Hey Finns remember that bus, you know the one, the one that youron, under err & now over, yeah that one, right there, lookee, lookee? Reprise? Fares, next stop?
If she raised over $10 million following PA and loaned over $6 million of her own cash to the NC and IN contests, it’s amost certain that all her coffers will be empty now.
So…how is she going to fund the next few campaigns? I mean, would YOU invest in her now???
I’d love to believe that Hillary will concede tomorrow, and if she wants to ever run again she’d better, but I cant see her doing it. The math has been against her for a while and that hasnt stopped her. I think she’ll push on. I hope I’m wrong
“A top Democratic source with insight into Bill’s and Hillary’s states of mind says the Clintons are convinced that a Democratic presidency is all but certain no matter how messy the fight for the nomination.”
what needs to happen is a bunch of SDs to come out tomorrow for Obama. Hillary is going to have to be hounded out of the contest which is silly because (a) she cant win anyway and (b) she’ll never be able to run again
I guess its not the maths that makes today important, as Obama had the maths before today. Its the fact that he survived a firestorm of bad press, that was quite relentless. Very impressive indeed
Obama’s 50/50 split for mchigan and florida is by far the fairest and most politically positive option: the delegations get to join the convention, but cannot affect the result - perfectly fair!
KR @ 1309
Rain is right about ‘theft’ they do ‘own’ ‘it’…but today’s turnout & #’s render the mythematics into a well glazed pair of dog* balls swinging in the breeze just under the Super’s noses…
Clinton will hang on til the bitter end. She has the right to do so and will not relent. A lot of people will admire her for it and in the end she will stump for Obama. People will admire that even more.
codge, i’m an obamaphile. and i’ve never had good feelings about clinton. but i’m starting to respect her tenacity. in the end, she cannot win the nomination, but she can make herself into a formidable voice for the democratic party in november. i’m starting to warm to the idea of the contest running to its historic, ineluctable conclusion.
blindoptimist at 1323
I agree - I don’t think we will see a concession tomorrow - if fact I figure that the next major event in that committee meeting later this month. I’m working on some numbers to see just how desperate this is - and the potential role of John Edwards’ gang of 19.
KR, the housing market is still contracting and is forecast to remain on a declining trajectory for at least the rest of 2008, so you’re right to be worried about Fannie & Freddie. But they are the only reliable buyer in the mortage market at present, so it would be a disaster if they were to retract. It would certainly provoke even more trouble in the glutted housing sector.
And they are both bleeding money at the moment. Losses are piling up, they refuse to re-capitalise because it would further dilute shareholder’s stakes, and Congress cannot force them.
This is where the rubber hits the road between the public good and the private sef-enrichment.
But anyone who has seen the dodgey ‘bookkeeping’ and the shady practices from these two institutions over the years will not be assured that the US mortgage market is in ’safe hands’.
In fact, it’s almost certain to go belly up, and the US taxpayers will be left indentured, or at least will be selling their children into Chinese fuedal servitude.
From slave owners to slaves in a couple of centuries: the history of the United States of America.
I tend to agree that we won’t see a concession tomorrow.
I have a date for you to all mark in though: May 20. The day Obama wins the pledged delegate count.
There’s a handy meter on his site which has been referred to before - it currently states that he needs 34 delegates to secure a majority of pledged delegates. He’ll get a dozen or so from West Virginia next week, and on May 20 there are two primaries with more than enough delegates between them for him to take the magic number.
That speech is going to be dynamic, and the follow on from that swift and brutal. Half - sorry, probably close to 3/4 or more - of the general public don’t understand the delegate system, but put it into nice simple phrases for them - I have a majority - and they tend to get the gist.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if a dozen or so SD’s came out in the day or two after that and said ‘I am endorsing Obama because he has won.’ Perfect reasoning, especially for those who don’t want to annoy the Clinton’s until they can possibly help it. He will be perceived as ‘the winner.’
At that point, Clinton officially takes the Huckabee route. Obama will start talking about her ‘democratic right to see out the race.’ Everything becomes a formality from then. Clinton thus has one of two choices: concede on June 3 or get publicly humiliated in the week or two after, as the SD’s are given no choice but to stand behind their nominee.
That’s how I see the end game unfolding. Plausible?
