Jun 29 2008
Taverner: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW
Hot on the heels of a New South Wales state Newspoll headlined 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour (but which Antony Green says should have been 54-46), the Sun-Herald today carries an even worse result for Labor from Taverner. This has the Coalition surging to a 56-44 lead after trailing 51-49 in February. No sample size is given, but the February survey was 550. On the primary vote, Labor has dropped from 39 per cent to a disastrous 29 per cent, with the Coalition up from 37 per cent to 46 per cent (it’s possible the undecided have not been distributed). Hats off to Fairfax’s Lisa Carty for having noted Antony’s recent sermon on the increased importance of the primary vote under optional preferential voting. The accompanying article speaks of a looming leadership change, with Labor MPs “hardening in their resolve that Mr Iemma must be sacrificed to give them a chance of holding on to government in 2011”.
UPDATE: A scanned copy of the full results courtesy of James J in comments. The sample was 602; the undecided had indeed not been distributed, but there were only 3 per cent of them. Also featured are questions on privatisation, the Labor leadership and the Belinda Neal episode.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:30 am
I predict the 2011 NSW State Election results to be:
ALP- 12 seats
Liberal Party- 64 seats
National Party- 15 seats
Independent- 2 seats
June 29th, 2008 at 5:06 am
Looks like NSW Labor have got a job getting the ship back on course. This is by no means impossible to do between now and 2011.
But beyond psephology, there must be a strong “It’s time!” factor happening in NSW by now. They’ve been in since 1995, so they’ve outlasted the Howard government.
I hear there’s a strong “It’s time!” factor happening in the UK atm as well. Maybe Parliamentary governments have a maximum life expectancy?
June 29th, 2008 at 5:32 am
“Maybe Parliamentary governments have a maximum life expectancy?” That’s not relevant here. The Iemma Government is doing an appalling job in many aspects and people are sick of it. If they were doing a decent job they’d still be popular as the Liberal Party of NSW don’t exactly shine.
June 29th, 2008 at 6:18 am
The old saying ‘a week is a long time in politics’ is apt here. However it does appear as though there is something rotten in the state of Iemma. Do they have the will to fix it, somehow I doubt it. It will probably be a good thing to have a change to sweep away some of the arrogance of power that seems to have crept into this administration (Costa being a prime example), however the Libs don’t exactly inspire at the moment.
June 29th, 2008 at 6:20 am
Iemma won’t survive the year.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Pity Iemma’s going to lose it rather than the Tories winning it. Certainly a lot different than Rudd old boy — who won it.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:59 am
Michael I believe that’s your political bias speaking. In any case it certainly doesn’t make it any better that a party loses an election rather than the other one winning it.
June 29th, 2008 at 8:19 am
To be honest I think the financial administration of NSW has been so poor in the period since the Olympics that they (Iemma Labor) deserve to go. They are indeed arrogant but thats not only the only reason they deserve to lose; take a look at the NSW economy and ask yourself: why?
This govenment has a huge problem with recurrent spending being too high meaning that they couldn’t invest in the future even when revenues were well ahead of forecasts. They have assiduously avoided facing that problem. The privatisations proposed have been a very expensive form of industrial relations reform when you lack the courage to reform the organisations from within. And beyond the lack of administrative competence, the cronyism stretching from Woolongong to Newcastle, and many Councils in between, needs to be cleaned out. There are too many in the NSW Labor gravy-train enriching themselves at public expense IMO. They are so bad that (as with Neal recently) I think they are hurting Labor nationaly. For Labor’ sake, I hope they are swept out soon. Having an incompetent opposition shouldn’t entitle you to a job for life.
June 29th, 2008 at 8:35 am
The full results are in the print edition. I’ve scanned them for those who can’t get a hold of a copy.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/uploads/21_nswtaverner2906.jpg
June 29th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Though not a good result, I am worried that the small sample size could have skewed the results. At 550 you have to ask where the samples were taken. To me there is a general trend down, but this is aberrant.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:17 am
“Mr Iemma must be sacrificed”
Yes, but how?
Tie him to the train tracks, but may be waiting a while for a train.
