With Victorian Premier Steve Bracks having visited the Governor this morning to observe the formality of issuing the election writs, the campaign period is now officially under way. As promised earlier, the Poll Bludger election guide will definitely be in business from tomorrow. In the meantime, I have knocked together the following graphs indicating the progress of the two-party contest in the past term, as recorded by the two major polling agencies. First up, Newspoll:

The numbers indicate the timing of the following events. 1. The government’s Scoresby Freeway tolls backflip; 2. The Royal Children’s Hospital consultancy tendering controversy; 3. Opposition calls for a royal commission into police corruption; 4. Refunds announced for speeding fines due to faulty cameras; 5. Federal election campaign and Coalition freeway funding promise; 6. Police Minister Andre Haermeyer dumped in reshuffle; 7. New Police Minister Tim Holding admits he didn’t read a memo regarding the police files issue; 8. Robert Doyle’s backflip on freeway tolls; 9. Commonwealth Games; 10. Ted Baillieu replaces Robert Doyle as Liberal leader.

Next up, Roy Morgan:

There have also been four ACNielsen/AgePoll surveys conducted since late last year, which have produced impressively consistent results.

Galaxy Research has created a buzz by showing a lower-than-expected Labor lead of 52-48 in its poll in today’s Herald-Sun. However, it comes on the same day as an ACNielsen poll in The Age showing a Labor lead of 56-44, in line with general expectations. A discussion on the upper house contest at Larvatus Prodeo brings my attention to this analysis by Russell Degnan from June last year, which seems to paint a rosier picture for Labor than my own assessment.

UPDATE (25/10/06): Newspoll says 54-46.

One month after my last post, and with emails starting to trickle in asking if I’m still in business, a quick update on my activities would seem to be in order. As you have probably guessed, I have spent much of this time working on my guide to the November 25 Victorian election, which will go live on November 1 regardless of what state it’s in. That will mark the beginning of the high-intensity Poll Bludger campaign coverage you have come to know and love. I will also be visiting my erstwhile home town of Melbourne from November 15 to view the latter stages of the campaign first hand.