Federal Election 2004
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||
| Region | Non-Labor electorates | Labor electorates | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inner Adelaide | (0.6) ADELAIDE | KINGSTON (1.3) | Southern Adelaide |
| Western Adelaide | (1.1) HINDMARSH | WAKEFIELD (1.5) | Yorke/Murray River |
| North-East Adelaide | (3.8) MAKIN | ||
| Southern Adelaide | (7.4) BOOTHBY | ||
| Inner Adelaide | (8.6) STURT | ||
| Outback | (10.6) GREY | ||
| Outer Adelaide | (14.3) MAYO | PORT ADELAIDE (15.4) | North-West Adelaide |
| Rural South-East | (17.0) BARKER | ||
Key - Australian Labor Party Liberal Party * Region classifications are based on those used by Antony Green in his election summaries at ABC Elections. | |||
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ADELAIDE (Liberal 0.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: Trish Worth entered parliament in 1993 from a position as patient services manager for Gribbles Pathology. Worth's political future appeared in doubt when she was diagnosed with breast cancer last year, but she apparently remains in good health and is again taking the field. Labor's Kate Ellis, an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen, won the nomination as the Labor candidate in a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for the soft Left's Steve Georganas and Makin for the hard Left's Dana Wortley (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia). CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Trish Worth, who at times had presented herself as sympathetic to asylum seekers, made headlines on the third day of the campaign when audio emerged of her telling a Justice for Refugees debate that detention could not be ended "like that" because when "you bring a dog into this country, or a cat from some countries ... there are certain tests to be carried out". This would probably not have hurt her if her seat was in the suburbs or the regions, but in central Adelaide, her traditionally more sympathetic image would have been the better bet electorally. INTELLIGENCE: On September 11, The Advertiser published a poll of 419 voters showing Trish Worth leading Kate Ellis 47 to 39 per cent on the primary vote and 51 to 49 per cent on two-party preferred. An earlier Advertiser poll published on June 9 had them tied at 43 per cent on the primary vote with Labor ahead 53-47 on two-party. Dennis Shanahan reported in The Australian on September 17 that Adelaide was the least likely of the three Liberal marginals in Adelaide to fall to Labor. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain One of Labor's four wins at the expense of the Coalition, the others being Parramatta, Richmond and Hindmarsh. In this case the outcome can be put down to a combination of a slender existing margin and a general swing to Labor in inner-city seats. Even in this context Kate Ellis did well to add 5.5 per cent to the Labor primary vote, assisted by the pronounced impact of the Democrats' collapse, their 10.9 per cent vote from 2001 all but disappearing. That left Trish Worth needing more than the extra 0.8 per cent she managed on the primary vote to defend her fragile two-party margin. OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (1.3%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: A Tale of Two Seats (24/7/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BARKER (Liberal 17.0%)
THE CANDIDATES: Patrick Secker came to the seat in 1998 upon the retirement of Ian McLachlan, winning preselection as the favoured candidate of Senator Nick Minchin's Right faction over former state president Vicki Chapman, aligned with the moderate faction associated with Christopher Pyne. The latest redistribution may not have made Barker any more interesting from a Labor perspective, but it looked set to open a can of worms within the conservative camp. The Riverland had been the heartland of Wakefield MP and House of Representatives Speaker Neil Andrew, who felt that Barker rather than the now unrecognisable semi-urban seat of Wakefield was his natural territory. Andrew averted a brawl by instead deciding to retire, but Secker's widespread reputation as a non-achiever had others in the party thinking they could do better. Crikey nominated three party figures (Ashley Jared, Draz Baric and Nick McBride) as having their eyes on the seat, but the Prime Minister's insistence that sitting members not be challenged was apparently enough to dissuade them. However it was widely reported that the state's only National Party MP, Karlene Maywald, was planning to take a challenge to Secker directly to the voters after having toyed with nominating for Liberal preselection. Maywald's popularity locally was indicated by her success in winning a seat for the National Party in South Australia, where its base is almost non-existent (their candidate for Barker in 1998 polled 2.2 per cent). As talk of her candidacy gained momentum, Secker made the courageous decision to stand by a recommendation of a parliamentary committee on which he sat that would have deprived South Australia of 500 gigalitres of Murray River flows. This provoked a sharp response from South Australian Liberals up to and including Alexander Downer - and, less surprisingly, from Karlene Maywald. In June 2004 Secker belatedly changed his mind. All the elements for a fascinating contest were in place, but with the effectively independent Maywald having proved a fairly agreeable cross-bencher in the view of Mike Rann's minority government, Labor did not want the Liberals recovering her seat of Chaffey at the by-election that would follow a move to federal parliament. Showing the craftiness that has characterised his government, Mike Rann offered Maywald a cabinet position as Minister for the River Murray, Regional Development, Small Business and Consumer Affairs (the creation of the first of these portfolios being an added twist of genius), which she duly accepted. The Nationals have instead nominated Tim Jackson, editor of the Murray Pioneer newspaper. Labor candidate Waluwe Simpson-Lyttle ran against Karlene Maywald in Chaffey at the 2002 state election. