The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.

Other news:

• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.

• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.

It seems increasingly likely that we will soon be enjoying a “super Saturday” of federal by-elections, with a raft of former ministers preparing to take the money and run. While some have suggested the exodus might begin as soon as this week, other reports indicate that the relevant suspects are being “urged to stay on until after the budget to minimise any backlash in their seats”. Brendan Nelson had this to say on ABC radio yesterday:

I have spoken to both Peter Costello and Alexander Downer, I want them to make decisions that are in the interests of their electorates and of their families, and then of themselves and our party, and I expect they will make those decisions very soon … if hypothetically speaking we do have a number of members who choose to retire some time over the course of this year, then it would be preferable that they did so on one day, but … that’s a self-evident truth.

Seats of interest are as follows:

Mayo (Liberal 7.1%): Alexander Downer is making little effort to appear interested in an ongoing career in parliament: last Thursday he skipped question time to do lunch with Greg Sheridan of The Australian, and this week he took up a non-paying fortnight-long radio gig on Adelaide’s FiveAA. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports jockeying for Liberal preselection is on in earnest:

One-term federal members David Fawcett, from Wakefield in Adelaide’s northern suburbs, and Kym Richardson, from Kingston in the south, are strong contenders, as is Mr Downer’s former chief of staff Chris Kenny. Bob Day, a successful businessman and unlucky Liberal candidate for the northern suburbs seat of Makin, is also believed to be considering a tilt. State MP Iain Evans – state party leader until ousted by ex-SAS officer Martin Hamilton-Smith last year – has a strong family connection to the electorate and local branch recruitment, and may be looking to get out of state politics after his recent demotion in a reshuffle.

Mark Kenny turns up a different name in today’s Advertiser:

South Australian business leader Jason Kuchel is being considered as a possible “star” replacement for former foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer should the latter retire … Mr Kuchel, 38, described by a senior Liberal as “an impressive young conservative”, is the chief executive officer of the SA Chamber of Mines and Energy but has never been a member of the Liberal Party. He is a serving member of the Mt Barker district council. Liberal sources confirmed his name is now under serious consideration as party strategists contemplate a likely by-election in Mr Downer’s safe seat of Mayo. While Mr Kuchel is not well known in the Liberal Party, senior figures told The Advertiser that his position at the head of a powerful industry body suggested he was the kind of high-profile local candidate needed to retain the seat.

Higgins (Liberal 7.0%): Peter Costello’s long-standing friend and ally Michael Kroger has given the next best thing to official confirmation of Costello’s intention to quit, saying a fortnight ago he had “indicated that he is leaving the Parliament”. However, Gerard McManus of the Herald-Sun reports of an apparent rift between the two over who should succeed him, potentially producing a “Melbourne Cup field when he steps down as early as April”:

The ex-treasurer is believed to be backing state director Julian Sheezel, but the Kroger camp is resisting … Mr Sheezel, 38, has been Liberal state director for almost five years, and was originally considered a shoo-in for preselection, but senior Libs say he has ruffled feathers. Other possible contenders are Jason Aldworth, who once worked at Mr Kroger’s boutique bank and is now a strategist with Crosby/Textor; Tom Elliott, son of former party treasurer John Elliott, Harold Holt’s grandson, Robert, and lawyer-turned-minister Rufus Black. Adviser Ross Fox has been touted, as have state MP Michael O’Brien and Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam.

Talk of the seat being used to accommodate a comeback by Mal Brough, defeated in his Queensland seat of Longman at the November 24 election, quickly abated. Michelle Grattan of The Age reported last week of concern in the Liberal camp that whoever gets the nod won’t be able to take the by-election for granted.

UPDATE: Andrew Landeryou has a breathtakingly comprehensive account of the Liberal numbers game in Higgins.

Gippsland (Nationals 5.9%): Perhaps the most exciting prospect in electoral terms is the possibility of a keenly fought three-way contest if Peter McGauran abandons the family fiefdom of Gippsland. The Liberals are reportedly confident they can win the seat from the Nationals, but the seat is also the best chance of a Labor by-election boilover if things go pear-shaped for Brendan Nelson. Andrew Landeryou relates gossip suggesting that those with an eye on the Liberal nomination include Phil Davis, a state upper house MP with a reportedly strong presence in local branches, and Julian McGauran, Senator and brother of Peter who defected from the Nationals to the Liberals in January 2006.

Berowra (Liberal 8.9%): One might think that Philip Ruddock, who turns 65 next month, would be a prime candidate for an early departure. In December, Tony Wright of The Age wrote that Liberal hopefuls were “already circling” for the chance to replace Ruddock when he “inevitably” pulled the plug. However, Ruddock has publicly indicated his intention to serve out a full term, and Brendan Nelson sounds convinced he will do so.

Lyne (Nationals 8.6%): While he has not been a focus of the most recent reports, it is widely felt that Mark Vaile might not be inclined to stay the full three-year course.

