Federal Election 2004
TASMANIA AND THE TERRITORIES
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||||
| S/T | Region | Coalition electorates | Labor electorates | Region | S/T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT | Darwin | (0.1) SOLOMON | BASS (2.1) | North-West Tasmania | Tas |
| LINGIARI (5.3) | Outback | NT | |||
| BRADDON (6.0) | North-West Regional | Tas | |||
| FRANKLIN (8.1) | Southern Tasmania | Tas | |||
| LYONS (8.2) | Central | Tas | |||
| CANBERRA (9.5) | Southern Canberra | ACT | |||
| FRASER (12.7) | Northern Canberra | ACT | |||
| DENISON (14.3) | Hobart | Tas | |||
Key - Australian Labor Party Liberal Party * Region classifications are based on those used by Antony Green in his election summaries at ABC Elections. | |||||
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BASS (Labor 2.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: Michelle O'Byrne surprised her own party when she won Bass in 1998 at the age of 30, having worked for the Health Employees Federation, the Miscellaneous Workers Union and Senator Kerry O'Brien. O'Byrne backed Crean in the June challenge and Latham in December, and was rewarded with the position of parliamentary secretary to the Shadow Communications Minister. Despite Michael Ferguson's profile as director of the Tasmanian Family Institute and vigorous opponent of the Tasmanian Government's gay adoption laws, the Prime Minister was not impressed that the Tasmanian Liberal Party's ascendant Right faction was set to deliver him the numbers for preselection. He reacted by begging independent MLC Ivan Dean to nominate, but Dean would not be drawn and Ferguson won the vote. Possibly Howard holds the faction's political and ideological dominance to blame for the Tasmanian Liberal Party's failure to win a House of Representatives seat since 1996, as well as its near-annihilation at the 2002 state election. Ferguson works as an adviser to a key player in the faction, Senator Guy Burgess. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Early in the campaign the Greens were threatening not to direct preferences to Labor in Bass due to their insufficiently hard line on protection of old growth forests. Then came Labor's unexpectedly forest-friendly policy announcement on the last Monday of the campaign, which provoked outrage in regional areas of Tasmania. However the impact is likely to be softened in Bass relative to Braddon and Lyons since most jobs in the area's timber industry are from softwood mills and plantations rather than old growth forests. INTELLIGENCE: Three polls covering all five Tasmanian electorates with samples of 200 have been conducted by EMRS for the Launceston Examiner in the months leading up to the election. Michael Ferguson led 52-48 on two-party preferred on October 3 and 54-46 on September 12. Before the campaign, on June 29, Michelle O'Byrne was comfortably ahead with a 49 to 41 per cent lead on the primary vote. ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN Michael Ferguson added 7.7 per cent to the Liberal primary vote to come within 1 per cent of winning without going to preferences. Labor was down 3.6 per cent and the Greens rose weakly by 1.9 per cent despite no-shows from the Democrats (3.6 per cent in 2001) and One Nation (3 per cent in 2001). This amounted to a 4.7 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (2.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BRADDON (Labor 6.0%)
THE CANDIDATES: Davenport school teacher Sid Sidebottom's win was the biggest surprise of Labor's clean sweep of Tasmania in 1998, repeated in 2001, but he is little known outside his electorate. Liberal candidate Mark Baker is president of the Tasmanian Road Trauma Support Team and was an unsuccessful candidate for Bass at the 2002 Legislative Assembly election. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Despite being newly endangered by Labor's policy on phasing out old growth logging in Tasmania, announced on the last Monday of the campaign, Sid Sidebottom was more muted in his public protests than his colleague in Lyons, Dick Adams. INTELLIGENCE: Two polls covering all five Tasmanian electorates with samples of 200 for each have been conducted by EMRS for the Launceston Examiner during the election campaign. Sid Sidebottom led 52-48 on October 3 but trailed 46-54 on September 12. State Liberal Party director Paul Skillern claimed in the first week of the campaign to be "optimistic" about winning the seat. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain In a result that will serve as a cautionary tale in Australian politics for generations to come, the Liberals picked up 8.2 per cent on the primary vote and 7.1 per cent on two-party preferred to win a seat that existed at the outer limits of the Liberals' wildest dreams going into the election. Labor was down 5.4 per cent and the Greens vote remained static despite the failure of the Democrats (2.8 per cent in 2001) and One Nation (4.1 per cent in 2001) to field candidates. In the timber town booth of Smithton, the swing to the Liberals was over 14 per cent on both primary and two-party preferred. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (1.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum CANBERRA (Labor 9.5%)