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Strong showings from the Nationals (10.6 per cent compared with 2.2 per cent from their last effort in 1998, although the boundaries were different then) and Family First (5.8 per cent), and for the Coalition collectively - Patrick Secker was only down 3 per cent despite the competition from the Nationals. Labor was down 2 per cent on the primary vote and 3.2 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (19.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: A Tale of Two Seats (24/7/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum BOOTHBY (Liberal 7.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: When former SA Premier and Liberal Movement trouble-maker Steele Hall retired as member in 1996, his faction hoped to use the opportunity to parachute their leading light from the Senate, Robert Hill, into the lower house. However the Right came off the victors in the factional brawl that followed and while Hill has been a mainstay at the senior level of the Howard Government, Andrew Southcott has little to show for his eight years in parliament. Labor's candidate is Chloe Fox, a teacher, former journalist and daughter of Mem Fox, a children's author and educator whose admirers include Mark Latham (but not Janet Albrechtsen). INTELLIGENCE: The Advertiser carried a poll on September 14 showing the Liberals ahead 56 to 44 per cent, a 1 per cent swing to Labor from 2001. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain It's only when you look at their former heartland in South Australia that you appreciate the full scale of the Democrats' disaster - here they plummeted 16.9 per cent to record a pitiful 2.0 per cent, far to the rear of the Greens and Family First. This helped Labor's vote increase 9.9 per cent while the Liberals were up 2.5 per cent, translating into a 2.0 per cent two-party preferred swing to Labor. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (5.4%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results RELATED POSTS: If Boothby Told (8/8/04). Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum GREY (Liberal 10.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: The breath-takingly vast area covered by Grey is an ancient land of many timeless mysteries, not the least of which is what Liberal member Barry Wakelin does all day. He finally made the news in May 2004 when it emerged he had hired an electorate officer with a fraud conviction known to her previous employer, Trish Draper, the troubled Liberal member for Makin. Labor's candidate is John Hackett, a 27-year-old social work student who works part-time for Mission Australia and was once an organiser with the Australian Services Union. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Family First scored about as much of the vote as One Nation lost (5.0 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively), but apart from that the result was similar to 2001. The Liberals were up 2 per cent and Labor down 0.9 per cent, resulting in a two-party swing to Liberal of 3.2 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (13.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum HINDMARSH (Liberal 1.1%)
THE CANDIDATES: Chris Gallus's success in winning first the now-abolished Hawker and then Hindmarsh - each for the first time in the Liberal Party's history - earned her a reputation as something of a vote-winner, so it can be believed that the Prime Minister "hit the roof" when Gallus made her unexpected decision to retire, as reported by Samantha Maiden of The Australian. Party polling reportedly shows Gallus to be worth an extra 6 to 7 per cent to the Liberal vote, although "political observers" cited by Craig Bildstien of The Advertiser were more conservative, putting it at 3 or 4 per cent. Both sets of figures are easily the difference between victory and defeat. The preselection was a contest between Gallus-backed Simon Birmingham and the Right faction's Stavroula Raptis, with Crikey reporting that Birmingham won on the second ballot with "50 per cent plus three votes". For the third election running, Labor's candidate is Steve Georganas, a former taxi driver who got the gig as the "soft Left" faction's nominee in a deal that saw the Right's Kate Ellis take Adelaide. Georganas did extremely well to almost unseat Gallus with a 6.9 per cent swing in 1998, but in 2001 he performed no better or worse than the state average in dropping 1 per cent. He has been keeping off the streets lately thanks to a job as adviser to South Australian Urban Development Minister Jay Weatherill. INTELLIGENCE: With more than 20 per cent of its voters aged over 65, Hindmarsh is Australia's "greyest" electorate and a key target for efforts by the major parties to win the support of elderly voters. A poll conducted from a sample of 572 by The Advertiser a few hours (too few, perhaps) after Labor's campaign launch on the second last Wednesday of the campaign showed the Liberals with a very handy lead. Primary vote figures were Liberal 46 per cent, Labor 36, Greens 5 and Democrats 2, with Liberal leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN One of the election's two closest calls along with Swan, which also narrowly landed Labor's way. The 1.0 per cent swing to Labor was about 2 per cent better for them than the South Australian average, which is perhaps a measure of the personal vote for Chris Gallus. As usual, all comers went up except the Democrats (down 7.5 per cent 1.6 per cent) and One Nation (down 2.8 per cent to 0.6 per cent). OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (0.