Voting has begun in today’s Florida primaries, the last to be held before Super Tuesday apart from Republican caucuses in Maine on Saturday. For refusing to play by the rules of the parties’ national committees, Florida has been stripped of the 210 delegates it would normally send to the Democratic national convention, along with half of its 114 Republican delegates. All 57 of the Republican delegates will be pledged to the winning candidate, whereas the Democratic primary amounts to nothing more than an opinion poll. Polls show John McCain and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the Republican race, with Rudy Giuliani looking very unlikely to pull off his Florida-first strategy.

Two months after the November 24 federal election, the fun is still not over: Labor’s candidate for McEwen, Rob Mitchell, has launched a challenge against his 12-vote defeat at the hands of Liberal member Fran Bailey, who won on a recount that overturned Mitchell’s initial seven-vote win. The disparity between the two counts can essentially be put down to differing rulings by the divisional returning officer, who oversaw the first count, and the state returning officer, who adjudicated on 640 disputed ballots. Ben Doherty of The Age reported on Labor’s complaints after the poll was declared on December 18:

The Age was told that on one ballot paper, an elector had crossed out the names of all the candidates, replacing them with the hand-written names “Mark Skaife”, “Craig Lowndes”, “Todd Kelly” and other V8 Supercar drivers. The voter then donkey-voted, numbering the boxes alongside one to eight downwards. The numbers favoured Ms Bailey on preferences and, after being ruled informal in the initial count, it was contested by the Liberal Party and ruled a formal vote for the recount … Most of the disputed ballots are in question because of hard-to-read numbers, or “1”s which might be ticks.

The High Court now has the power either to overturn Bailey’s win, or declare the result void and initiate a by-election. For what it’s worth, the Electoral Act states that the court “must make its decision on a petition as quickly as is reasonable in the circumstances”.

This post will be progressively updated as events unfold in the lead-up to Western Australia’s Murdoch by-election, to be held to replace recently deceased Liberal member Trevor Sprigg. The date for the by-election was set last week for February 23, which has left the Liberals complaining they have just days to finalise a candidate ahead of Thursday’s close of nominations. Beyond that the by-election is looming as something of a fizzer, with Labor state secretary Bill Johnston telling the media the party is unlikely to field a candidate. Given the government’s political difficulties following the Brian Burke-related resignation of Health Department director-general Neale Fong, this would probably be a sensible decision. Nonetheless, the first opinion poll conducted after Troy Buswell’s messy Liberal leadership takeover last fortnight is all good news for Labor, even if it does come from the erratic Westpoll. Published in yesterday’s West Australian, the monthly survey of 410 voters shows an improbably large 10-point reversal on two-party preferred in favour of Labor, who now lead 58-42 after trailing 52-48 a month ago. No word yet on potential Liberal preselection candidates, at least to my knowledge.

January 30. ABC television reports the Liberals have preselected UWA law lecturer Christian Porter, who had frequently been mentioned as a possible successor to Colin Barnett in Cottesloe (now expected to go to Deirdre Willmott, policy director with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry). Porter is the grandson of Charles Robert Porter, who locked horns with Joh Bjelke-Petersen as a Queensland Liberal MP in the 1970s, and the son of Charles “Chilla” Porter, a former state party director and fundraiser closely associated with Noel Crichton-Browne. He was also a classmate of your correspondent in the UWA political science honours program in 1993.

January 31. The West Australian reports that Porter won preselection “emphatically” over Graham Kierath, the Court government workplace relations minister who lost his seat of Riverton in 2001 and ran unsuccessfully for Alfred Cove in 2005.

February 1. Nominations closed today, confirming that Labor will not field a candidate. The four candidates in ballot paper order:

Christian Porter (Liberal).

Ka-ren Chew (Christian Democratic Party). Chew is a local solicitor who ran as the CDP candidate for Tangney at the November 24 federal election.

Neil Gilmour (One Nation). The party’s state president, Gilmour was candidate for Curtin at the 2001 federal election and the South Metropolitan upper house region at the 2005 election.

Hsien Harper (Greens). Australian Services Union organiser and candidate for Willagee at the 2005 state election.

Australia Day festivities prevented me putting this thread up in a timely fashion, but better late than never. Barack Obama has polled 55 per cent of the vote in today’s Democratic primary in South Carolina, which has the country’s third highest proportion of African-Americans behind Mississippi and Louisiana. Hillary Clinton took second place with 27 per cent, ahead of John Edwards on 18 per cent.

The first honeymoon Newspoll has Labor leading 46 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote and 58-42 on two-party preferred (hat tip to James J). Kevin Rudd has a predictably massive 68-11 lead as preferred prime minister, and personal ratings of 59 per cent satisfied, 11 per cent unsatisfied and 30 per cent undecided. However, Brendan Nelson has also started well with a surprisingly strong 36 per cent approval rating – although his 19 per cent disapproval is also high under the circumstances, as demonstrated by this table showing earlier opposition leaders’ ratings at their first Newspolls:

The only point of comparison for an incoming government in Newspoll’s historical data (which goes back to 1985) is the Howard government’s debut entry of 52 per cent to 34 per cent on the primary vote, with no two-party figure available. Past incoming prime ministers’ ratings were Paul Keating’s 21 per cent satisfied, 42 per cent dissatisfied and 37 per cent uncommitted, and John Howard’s 45 per cent, 12 per cent and 43 per cent.