THE CANDIDATES: Annette Ellis was a political adviser and public servant who entered politics after winning a seat in the ACT Legislative Assembly in 1992, before losing it in 1995. The following year she entered federal parliament as member for the short-lived third ACT seat of Namadji, but when it was abolished going into the 1998 election it was the member for Fraser, Steve Dargavel, who was cut out of the deal, his seat going to McMullan while Ellis took on Canberra. Ellis appears to have made a full recovery after treatment for breast cancer in early 2004. She faces Liberal candidate Belinda Barnier, who also ran in 2001. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The two ACT seats behaved in a fashion similar to inner city seats in the big cities, delivering the Greens a bigger boost than elsewhere (from 6.3 to 10.2 per cent) with Labor up as well (from 46.5 to 49.9 per cent). The Liberals were up too, from 34.0 to 37.0 per cent, limiting the two-party swing to Labor to 0.2 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (9.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum DENISON (Labor 14.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: Duncan Kerr was a Crown Counsel and Dean of Law at the University of Papua New Guinea before his impressive feat in winning Denison for Labor at the 1987 election. He rose to Justice Minister in 1993, very briefly serving as Attorney-General pending the narrow outcome in Michael Lavarch's seat of Dickson. He served in various portfolios in the shadow ministry after the defeat of the Keating Government but was dumped from the front bench after the 2001 election campaign, during which he berated his party for supporting the Howard Government's policies on asylum seekers. Kerr then began planning a move into state politics at the 2002 Tasmanian election and announced that he would quit his seat, but was made to abandon the idea after resistance from the state parliamentary party and fears from then-leader Simon Crean that a by-election could deliver the seat to the Greens. Kerr's evident dissatisfaction with his position may provoke an electoral backlash, but not on a scale likely to endanger him. The Liberals have nominated Erick Pastoor, a Hobart high school teacher who in 2001 lost his legs and fingers to meningococcal disease. The Greens' candidate is Helen Burnet, who ran for the inner Hobart Legislative Council seat of Apsley in May, polling 14.8 per cent. INTELLIGENCE: Two polls covering all five Tasmanian electorates with samples of 200 for each have been conducted by EMRS for the Launceston Examiner during the election campaign, both of which showed Duncan Kerr leading 64-36 on two-party preferred. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Greens candidate Helen Burnet lifted the Greens vote from 10.2 to 14.6 per cent, although this is less impressive in light of the failure of the Democrats (who polled 6.6 per cent in 2001) to field a candidate. That aside, the result was much the same as in 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.3%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum FRANKLIN (Labor 8.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: A Left faction member who voted for Crean in the first leadership vote and for Latham in the second, Harry Quick had a brief moment of national prominence when he threatened to wear a white armband and turn his back while President Bush addressed the parliament. He failed to come good on his threat, although he joined Tanya Plibersek, Carmen Lawrence and Duncan Kerr in refusing him a standing ovation. Despite that moment of solidarity, Kerr and Quick are bitter factional enemies. In 2003 Kerr made unsuccessful moves to have Quick deposed in favour of his staffer Nicole Wells, and Quick threatened to run as an independent if they came off. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Harry Quick did not seem too impressed when Tasmania's pro-logging Labor Premier Paul Lennon said that if either party promised to end old growth logging, Tasmanians should "demonstrate in the ballot box on October the 9th that they won't stand for this anymore". Quick described the comments as "irresponsible and stupid". INTELLIGENCE: Two polls covering all five Tasmanian electorates with samples of 200 for each have been conducted by EMRS for the Launceston Examiner during the election campaign. Harry Quick led 64-36 on October 3 and by 53-47 on September 12. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain That Tasmania is a state of two halves was demonstrated by Labor's solid performances here and in Denison, compared with the carnage inflicted elsewhere. Harry Quick edged upwards, perhaps less than he would have liked given that no-shows from One Nation and the Democrats freed up 6.9 per cent of the vote, but he can be pleased that the two-party swing against him was a barely noticeable 0.4 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (7.6%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum FRASER (Labor 12.7%)