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum KINGSTON (Labor 1.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: As a grape grower, David Cox will be pleased to have McLaren Vale back on his turf. His other job was as political adviser to a range of Labor figures including Mick Young, Ralph Willis, John Kerin and Peter Walsh, although he is considered a protégé of his predecessor Gordon Bilney. Cox became Assistant Shadow Treasurer in August 2002 and after lining up against Beazley in both challenges was given the extra role of Revenue Minister, placing him in the front line of Labor economic policy formulation. Christian Kerr of Crikey reckons him "arguably the most boring man in parliament". Recently retired Adelaide Crows defender Nigel Smart had been spoken of as a potential candidate, but apparently decided the seat wasn't good enough for him. The nomination has instead gone to another footballer, Kym Richardson, who played for West Torrens in the SANFL in the early 1990s and now has a dual career as policeman and sporting manager, with clients including Port Adelaide player Byron Pickett. INTELLIGENCE: On October 2, The Advertiser ran a poll of 686 voters which, in contrast to their polling in nearby Liberal seats, had Labor well ahead by 56-44 on two-party preferred. Primary vote after distribution of the 14 per cent undecided: Labor 45.5 per cent, Liberal 37, Greens 7, Family First 4.5, Democrats 3.5. An Advertiser poll from June 19 had Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Thoughts that David Cox may have failed to make headway in the new areas of his electorate are not borne out by a cursory glance at polling booth results - he picked up big swings in the McLaren Vale and Willunga, formerly in Mayo, but suffered terminal damage in the heart of his electorate around Noarlunga Downs and Onkaparinga Hills. The result was a 1.4 per cent two-party swing that saw Cox off by the narrowest of margins. The components of the result were a dramatic slump for the Democrats from 11.5 per cent to 2.2, yielding a weak dividend for the Greens (up 2 per cent to 5.3) who were outdone by Family First (5.6 per cent). Both Labor and Liberal were up in the order of 3.5 per cent, a more conservative minor party preference pool ultimately accounting for the result. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (0.1%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MAKIN (Liberal 3.8%)
THE CANDIDATES: After the 1998 election Trish Draper was named by the Prime Minister as one of three Liberal "heroes" (along with Jackie Kelly in Lindsay and Danna Vale in Hughes) whose sustained success in enemy territory had helped the government cling to power. Draper was left looking somewhat less heroic after it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe in 2000 at taxpayers' expense despite the rules saying this benefit extended only to spouses. In May 2004 the Seven Network's Today Tonight aired a devastating interview with a former Draper staffer who detailed her very casual relationship with her companion, who she had been attempting to portray as her then-partner. Draper, who had made much out of her commitment to family values and traditional moral standards, looked feeble indeed as she indignantly denied the accusations without being able to refute any of the particulars. To add to the challenge confronting Draper, her Labor opponent is Tony Zappia, a strong candidate in more ways than one. Zappia is the only Australian weightlifter ever to win 10 national titles, and has managed to hold aloft the mayoralty of Salisbury for seven hamstring-straining years, with a further 20 years on council before that. He was widely seen to have been hard done by in losing the 2001 nomination to Gail Gago, former nursing union leader and current MLC, essentially due to his factional non-alignment. A repeat performance appeared to be on the cards when the deal over Adelaide and Hindmarsh referred to earlier reserved Makin for Dana Wortley, Media Entertainment and Arts Alliance state secretary and nominee for a faction described by Paul Starick of The Advertiser as a "coalition of the Hard Left and remnants of the Centre". The deal was of use to the major Left faction centred around Nick Bolkus as the preselection of a female candidate would have allowed the party to achieve its affirmative action quota without costing Bolkus his spot in the Senate (he has since decided to retire). Local party members however were not pleased, which led state member Frances Bedford to throw her hat into the ring in what Rebecca DiGirolamo of The Australian described a "tactical move to get Mr Zappia up", despite Bedford being a factional colleague of Wortley's. In the event Premier Mike Rann managed to persuade Wortley's key union backers to shift their support to Zappia, in what would appear to have been an electorally sensible decision. INTELLIGENCE: On September 24 the Advertiser carried a poll from a big sample of 1,114 that had Trish Draper ahead 52-48 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote lead after distribution of the undecided of 46.5 to 41 per cent. Makin is a strong area for Family First and a weak one for the Democrats and Greens, so the Coalition will not need as big a primary vote lead as usual in order to win. The results marked a reversal of polls showing Labor ahead by 41 to 39 per cent in April and 44 to 33 per cent in June, just after Draper hit her spot of difficulty. