Party Whip. Nevertheless the Nationals would have reason to live in fear of the day he moves on since the Liberal Party will then be able to contest the seat, as they did successfully in the neighbouring seats of Farrer in 2001 and Murray in 1996. Forrest reportedly wanted to retire in 2001 but was persuaded not to when party polling showed they would lose the seat to the Liberals. By saving it for the Nationals he has given the party enough clout to ensure party colleague Julian McGauran retained second place on the Coalition Senate ticket at the current election. Since this will not be a factor next time, when the Nationals will only get unwinnable fourth place under the Coalition agreement, it appears certain this will be the last term both for Forrest and for the National Party in Mallee. Forrest's apparent lack of enthusiasm for his position might have been expected to have prompted an independent challenge, and well-connected agitators for the Wimmera-Mallee pipeline indeed threatened one. Hindmarsh Shire Mayor Darryl Argall spoke of financial backers for challenges here and in Wannon, but none have transpired. Labor candidate John Zigouras is a local solicitor who ran for the state seat of Mildura at the 2002 election, at one point accusing his party's hierarchy of failing to support his campaign as it wished to go soft on independent incumbent Russell Savage. ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain The National Party had the field to itself this time and needed no help from their partners to boost the Coalition primary vote by 8 per cent. Family First (4.5 per cent) outpolled the Greens (3.8 per cent). OUTCOME: Nationals retain (24.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MARIBYRNONG (Labor 15.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: Bob Sercombe made his way from public servant and council officer to consultant for Labor MP Clyde Holding to member for the state seat of Niddrie, now held by Victorian Attorney-General Rob Hulls, from 1988 to 1996. Sercombe held the position of deputy leader from March 1993 to May 1994, when he signed on to a botched attempt by Ian Baker to depose then-leader John Brumby, and he made the jump to federal politics two years later. Renowned as a a wily factional player, Sercombe has held on to a prized seat jealously eyed by some of the most ambitious figures in the party. Shortly after the 2001 election it was widely reported that Sercombe would stand aside at the next election in favour of Bill Shorten of the Australian Workers Union, but this appears not to have transpired. Shorten's ambitions may have had something to do with Sercombe's decision to jump ship from his Labor Unity faction (of which he had been convenor between 1989 and 1991) as it was outflanked by the Socialist Left/Network in 2002, and he has remained tenuously linked to the dominant new grouping since. In September 2003 Senator Stephen Conroy went so far as to accuse Sercombe of marshalling numbers for Labor Alliance figurehead Greg Sword to take over Hotham from Simon Crean, whose ties with Labor Unity made him a loser in the realignment. Sercombe, who had backed Crean in Kim Beazley's June 2003 leadership challenge and moved his support to Latham after his resignation, angrily denied the claim. Liberal candidate Conrad D'Souza was Labor's punching bag in the seat of Footscray at the 2002 state election. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain In another sobering anti-Labor swing on their home turf, the Liberals lifted their primary vote by 7.6 per cent and shaved no less than 6.9 per cent from Labor's two-party margin. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.5%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MELBOURNE (Labor 19.9%)
THE CANDIDATES: As befits a member for this notorious pinko electorate, which among other acts of sedition produced the nation's highest yes vote for the republic, Lindsay Tanner is a key member of the Left faction and was touted by Carmen Lawrence as the most deserving successor to the leadership after Simon Crean was tapped on the shoulder. After five years as state secretary of the Federated Clerks Union (which has since merged with others to form the Australian Services Union) Tanner landed this enviably safe seat (the Greens notwithstanding) in 1993 and was a natural for the shadow ministry after the 1996 election wipeout. Since then he has served as party spokesman on Transport, Finance and Consumer Affairs and, presently, Communications and the exquisitely Latham-esque new portfolio of Community Relationships. In the current term he has backed Kim Beazley in both leadership votes, criticised Mark Latham for proposing upper bracket tax cuts and used parliamentary privilege to raise ridiculous rape allegations against then Governor-General Peter Hollingworth. Tanner's main challenge comes from Greens candidate Gemma Pinnell, a 31-year-old official with the National Tertiary Education Union, who came within 2 per cent of winning the state seat of Richmond at the 2002 election, which would have been the party's first ever seat in Victorian parliament. Liberal candidate Jerry Dimitroulis has worked in telecommunications and banking but lists his current occupation as "author and poet, books published include The Dragon's Pit, Deadly Fire by Presidential Decree and The Great and Mighty Maphisto". INTELLIGENCE: An ACNielsen poll published in The Sunday Age on September 26 from a big sample of 1,006 had Labor on 49 per cent (47.6 per cent in 2001), the Greens on 27 (15.8 in 2001) and Liberal on 22 per cent (24.9 in 2001). This would mean that unlike 2001, the Liberals would be eliminated before the Greens, who would then receive the overwhelming majority of Liberal preferences. Had Liberal rather than Greens preferences been distributed in the final round in 2001, Lindsay Tanner would have prevailed by roughly 5 per cent. ACNielsen's two-candidate preferred result favouring Labor over the Greens by 63-37 can be dismissed, as the overwhelming majority of major party voters will follow a how-to-vote card that wasn't available to them during the survey. Tanner could hardly lose with 49 per cent of the primary vote, but he would have an uncomfortable margin and the Greens could feel justified in describing the seat as "marginal Labor/Green". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Those of us who had been keeping a lazy eye on the results from seats like Melbourne were most impressed by the celebratory tone of Bob Brown's pseudo-victory speech on an election night which should have been a big disappointment for him and his party. In the Greens' most promising seat in Victoria, candidate Gemma Pinnell (18.5 per cent) didn't come close to overtaking the Liberals' Jerry Dimitroulis (24.4 per cent) and Lindsay Tanner would in fact have won an easy victory in any case, with Tampa protesters from 2001 returning to Labor in sufficient numbers to boost his primary vote from 47.4 to 53.3 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (22.0%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MELBOURNE PORTS (Labor 5.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: Michael Danby gets most of his publicity for being Jewish and having frequent run-ins with the left of his own party and other beaters of the anti-Israel drum such as bug-eyed Sydney Morning Herald veteran Alan Ramsey. Before entering parliament he was an officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union which remains his power base, despite its reputation for Catholicism. Earlier yet he was a sparring partner at the Monash University Student Union for a young Peter Costello, who was still pretending he hadn't made up his mind about his future political direction. Former Labor MP Gary Johns described Danby as a "factional replacement" of the Right for his predecessor Clyde Holding, although the two have crossed swords recently after Danby attacked a state Labor candidate over anti-Israel statements. The Liberal candidate is the similarly kosher David Southwick, a business management lecturer at RMIT. Also hoping to run was Adrian Jackson, who was suspended by the Liberal Party in 2003 for his interesting decision to ban Americans and Israelis from his Middle Park bed-and-breakfast. Jackson later hooked up with Meg Lees' Australian Progressive Alliance but fell out with them as they would not allow him to run as the party's endorsed candidate. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberals expect that long-term demographic shift will eventually deliver this seat to them, although this result in fact emphasised its recent electoral stability by providing the Liberals with a comparably small 2.1 per cent two-party swing. Even so, the 3.7 per cent lead on the primary vote that the Liberals opened up would be sobering for Michael Danby, who for political reasons would not have been happy to have relied so heavily on preferences from the Greens (who polled 14 per cent of the vote) to make up the difference. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||