Gas him in one of the smoke stack ventilators, but with traffic delays may not be any traffic to generate the emissions.
Quarter him using the Spit Bridge, unless it jams.
Looks like will have to strap him to a electricity transformer and zap him.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:18 am
The scenario for the 2011 NSW state election is this:
There are 93 seats in the parliament.
47 are needed for a majority.
The Liberal/Nationals currently have 35, and so will need to gain 12 more.
I see them increasing by about 8, as follows:
Miranda & Menai (2 southern suburban commuter seats).
Wollondilly, Camden & Monaro (3 white, semi-rural, redneck seats).
Gosford, The Entrance, Wyong (all central coast, if 1 goes, the other 2 will follow).
So the Lib/Nats will still in all probability fall short by about 4.
Thus the 6 independents will wield a lot of power.
I say this because the coalition will STRUGGLE to win in the *next few seats up the pendulum*. They would need to win 4 of the below (and none look very good for the coalition):
- Londonderry (too bogan to vote Liberal)
- Coogee (green preferences will save Labor)
- Drummoyne (going upmarket, but NOT in a Liberal way)
- Heathcote (still too blue collar to vote Liberal)
- Penrith (lineball, pork barrelling on infrastructure will save Labor)
- Maitland (hard to see it happening)
- Riverstone (McMansion territory, Liberals have underdeveloped party machinery here)
- Ryde (John Watkins personal vote will carry the seat for Labor)
- Rockdale (too ethnic to vote Liberal)
- Swansea (too close to Newcastle for the Liberals to win)
- Blue Mountains (too many old fogeys, they will vote Liberal)
- Granville (too ethnic)
- Mulgoa (no chance, unless labor decides to build an airport here)
- Macquarie Fields (Centrelink recipients ain’t voting Liberal)
- Kiama (still too working class)
- Sydney (queers, druggies, homeless bag people will stay with Clover).
- Cessnock & Bathurst (no incentive to switch to the National party)
- Parramatta (the large Indian community won’t vote Liberal)
- East Hills (contains Bankstown in it, so no)
- Oatley (again, too ethnic)
- Toongabbie (pigs will fly before the Liberals win Blacktown)
- Charlestown (too depressing and bogan to vote Liberal)
- Strathfield (same as Drummoyne, will get close - but no change)
June 29th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Iemma is safe however as long as the right wing powerbrokers prop him up!
All Morris’s potential challengers are from the left of the party, the likes of Tripodi and Obeid don’t want Watkins or Tebbutt in the top job, Nathan Rees would be considered too inexperienced! My suspicion is that there’ll be an attempt to promote someone from the right as an alternative, Frank Sartor for instance. But, at the same time, if things deteriorate even more, you’ll find Watkins challenging.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:41 am
They have to dump Iemma and Costa to at least protect the party for a train wreck. And perhaps the rail system from a train wreck too.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:52 am
The sample was 602 by telephone on Wed, Thursday and Friday (small print pg
June 29th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Of (slightly) more immediate interest is the issue of what damage NSW Labor inflicts on the Rudd Government at the next federal election - which is almost certain to pre-date the March 2011 NSW poll. And if you think voters are smart enough (and disciplined enough) not to mix-up state and federal issues, just take a look at what happened in Queensland in 1987,1990 and 1995 and Victoria in 1990. Going to be interesting
June 29th, 2008 at 10:17 am
So Chris, you think Rudd will be pushing for Iemma’s removal?
June 29th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I’m a Liberal voter and I think it will be a disaster if Iemma & Costa are replaced by Watkins and another Treasurer. Seriously, Costa is the only one in the Labor party capable of steering NSW out of the financial mess it is in.
Watkins may look good in front of the camera but a he’s a poor Minister who thinks the solution to every problem is to throw money at it.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:42 am
14 Chris from Edgecliff, and yet Howard managed to win elections while his state counterparts were being demolished in state polls.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Gary
You miss the point and trying to twist the issue to you own subjective beliefs. Voters when voting at one level (federal, say) will punish a sitting government at the other level (at the state, say). As Glen from Edgecliff says, there are lots of examples (Victoria in 1990, NSW in 1996 being two examples where the federal libs benefited from voters punishing state governments). John Howard could win as it was state liberal oppositions who were getting slaughtered for possibly the actions of his government.