ACNielsen has followed yesterday’s Victorian state poll with the one we’ve all been waiting for: the first New South Wales poll to follow the series of disasters that befell Morris Iemma’s 12-year-old Labor government last week. Unfortunately, the poll was conducted “from February 15 to 19 – significantly, before the worst of the Wollongong corruption scandal”. Labor is still in front, leading 51-49 compared with 52.3-47.7 at the March 2007 election, but this reduces to 50-50 following “analysis of the figures based on the allocation of preferences at the last election, under the optional preferential system”. Iemma’s approval rating has slumped to 34 per cent from 52 per cent at the time of the election, which was presumably the last time ACNielsen conducted a state poll.

In other poll news, things aren’t looking good for Helen Clark. Note the recent parallels between Australian and New Zealand poll trends in this chart covering the year up to last September.

The Age has today published an ACNielsen survey of 1001 voters on Victorian state voting intention, which shows Labor leading 48 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote and 59-41 on two-party preferred. This compares with 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election.

We’re now half way through a quiet period in the presidential primaries calendar, which will end with the last major contests in Texas and Ohio next Tuesday. The graphs below show Democratic opinion polling over the past two weeks, bearing in mind that there are almost as many pollsters represented here as polls. The pollsters only record responses from “likely” Democratic voters, which makes it hard for them to get what would strike Australian observers as an impressive sample size: the range was 564 to 902 in Ohio, and 403 to 660 in Texas. Figures sourced from Real Clear Politics.

7.58pm. Notional preference count now up to half, producing no change worth mentioning.

7.54pm. Notional distribution of preferences, based on a bit less than a quarter of the vote, gives a Liberal-versus-Greens two-party preferred of 69.5-30.5.

7.51pm. I speak too soon: Murdoch University now in. Only 478 votes, so not sure what took them so long. This turns out to be a good booth for the Greens, which stands to reason, pushing their vote back up to 26.3 per cent.

7.46pm. The only outstanding booths from 2005 are North Lake Senior Campus, which is located in neighbouring Willagee, and the tiny Murdoch University car park booth, which they probably haven’t bothered with this time. So that might be it for the evening. Congratulations then to Christian Porter, former Poll Bludger classmate and (by all accounts) soon-to-be Shadow Attorney-General.

7.41pm. The addition of another booth has reduced the Greens vote from 26.4 per cent to 26.0 per cent.

7.35pm. Welcome to my half-arsed live coverage of the Murdoch by-election, held today to fill the vacancy in the Perth southern suburbs state seat following the death of Liberal member Trevor Sprigg. With a field consisting of Liberal candidate Christian Porter plus candidates from the Greens, Christian Democratic Party and One Nation, the result is a foregone conclusion, so feel free to consider this an open thread on Western Australian politics. We’ve now got nine of 12 booths in, and the Greens might be pleased with their 26.4 per cent share of the vote. However, Porter is obviously home and hosed with 63.0 per cent.

This post began life as an addendum to my post on the Dennis Shanahan article, which read as follows:

In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent below average, with Braddon and Franklin 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent above. So the redistribution will presumably involve a transfer of territory from Franklin to Lyons, which is unlikely to make much difference to anyone’s electoral prospects. Changes to the more sensitive Bass and Braddon are likely to be negligible. Uniquely, Tasmanian boundary changes have effect at both federal and state level.

I am promoting it partly because my contention that it will be of little electoral consequence has been disputed by Scotty in comments:

The most likely booths to go to Lyons are probably Labor’s best larger booths in Franklin. Bridgewater, Gagebrook and maybe even Risdon Vale if moved to Lyons would significantly shrink the margin in Franklin. In turn this would make Lyons much safer. This may result in a preselection in Lyons as Dick Adams’ personal vote is no longer needed to win that seat.

Furthermore, it has belatedly come to my notice that the Tasmanian Electoral Commission has published proposed boundaries for a redistribution of the state’s 15 upper house districts. Given the lack of party competition in upper house elections, it’s hard to say what the significance of this is, if any. I do have a question though for Tasmanian state politics buffs: given that the upper house never dissolves, when and how do the changes take effect?

More on the redistribution from Peter Tucker.

Roy Morgan, which normally goes easy on “beauty contest” questions, has today entered the fray with a phone poll of 527 respondents. It gives Brendan Nelson the same 9 per cent preferred prime minister rating he suffered from Newspoll, with Kevin Rudd on 77 per cent compared with Newspoll’s 70 per cent. That’s not the worst of it though: on the question of preferred Liberal leader, Nelson can only manage equal fourth place behind Malcolm Turnbull (24 per cent), Peter Costello (18 per cent) and Joe Hockey (13 per cent). Nelson and Alexander Downer are both on 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd is favoured as Labor leader by 66 per cent over 15 per cent for Julia Gillard; in the absence of Rudd, 50 per cent would favour Gillard over 8 per cent for Wayne Swan.