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Trish Draper did not go entirely unpunished - against the state and national trend, she fell on both the primary vote (by 1.0 per cent to 44.7 per cent) and two-party preferred (a swing of 2.7 per cent), making this a rare seat where Labor pared back the margin enough to be within striking distance for next time. With 8.7 per cent of the Democrats vote going missing, Labor (up 6.3 per cent) and Family First (4.9 per cent on debut) both performed strongly. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (0.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum MAYO (Liberal 14.3%)
THE CANDIDATES: Alexander Downer's father Sir Alec Downer was a Liberal MP from 1949 to 1964 who served as Immigration Minister in the Menzies Government and later as High Commissioner in London, and his grandfather Sir John Downer was a South Australian Premier and Senator in the first Federal Parliament in 1901. After cultivating his vowels at the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Downer spent a decade in the diplomatic service before taking a job as adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser in 1982. He became member for Mayo at the 1984 election and made the front-bench in April 1987, with promotions to the Trade portfolio after the 1990 election defeat and then Defence in 1992. Downer replaced Peter Reith as Shadow Treasurer following the 1993 election defeat, giving him a platform to establish his leadership credentials while John Hewson entered the terminal decline that ended with his resignation in May 1994. With the party reluctant to return to John Howard, the best it could think to do was install a youthful "dream team" with Downer as leader and Peter Costello as deputy. The folly of this became apparent in record time, with Downer blundering repeatedly over Aboriginal land rights before sealing his own doom by attempting to amuse party supporters at the launch of a mid-term motherhood statement with a crass joke about domestic violence. This was followed by a record-breaking crash in his approval rating and the emergence of a movement to draft John Howard. After his last pillars of support collapsed Downer went quietly, receiving the consolation prize of Foreign Affairs just as Bill Hayden had when he agreed to step aside for Bob Hawke in February 1983. Downer's performance in the role since the election of the Howard Government in March 1996 has been on the whole more creditable than might have been predicted, against a backdrop of international events that hardly need reiterating here. He can claim at least some credit for the Government's numerous successes in the field of trade, although he has hit a badly timed rough patch in the current pre-election period. In August he angered the Philippines Government with comments that went further than the United States had in criticising their withdrawal from Iraq, and then apparently causing friction with the US as well by asserting that Australia would not automatically support it in the event of war with China over Taiwan. He was also criticised for asserting that North Korea could hit Sydney with a nuclear missile. Only the most optimistic Democrats partisan would be expecting their candidate to emulate John Schumann's near-success from 1998, but Brian Deegan could arguably be another matter. Deegan is an Adelaide magistrate whose son was a Bali bombing victim and he since pursued a high-profile campaign to pin responsibility on the Federal Government due to its intelligence failures and support for the Bush Administration's military endeavours. However, redistribution has made the seat more rural and conservative than it was in 1998 and Downer is unlikely to be troubled again. A poll published in the Sunday Mail in early May had Deegan on 18 per cent against 48 per cent for Downer. Labor initially nominated Tom Kenyon, adviser to South Australian Industry Minister Paul Holloway, but he withdrew in August saying he had agreed to run anticipating an earlier election. His replacement, James Murphy, is a Flinders University law and commerce student who sits on the Student Association council. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Brian Deegan appeared to abandon any notion of extending his electoral appeal beyond the ideological fringe with his reaction to the Jakarta bombing, suggesting that the Australian Government "negotiate" with Jemaah Islamiah. INTELLIGENCE: The Advertiser conducted a poll on September 15 that indeed showed support for Deegan had dived. His 13.5 per cent (after distribution of the undecided) was 7 per cent down on what he recorded when he announced his candidacy in May. Downer was safe and sound on 53 per cent. The poll would have come as a shock to the Australian Democrats, who recorded a miserable 1 per cent. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Brian Deegan had less reason to feel pleased with his performance than his counterpart Andrew Wilkie in Bennelong, managing 15.2 per cent of the vote and failing to force Alexander Downer to preferences. Downer's vote was steady on 53.6 per cent, with the disappearing Democrats (down 11.9 per cent to 1.8 per cent) and the declining Labor (down 3.3 per cent) making room for the Deegan vote. Deegan can at least console himself with the fact that he cleared one of the hurdles necessary for him to be competitive by pushing Labor into third place, but their preferences were never going to make the difference. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (11.3% vs IND) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum PORT ADELAIDE (Labor 15.4%)