On Friday night lateline, Rod Cameron described the NSW Labor brand as ‘damaged’. The way they are going they could bring down Rudd by themselves, and of course any federal election has to be held before the next NSW State election.
NSW Labor is in dire trouble and they don’t have much room for manouvre. The opinion poll figures are similar to those in Victoria in 1990 and 1991, And as we all know, the stench of rotting flesh only hets stronger!
June 29th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Gary, the next Fed election could coincide with a passionately anti-Labor feeling in NSW. There wasn’t a passionate anti-Lib feeling in elections Howard won; they respected state Labor and thought the opposition was hopeless.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
To be making scenarios about two elections 2 and a half to three years hence is folly at best. A week is a long time in politics. Besides the fear of Workchoices will still be alive and well. That fear campaign is not over by any means.
By the way, what happened to the talk of the Liberal brand being damaged? People will say things that fit the situation at the moment and be proven badly wrong in time. That’s politics.
June 29th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Nice to see so many conservative supporters up and about though.
June 29th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Blackburnpseph @ 18
While I agree with the essence of your post, it is worth noting that the next NSW election is due end of March 2011. The current federal parliament does not expire until 12 February 2011, meaning the election could well be held in March (or April for that matter)
Of course, that’s highly unlikely - for one, the media will pronounce 2010 as the ‘election year’ and Rudd will get pounded if he drags it on until early ‘11, for another Rudd isn’t suicidal and know full well NSW will drag him down if he waits until then, and for a third, I highly suspect we will see a DD long before then anyway.
But the point remains, the two elections could potentially coincide.
Anybody else think it’s about time we re-addressed fixed parliamentary terms for out federal representatives?
June 29th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Max,
I think it is time to deal with fixed terms for the federal parliament, but it won’t happen until Labor gets over 1975. A fixed three-year term is no gain in my opinion. A fixed four-year term is the way to go, which means eight-year terms for the Senate. This is not a problem for me or for the SA and NSW Legislative Councils, but it is a problem for some. A fixed term also has to have an “out” for a government that has lost the confidence of parliament before the term expires. That immediately runs into the question of the Senate’s power to block supply. I have no problem with the Senate’s having that power, but Labor still does. If Labor would give up its hostility to the Senate’s power to block supply and come up with a mechanism for dealing with its admittedly unlikely use of that power, then we might have a way to get the bipartisan support essential to the constitutional amendment for four-year fixed terms.
June 29th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Amazing result for the Democrats when you think about it, although it would take much more than a single poll of this size to indicate a comeback.
June 29th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Fixed terms are not going to happen. Either side wants to hang themselves with it. Some will be able to suggest that it is a power grab by greedy pollies and it will die.
How does a vote of no confidence work with fixed terms? If neither side has a majority and can govern in minority then what happens?
June 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
I agree with the analysis by old_guard at 12 at least in part.
There are a clear 8 or so seats but the real issue is the country independents. The Libs need to take out some of the pro-Labor country independents to win. Otherwise you will have a minority Labor or Liberal Government which will just be a disaster for the state.
At the moment I just cant see the Libs doing it, however 3 more years of this could produce a Kirner style melt-down in 2011
June 29th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
edward is spot on the money - the regional seats will be the ones to watch in 2011. But i can’t see the nats (if they are still the nats by then!) moving the independents in dubbo, tamworth and definitely not northern tablelands. The only one that could be risky is port mac - if oakeshott decides to move federally - but I think the good folk on the hastings would think twice before going back to the white shoe brigade Nats there.
Can’t see nats moving any more of the country labor seats - except maybe maitland.
Problem for the coaltion is that the average age of their MP’s is arond sixty - alot of them have been there for 20 years - and the idea of regaining government and getting their snouts back in the trough will be irresistable for many. Thye need generation change - comething there tired head offices should have accomplished last election - but we all know the problems there. On the other hand labor did manage some generation change - alot more needed but they clearly have more talent - look at MP’s for maroubra, monaro, granville, newcastle etc.