THE CANDIDATES: Bob McMullan has moved around a bit since entering parliament in 1988, from the Senate to Canberra to Fraser. He was made parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer in 1990 and Arts and Administrative Services Minister after the 1993 election, swapping Arts for Trade in January 1994. After 1996 he held shadow ministry positions including Industrial Relations, Finance and Aboriginal Affairs before being elevated to Shadow Treasurer after the 2001 election. With the Government's economic record offering the smallest of targets, McMullan inevitably struggled to land a blow and his position was offered as a reward from Crean to Mark Latham for his loyalty in the first Beazley challenge. McMullan joined Martin Ferguson, John Faulkner and Jenny Macklin in persuading Crean to stand aside on November 28. All but Faulkner voted for Beazley but only McMullan was punished for it, the Shadow Treasurer position becoming a consolation prize for the obviously less suitable Crean. Crikey posits that McMullan was the one to suffer since Crean "could not attack or get back at his 'mate' Martin Ferguson or his 'mate' John Faulkner or his former deputy Jenny Macklin" and thus settled for McMullan, who had "no big factional stick to whack him back with". Liberal candidate Adam Giles is described by the Canberra Times a "former public servant now studying for his Masters of Business Administration". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Very much the same story as the other ACT seat, Canberra - the Democrats crashed, One Nation didn't field a candidate and Labor, Liberal and the Greens all gained ground accordingly, resulting in a minor two-party swing to Labor. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.3%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum LINGIARI (Labor 5.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: Warren Snowdon has been around a while, his first stint in parliament beginning as member for Northern Territory from 1987. He served in various parliamentary secretary positions from the 1990 election until he lost his seat with the Keating Government's defeat in 1996. He won it back in 1998 and was made parliamentary secretary to the Urban and Regional Development Minister after the 2001 election, at which he became inaugural member for the new seat of Lingiari. He was spoken of as a possible front-bench replacement for Carmen Lawrence when she quit in December 2002, but was overlooked in favour of Alan Griffin from Victoria. Snowdon backed Crean and then Latham in the 2003 leadership challenges. The Country Liberal Party has made an interesting choice in endorsing Maisie Austin, who quit the party in 2001 in protest against David Tollner's preselection in Solomon and ran against him as an independent, polling a modest 5 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A good result for Warren Snowdon in one of the few seats where Labor went up (2.8 per cent) and Liberal down (0.8 per cent) on the primary vote. He also boosted his two-party margin by 2.4 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (7.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: Wisdom of Solomon (and Lingiari) (6/4/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum LYONS (Labor 8.2%)
THE CANDIDATES: Dick Adams spent three years as a member of the Tasmanian state parliament from 1979, which included a spell as National Parks Minister, but he lost his seat in 1982. He stood unsuccessfully as candidate for Lyons in 1987 but came up trumps two elections later with Labor's clean sweep of Tasmania in 1993. His union background is with the AMIEU and LHMWU. Liberal candidate Ben Quin is an unusual mix of former army officer and former Greens member. Speaking with The Examiner after his preselection, he explained the latter aberration as a principled reaction to the joint Labor and Liberal effort in 1998 to fix the Tasmanian state electoral system at the Greens' expense. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: His electorate home to a large proportion of Tasmania's timber industry workers, Dick Adams was not pleased with his party's announcement on the last Monday of the campaign that it proposed moving towards an end to old growth logging, going so far as to say he "never expected to hear such a sell-out of a state on behalf of a few city dwellers keen to see Tasmania locked up and abandoned". Labor built its strength here on the back of big swings in the GST elections of 1998 (9.3 per cent) and 1993 (5.6 per cent), which largely stuck the next time round. This suggests that Labor has had a lot of soft support in these seats from voters with sensitive hip-pocket nerves. INTELLIGENCE: An EMRS poll with a sample of 200 published by the Launceston Examiner on October 3, before the announcement of Labor's forestry policy, showed Ben Quin with an unlikely 52-48 lead over Dick Adams on two-party preferred. A similar poll from September 12 had Adams leading 59-41. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Labor's defeated member for Braddon, Sid Sidebottom, would be rueing his failure to take as hard a line against his party's forestry policy as Dick Adams, who limited the swing against him to a manageable 2.7 per cent on primary and 4.5 per cent on two-party preferred. As usual for Tasmania, a substantial part of the 2001 vote was freed up by the failure of One Nation (5.4 per cent in 2001) and the Democrats (4.5 per cent) to field candidates, and the Liberals seem to have taken their fair share - 6.5 per cent in this case. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum SOLOMON (Country Liberal 0.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: David Tollner is lucky to be in parliament for a number of reasons, one being the 88 vote margin by which he defeated Labor's Laurene Hull in 2001. The other is that elements within the Country Liberal Party were reportedly gunning for his disendorsement prior to the 2001 election and only failed to secure it because party rules would not allow it so close to an election. His transgressions included an earlier conviction for cannabis possession, as well as his candidacy as an anti-gun control independent in the 1997 Northern Territory election at which he came within 41 votes of defeating the CLP's Chris Lugg. Two significant figures in the party cited Tollner's preselection as a factor contributing to their decision to quit - Nick Dondas, who held the Northern Territory electorate for a term after the 1996 election, and Maisie Austin, who went so far as to run against Tollner as an independent but could only manage 5 per cent of the vote. Not only is Austin now back in the party fold, she has been preselected as candidate for the Territory's other electorate of Lingiari. A further entry into Tollner's rap sheet came in December 2001 when his licence was suspended for six months following charges of drink driving and driving an unregistered vehicle. In May 2004 Tollner was compelled to apologise to parliament for drunken misbehaviour on a Qantas flight which included "annoying" Liberal colleague Christopher Pyne by "ruffling his hair". The following month he made the logically sensible but politically insane observation that the Northern Territory would be obliged to accept a nuclear waste dump if it was deemed the safest site. In August, he used parliamentary privilege to say that Warren Snowdon, Labor's member for Lingiari, had "stood over" and "intimidated" people to interfere with a police investigation into Bob Collins, the former Labor Senator at the centre of sexual abuse allegations who at that time was recovering in hospital from a near-fatal car crash. Labor candidate Jim Davidson is a former civil engineer and current adviser to Northern Territory Business Minister Paul Henderson. The Poll Bludger encourages Darwinians and Palmerstonians to consider casting their vote for independent candidate Maurice Foley, who told the NT News in August that he does not "blame" or "despise" John Howard, but rather "I blame the electorate - I despise the electorate. I am putting my hand up and saying 'I want to represent you' - but I am also putting my hand up and saying 'you are a bunch of w..kers'". CAMPAIGN UPDATE: David Tollner was in the news yet again when it emerged during the fourth week of the campaign that a neighbour had been attacked by his bull mastiff, curiously named Brussels Sprout, which reportedly resulted in the 27-year-old mother of three being hospitalised for two weeks. The Age reported on September 23 that Tollner's lawyers wrote to the paper warning that they would be sued for damages if any "false allegations" concerning the incident led to the loss of his seat. INTELLIGENCE: Upon the announcement of the election, David Tollner told the Northern Territory News he was "not confident". A report quoting Labor internal polling on ABC Radio's AM program on September 17 said Labor were "looking strong". ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN Another Poll Bludger wrong call. Darwin voters proved remarkably tolerant of Tollner's various transgressions, "punishing" him with an extra 6.9 per cent to his primary vote and a badly needed 2.7 per cent on two-party preferred. Labor's primary vote was little changed. A stark contrast to the other Northern Territory seat, Lingiari, where Labor didn't need to make up ground but did anyway. Given that Labor won by a greater margin in Lingiari than Liberal won by in Solomon, it may be inferred that the Liberals got the better part of the deal when the two parties agreed to maintain the Northern Territory's two seats. OUTCOME: Country Liberal retain (2.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: Wisdom of Solomon (and Lingiari) (6/4/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||