Presenting a thread in which you may all chew the fat about today’s presidential election action from South Carolina and Nevada. Republicans in South Carolina are holding an open primary (meaning any voter can participate in one primary or the other, regardless of their registration) to choose 24 delegates from the national total of 2380. It would normally be 47 delegates, but the state has been penalised for “allocating delegates outside of the Republican National Committee-approved timeframe”. The South Carolina Democratic open primary will be held next week, choosing 54 delegates from a national total of 4050. Forty-five of these are pledged to particular candidates; the remaining nine are unpledged “superdelegates” who attend the national convention as senior party office holders. In Nevada both parties will hold closed caucuses: closed means only voters registered with the party can participate, while caucuses means there is no secret ballot. The state’s Democrats get 33 pledged delegates along with eight superdelegates; the Republicans have 31 delegates determined by the caucuses plus three unpledged Republican National Committee members (the term superdelegates does not get used in relation to the Republicans, for some reason).

Morgan has released the first federal opinion poll of the new year, showing the two-party honeymoon gap widening to 61.5-38.5 from 60.5-39.5 from the previous survey in early December. Labor’s primary vote is up 2 per cent to 51.5 per cent, and the Coalition’s down 1 per cent to 33 per cent.

The hapless Western Australian Liberals have a new leader after incumbent Paul Omodei stepped aside at today’s party room meeting. His successor is Vasse MP Troy Buswell (right), who just five days ago told the media he needed “more experience in the House and more time to develop before I could be considered for that position”. This was prompted by a now celebrated display of tired and emotional behaviour in parliament last October, which culminated in him pulling on the bra strap of a Labor staffer in the Speaker’s office. News of this episode came to light courtesy of a letter to the Albany Advertiser by Paul Omodei’s electorate officer Ron Scott, whom Omodei has refused to dismiss. Carine MP Katie Hodson-Thomas (who today made a surprise announcement she would retire at the coming election) subsequently complained of being subjected to “inappropriate” remarks from Buswell in the presence of male colleagues, with other unnamed Liberals suggesting he had a “reputation” for such behaviour.

These developments appeared to put an end to months of leadership jockeying by Buswell, who by all accounts had the numbers to dislodge Omodei (left) following a series of bad opinion polls and a disastrous performance in last February’s Peel by-election. The West Australian responded with an editorial on Monday arguing that the party “must persuade Troy Buswell that while his behaviour in Parliament last October was juvenile, stupid and not befitting of a member of Parliament, it was not so reprehensible that he need rule himself out of leadership contention” – a line which evidently echoed the feeling in the party room. The West’s Robert Taylor reported on a “tense one-hour meeting” on Tuesday at which Omodei and Buswell agreed that the issue would be resolved at today’s party meeting, which nobody doubted would result in Buswell assuming the leadership if he chose to contest it.

Buswell’s rocky rise to the top comes just three years after he entered parliament at the February 2005 state election as member for Vasse, where he won preselection at the expense of sitting member Bernie Masters. Masters ran against Buswell as an independent and came within 209 votes of defeating him. Buswell went on to play a key role in the dumping of Matt Birney, who led the party for a year after the 2005 election and recently announced he would not contest the coming election. It was widely believed in the party that Buswell had pledged his vote to Birney but subsequently voted for Omodei, who prevailed by one vote in an outcome the Liberals would have little cause to celebrate in hindsight. High-profile Hillarys MP Rob Johnson, who stood against Buswell in today’s leadership vote (there has been no word on the result of the count), said at the time: “His cowardly and gutless disloyalty will be the start of his demise and I think you will find the shining star of Troy Buswell will diminish over the coming months. Let me tell you, if he is the future of the Liberal Party then God help the Liberal Party.”

Robert Taylor wrote in The West this week that Buswell’s strategy was to unite members of his own faction, which is associated with current Senators Chris Ellison and Mathias Cormann and the recently departed Ian Campbell, with the opposing Noel Crichton-Browne camp. This has been achieved through an alliance with party upper house leader Norman Moore, who is “strongly identified” with Crichton-Browne. Taylor reported that Moore was “expected to retire at the next election but is now on the verge of going around for another four years”, sending “a strong message to those MPs still furious with Mr Buswell over his support for Mr Omodei in his battle with Mr Birney”.

It would be something of an understatement to say that the plot has not come to fruition under the happiest of circumstances. The ABC reported that today’s leadership vote was delayed 25 minutes while the party awaited the arrival of Murdoch MP Trevor Sprigg (right). It was then held without him after news arrived he was being hospitalised after a suspected heart attack. Half an hour later, the ABC reported that Sprigg had died. Buswell now faces an immediate test of his electoral appeal in the reasonably safe southern suburbs seat of Murdoch, where the newcomer Sprigg boosted the party’s margin from 4.1 per cent to 5.9 per cent at the February 2005 election. Murdoch will be abolished as of the next election due to the one-vote one-value redistribution, to be replaced by the new seat of Bateman. According to Antony Green’s calculations, the Liberal margin in the new seat is 6.9 per cent. The map belows shows the old (green) and new (red) boundaries with booth results from the 2005 election.

UPDATE: The West Australian “understands” that the result of the ballot was 17 votes for Troy Buswell and 10 for Rob Johnson, “with one MP scrawling the name Paul Omodei on the ballot”. It also observes that Nedlands MP and Shadow Attorney-General Sue Walker was absent from the meeting, “fuelling speculation that she intends to run for her seat of Nedlands as an independent at the next election”.