My tip is Iemma to come home with a wet sail - there’s alot of infratsructure announcements in the pipeline, he’ll stare down the left on the partial privatisation (and when everyone realises it’s not a full sale they’ll wonder what on earth the unions were on about.)
Labor by a comfortable whisker - with the country independents as a bit of insurance.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
True adorno,
For example the Libs have Malcolm Kerr in Cronulla and Wayne Merton in the Hills who have been there forever. Presumably if the Libs actually do want to govern they need to move people like that on.
Come home with a wet sail? Not sure about that. The problem for the ALP is the demands of government essentially require them to do down their public sector union base. You have a union movement with approximately 600,000 members in NSW of whom more than half are public servants. For the unions giving in on electricity etc means well and truly the beginning of the end given the unions have 20,000 members alone in public sector - the real reform in the public sector will probably cost the unions about 100,000 members - for some of the unions that means insolvency particularly in circumstances of a continuing bleed of private sector union members. Hence the difficulties of the State government.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Sorry should 20,000 members in the public electricity sector
June 29th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Hence robbo’s vitriol towards iemma.
Who’d want to be in state government anyway - health budget is spiralling out of control - and in nsw you’re stuck between the smh ( a rock) and the telegraph ( a hard place)
June 29th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
There is no way a Labor Government will survive the 2011 election in NSW.
Electors will at last recognise they cannot continue voting for a party of corrupt members.
Iemma either cleans up the act or falls on his sword now.
In the end it does not matter, much the Labor party across the country is corrupt from power and needs to be booted from power for the good of the country.
June 29th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Further to above if voters cannot find a better alternative we are all stuffed!
June 29th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Is there a point when we say THE TEAM LABOR is not what we want? Have we seen enough corruption across all Labor Governments to break the team allegiance? Whilst there is no way I will vote coalition there is no way I will vote Labor in State politics.
The problem with our system is two choices is inadequate.
We need to be active in change not status quo support.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Victorian Labor has been accused of many things but corrupt isn’t one of them.
June 29th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Libs should win NSW in 2011. The issue is not just looking at the seats where there might be a preferences boilover, but as Antony green has pointed out previously here, where the ALP falls behind on primaries. While the Green vote may be up, there’ll also be plenty of Green voters who will not wish to preference the ALP, and a rather significant number of local Green branches making the same decision on HTV’s. This could cost the ALP both votes and seats. So, deal Coogee in, and maybe the Blue Mountains. Consider the ALP may yet lose Marrickville and Balmain to the Greens, although this will also depend on whether the Lib vote rises in these two electorates. Heathcote and Kiama are both seats in demographic flux, with sea-changers and retiree’s (as well as commuters in Heathcote resenting the ever-inconsistent rail service). And I wouldn’t put it past voters in Rockdale giving Sartor a shock.
Now these might not seem like low hanging fuit, but if the quite genuine anger towards the ALP continues then it will become harder and harder to retain these seats. And then there is seats like Londonderry & Riverstone where mortgage issues are biting. Penrith should have already fallen when these two come into play.
So I think its there for the Coalition to lose. Electorate seem comfortable to now deliver up big swings - think Mal Brough (who lost) and Pat Farmer (to squeeked back in).
June 29th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
thats “Pat Farmer (who squeaked back in).”
June 30th, 2008 at 12:25 am
Conventional wisdom about what seats will fall lose all meaning when we’re talking about a sub-30 primary vote. I think the marginals in the Central Coast, Macarthur and Sutherland are basically gone. I can’t see them being held in any reasonable scenario, and that is enough to deprive Labor of a majority.
Beyond that, all bets are off. Seats will likely see all sorts of massive swings.
Also remember that there are more seats where Labor held on against independents, particularly in the Hunter (Maitland, Newcastle, Charlton).
June 30th, 2008 at 7:25 am
Could be - but 1. the Liberals are pretty hopeless and 2. there will need to be enormous Queensland style swings for Labor to lose - seats like Drummoyne, Oatley etc which are +10%. I believe the independent vote will narrow as the election gets closer in time.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:18 am
I think apart from the ones identified by old_guard above, the Liberals have a very good chance of picking up Coogee and that Balmain (NOT Marrickville for a variety of reasons) is a definite prospect for the Greens if Rochelle Porteous contests again. Her recognition in the Leichhardt part of the electorate is enormous.
