Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Category Archives: Queensland Election 2004

ACT election live

11.15pm. A very strong performance by the Greens at the Lyneham booth in Molonglo (29.2 per cent) has been cancelled out by other late booths: the Greens (1.47) now trail the Liberals (2.49) in the hunt for the last quota.
11.07pm. I earlier said a third Labor seat in Ginninderra would go to Dave Peebles, but [...]

Call of the board

At the close of last night’s count Labor were ahead in 64 seats, the Nationals in 14, Liberal in six, One Nation in one and independents in four. It is universally anticipated that postal votes and the remaining undeclared booth will see off Labor’s eight vote lead in Charters Towers. The National Party have also [...]

I take it all back

Just kidding. Two hours out from the closure of polls I thought it worth noting that the Sunshine Coast Daily today carries "pre-poll booth exit polls" of 100 respondents each for five electorates on its turf, suggesting Labor-held Kawana and Liberal-held Caloundra will change hands assuming preferences do the job in the former (Labor’s Chris [...]

Poll that matters

Newspoll hath spoken. Lest we forget, this organisation showed what it was worth at the last Queensland election with a final survey that nailed Labor’s score to within 0.1 per cent and was only 1 per cent out for each of the Coalition parties. With this record any sensible observer would do well to regard [...]

Only one more day o’ pollin’, one more day-o …

Crikey today provided an assessment from Melbourne-based election watcher Charles Richardson, whose reading of the Queensland situation is broadly in line with the Poll Bludger’s except that he takes an ever dimmer view of the Liberal Party’s prospects. Only Clayfield and Barron River are nominated as potential Liberal gains, so no Noosa, Kawana or Indooroopilly. [...]

Fourth thoughts, roughies, more polls

The Courier Mail today provides the final TNS Global poll for the campaign (Newspoll presumably to follow tomorrow) and it has fortified the Poll Bludger in most of his earlier convictions. Once again the results are frustratingly incomplete - we are given a statewide two-party preferred split of 58-42 and told that on the Gold [...]

Second and third thoughts

The Poll Bludger has received outstanding intelligence from Queensland observer Peter Krumins which has prompted what will no doubt be the first of many second thoughts about my predictions for the Queensland election outcome. Krumins has also submitted his observations to Peter Brent at Mumble, where they may be read in full.

Firstly, I recognise now [...]

Polls and prophecies

The last few days have produced a flurry of localised opinion polling, much of it dubious but all of it pointing so firmly in the same direction that only one conclusion is possible - the Coalition faces another catastrophe of biblical proportions this Saturday. By failing to put themselves within reach of victory next time, [...]

Crystal ball time

Dan Van Blarcom may consider himself the inaugural recipient of the Poll Bludger Kiss of Death. Apparently if this site describes you as "promising" (see somewhere in the middle of this lengthy posting) that means you can expect the entire nation to be shown a photo of you wearing a swastika armband before the week [...]

A bunch of dickheads

The idea for a post on Graham Elmes, the colourful National Party candidate for the Cape York electorate of Cook, had been brewing for a while, but the last day’s events have prompted an article by Michael Madigan in the Courier Mail which said a large amount of what needed to be said. For those [...]