THE CANDIDATES: In parliament since 1988, Rod Sawford is either an under-achiever or a very quiet one, his highest office being Government and then Opposition Whip between 1994 and 2001. Crikey describes him as "the last surviving parliamentarian from the once-dominant South Australian Centre Left". His fragile power base combined with a consistently low profile have led to frequent rumours of preselection challenges, with talk emerging mid-term that figures in the Left had their eye on the seat. However the party hierarchy saw that the peace was kept with all South Australian incumbents nominated unopposed. Sawford was a very faithful Crean ally and shifted his allegiance to Latham at the December 2003 leadership vote. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The collapse of the Democrats (down 8.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent) allowed Labor, Liberal and the Greens to pick up on the primary vote with 4.8 per cent to spare for Family First on debut. With Liberal gaining more than Labor (5.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent) and Family First a major factor in the preference distribution, the result was a substantial but meaningless 3.1 per cent two-party swing to the Liberals in what now more than ever is Labor's only secure South Australian seat. OUTCOME: Labor retain (12.9%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum STURT (Liberal 8.6%)
THE CANDIDATES: Christopher Pyne became Young Liberals state president in 1988 at the age of 21 and set to work building the power base through which he defeated sitting member Ian Wilson at preselection to secure Adelaide's safest Liberal seat in 1993. Pyne is a moderate, a protégé of Amanda Vanstone and a Costello supporter, which may have something to do with his slow progress through the ranks. He finally made it as far as parliamentary secretary to Family and Community Services Minister Kay Patterson in the October 2003 reshuffle, although as chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters he had the opportunity to land hits on Labor over the Queensland electoral rorts affair. Labor's candidate is Italian-born Tony Barca, a Port Adelaide Enfield councilor. ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain A possible "doctors' wives" effect here with the Liberals doing less well than elsewhere, edging up 1 per cent on the primary vote while Labor gained 5.2 per cent, the Greens 2.3 per cent and Family First 4.8 per cent. Making room as usual for all and sundry were the Democrats, down 9 per cent to 2.3, and One Nation, down 2.4 per cent to 0.7. Labor picked up a two-party swing of 1.7 per cent. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (6.8%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum WAKEFIELD (Labor 1.5%)
THE CANDIDATES: Martyn Evans spent four years as Mayor of Elizabeth and 10 as member for the state seat of the same name, serving as Health Minister from 1992 to 1993. He moved into the corresponding federal electorate of Bonython at a by-election brought on by the resignation of Hawke-Keating Government minister Neal Blewett in 1994. He made the shadow ministry after the 1996 election with the Science and Information Technology portfolio, but dropped out after the 2001 election. With Bonython now abolished in name, Evans finds himself in a relatively marginal electorate made up of 40 per cent unfamiliar regional territory. Liberal candidate David Fawcett is an RAAF commander. INTELLIGENCE: On September 17, The Advertiser published a poll of 631 Wakefield voters showing Martyn Evans leading 53 to 47 per cent. Newspoll results showing Labor performing strongly in South Australia also helped dampen talk that Labor might be in trouble, inspired partly by another Advertiser poll from late June that had the Liberals leading 51-49. ASSESSMENT: Labor notional retain The outcome in South Australia - where four seats changed hands, two each way - should perhaps be seen of indication of how much things can be shaken up by a sweeping redistribution, such as that which reduced South Australia's representation from 12 seats to 11, and the relative meaningless of the "notional" margins that are calculated to assess the state of play based on results from the previous election. In this case there were as usual plenty of votes made available by the demise of the Democrats (down 7.9 per cent to 1.7) and One Nation (down 4.3 per cent to 2.6), which allowed the Liberals to gain 4.7 per cent, Labor to gain 3.4 per cent and Family First to score 5.4 per cent on debut. The translated into a two-party swing to the Liberals of 1.9 per cent, a result that in the context of this election was only remarkable in that it decided the outcome. OUTCOME: LIBERAL NOTIONAL GAIN (0.7%) Click here for Australian Electoral Commission results Return to federal pendulum Return to state pendulum | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||