June 30th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Disagree edward o - the old school Italians in Haberfield etc is what will (ironically) save Verity Firth.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Yeah, that demographic is strong Labor, but they already voted for her last time, so their impact is already factored into the margin - and I bet if Iemma goes some of the support will go too (albeit not much). When Morris turned up to polling booths in the area, there was swooning and cooing.
I think VF is one of the better Ministers in the government, but in regards to representing the electorate, she’s followed through on nothing in particlar, certainly none of the things on the back of her campaign shirts because she thinks all she needs to do is be better than an unknown Liberal bogeyman to be returned. I still think she’s in a lot of trouble. If voters can get it into their heads that the best way of stopping Frank Sartor is to vote out Verity Firth, then I think it’ll be very close indeed, even with an increased Liberal vote.
June 30th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Interesting list of seats up there, from old_guard.
If the Libs can’t win 4 out of:
Riverstone
Drummoyne
Strathfield
Londonderry
Penrith
Oatley
Charlestown
Blue Mountains
then they don’t deserve to form government.
Plus seats like Bathurst, Maitland and Cessnock have had “the libs will privatise the electricity industry” factor in the past. Hard to see that one being revived by the ALP in 2011 to any great effect.
Finally, I know it’s intellectually empty, but many of the areas comprising the above seats were held by Howard.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
None of that will matter in an election. The way a person votes in an election is based on their religion these days. What party you vote for will depend if you are Catholic, Protestant, Hindu, Muslim, etc, etc, etc.
June 30th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Persona a.k.a. Honest John a.k.a. quite a few other things: please do not use more than one identity on a given thread.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
#44
Charlestown might go to an Independent but I doubt the Liberals could win there.
The problem with reading alot of these seats is that the margin has blown out so much since 1999, it’s hard to know if they are still swinging marginals or have been transformed into solid Labor seats (eg Strathfield, Oatley, Ryde, Kogarah, Blue Mtns, Coogee).
June 30th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I can guarantee after the 2011 NSW State Election, the Nationals will outnumber Labor in the Lower House (15 Nationals, 12 ALP). Thats how bad Iemma/Watkins loss will be. The Coalition will have a majority as big as Malcolm Fraser’s in 1975 or John Howard’s in 1996.
June 30th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
From an email just to screen……
“The federal government is sending each and every one of us a $600 rebate.
If we spend that money at K-Mart, the money will go to China.
If we spend it on petrol it will go to the Arabs.
If we purchase a computer it will go to Taiwan.
If we purchase fruit and vegetables it will go to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala,
If we purchase a good car it will go to Japan.
If we purchase useless crap it will go to Korea.
None of it will help the Australian economy. The only way to keep that
money here at home is to spend it on prostitutes and beer,
since these are the only products still produced in Australia.
Thank you for your help. Kevin Rudd & Wayne
Swan. Australian Prime Minister & Australian Treasurer.”
And a Happy Financial New Year to one & all.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
NEW FED NEWSPOLL 55-45
June 30th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
EC,
They could always subscribe to PB which has all the benefits and none of the disadvantages of investing in Australian grown product.
June 30th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Newspoll thread up.
July 1st, 2008 at 5:27 pm
The 1996 and 2004 federal polls in NSW prehaps show what a Labor defeat would look like: the once solid Labor Sydney fringe must eventually go, perhaps the old middle-class once solid Liberal inner suburban pockets. Labor might hold Strathfield as they did Ashfield in 1988. If Labor’s woes are mostly Sydney driven the remaining rural seats might hold on.
July 2nd, 2008 at 7:20 am
For everyone talking about swings in seats please include the exhausted preference system we have here. This magnifies the margins somewhat more than what we are used to thinking about. so a 6% swing would not be out of the question (this shows how useless Peter Debnam actually was).
Further, please also factor in the Local elections here in September. Unfortunately for a lot of the hard working Labor councilors, people are likely to show their displeasure there. I for one am looking at the results in September as a barometer for State Labor (not a good indication but still one).
July 2nd, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Its good to see that the Iemma government has adopted a multi-pronged strategy to earn defeat, in case financial mismanagement and the whiff of roast Iguana isn’t enough. How about the appallingly draconian police powers to stop people “causing annoyance” at Youth Brainwashing Day? As if its bad enough that Iemma, a Catholic, has allocated over $50 million of taxpayers money to support an event solely promoting a single religeon (his own), he now wants powers to stop anyone protesting about it? So much for democracy. I am disturbingly reminded of growing up in Bjelke-Petersen era Queensland.
Quite apart from being financially unsound, and ethically questionable, this decision also looks to be massively unpopular. There is a poll in the SMH about the new powers. 90% of voters are against them:
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/national/voted.html
When you consider that about 27% of the population are Catholic, that suggests that even a majority of Catholics (70%) are against these powers.
July 5th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Watkin’s was on the radio this morning pledging full support for Comrade Iemma. once again - a sure sigh of that Premmie Iemmie is gone for all money. However I suppose they will wait for ould red socks and the other paedophile protectors to depart our shores (after awarding Iemma an Order of Christ in gratitude for him banning rude t-shirts) before a organising a latter day Night of Long Knives.
Personally I can’t wait to see a video of Costa (a country member) being dragged from his bed before being dispatched.
July 5th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I think there will be some nasty shocks next time for Labor. I predict these outer-Sydney marginal ALP seats will swing to the Libs:
Camden, The Entrance, Gosford, Heathcote, Londonderry, Menai, Miranda, Riverstone, Wollondilly, and Wyong.
In Sydney, the Libs will narrowly win Coogee off Labor.
I expect Drummoyne to stay ALP, but only just. You just can’t convince some people how bad the current ALP government is! Strathfield will stay ALP.
The biggest shock of election night 2011 will be the defeat of John Watkins in Ryde. I understand that the same people who threw out John Howard have had an absolute gutful of Watkins. I also think the ALP vote in Rockdale will collapse and Frank Sartor will narrowly lose to his Liberal challenger (what a joyous event that will be!).
Outside of Sydney, the Nats will gain Dubbo, although Steve Whan is popular in Monaro, so that one could be an interesting contest. If the Nats primary vote rises, it will gain Tamworth.
I also predict a narrow Nats victory in Bathurst, after a collapse in the ALP vote.
There may also be some other pleasant surprises. You can expect some independents to win safe Labor seats particularly in the Hunter. I’d say that Verity Firth and Carmel Tebbutt are gone-skis in Balmain and Marrickville, but only if the Libs stitch up a preference deal with the Greens (Greens to win both seats).
Keep an eye on Blue Mountains which could be a shock Libs gain as well.
I’m sure there are others that I’ve left out.
Overall, whether Iemma, Watkins or someone else is leader, the ALP is finished this time in NSW. We’ve had enough and won’t reward their corruption and incompetence again.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
So Braz you are saying the Lib/Nats will pick up 17-18 seats - perhaps more. You seem to forget just how horrible the NSW Libs are. People remember how the Libs and Nats devastated services, education transport and child welfare last time and there were only a few right wing loonies as ministers. Plus they will want to sell off everything not actually nailed down which is not a popular idea in all those swinging seats you mention.
Don’t forget that in 2007 when the NSW ALP was just as on the nose as they are now they still managed to spank the Libs. I can see the GRNs and good Independents doing very well in both houses - at the expense of a coalition outright victory.
Perhaps if we get a situation where we have both houses “hung” the two major parties will get together to try to eliminate the minor parties a la Tasmania.
Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens on 13th September with the LGA elections. I am sure that the ALP will lose control of a lot of councils but who to - if they go LIb/Nat your prediction may hold but if a lot of real inds get up March 2011 will be fascinating.
July 8th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
So, it really seems you New South Welshies are left with a clear choice between the slow moving train wreck that is Morris Iemma or the party more and more controlled by the right reverend David Clarke.
Personally, I’d choose to move to Victoria.
July 8th, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Grant
LOL
though ive tried living in victoria twice ,i still cant get over the fact that it was the ideal place to film “on the beach”