1331….It’s certainly possible, Max. But why would she concede? She’s been losing for months: it hasn’t been enough to force her out. I think she will make the party go through the whole process. Obama will win and she will be defeated. But she will be unbowed. She is proud of who she is and what she’s trying to do. She won’t just stop because it seems like the convenient thing to do.
blindoptimist at 1343
Nothing - the silence is ‘interesting’.
The roumors are that the Obama campaign are holding back announcements with the notion of announcements corresponding to inevitable good press days for Hilllary in the next couple of weeks - simply because the media for the moment is totally pre-occupied on the ‘Hillary cannot win’ breaking scenario.
I know what you are saying. But I think the game changes completely after June 3. As it stands, party leaders don’t really have the authority or mandate to step in and finish this race publicly. The system is, to put it simply, designed to ensure all states have their say. To step in now would quite rightly piss off a lot of people - they can’t interfere with their own nominating system.
Come June 3, it’s much easier to argue they now have a responsibility to make their intention clear. The public has voted. Theoretically, nothing is going to change in the next two months before the convention. The argument they need ‘more time’ becomes ridiculous. Public pressure will - IMO - ensure most of them come out of their closets.
Why would she concede June 3? Because she can do it with the speech ‘I’m proud I fought for my supporters until the very end, but it’s time to concede now that while we’ve fought the good race, we ultimately came second. Hence, I now formally endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic Nomination of the United States, and release my delegates, urging them to vote for him this August.’
Wounds immediately start to heal. Country breathes sigh of relief. Democrats return to loving Bill Clinton, and respecting his talented wife. Media portrays Hillary as truly noble, and mourns the fact she will never be president, albeit very temporarily. Day after, Obama thanks Clinton for loyal service to country/party, two weeks later announces Florida and Michigan are to be seated at the convention after all. Awwww. Everyone is happy.
Stay on after that, and she doesn’t leave. She gets thrown under a bus publicly and very humiliatingly. There’s no way it can end with her looking good, in fact i suspect that way ends with her losing her influence and power in the Senate, not to mention any very remote chance at a future presidency tilt.
The happy ending version, Max. Maybe. It sounds good, for sure. But will she do it? One month to go. Then the limelight gets turned off. Good script, Max.
“The United States must join Israel in a preemptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God’s plan for both Israel and the West.” Hagee’s bizarre interpretation of the Bible sees war with Iran as a “biblically prophesized End Time confrontation . . . which will lead to the Rapture, Tribulation and the Second Coming.”
Desparately seeking zimmer & all pnac proxies…the race continues…
U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler and unpledged superdelegate in his first term in state congress has endorsed Clinton on the grounds that she carried his 11th Congressional district in North Carolina. This brings the gross tally back to 16 and a net value of 7.5 advantage Hillary.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
The list of major papers calling for Hillary to end it is growing by the minute.
May 7th, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Thanks GWV, it should have been obvious, but too many beers here! LOL
May 7th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Rain check
“I can’t stand him,” the man said. “He’s a Muslim. He’s not even pro-American as far as I’m concerned.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/05/07/2008-05-07_ugly_truth_why_hillary_clinton_wont_quit.html
Hey Finns remember that bus, you know the one, the one that youron, under err & now over, yeah that one, right there, lookee, lookee? Reprise? Fares, next stop?
May 7th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
1301
Ferny Grover
It’s the funeral drums Ferny, a slow and relentless tattoo, echoing across the end of the Clinton era.
It’s a mournful sound, but it’s going to turn into a dixie swing any minute!
May 7th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
So…where’s the money coming from?
If she raised over $10 million following PA and loaned over $6 million of her own cash to the NC and IN contests, it’s amost certain that all her coffers will be empty now.
So…how is she going to fund the next few campaigns? I mean, would YOU invest in her now???
May 7th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
I’d love to believe that Hillary will concede tomorrow, and if she wants to ever run again she’d better, but I cant see her doing it. The math has been against her for a while and that hasnt stopped her. I think she’ll push on. I hope I’m wrong
May 7th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Nope Andrew, I’m sure you’re right.
But then again, she is running out of money….and friends
May 7th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Sorry WB
but this is one for the dunny door
‘rage against Opposition, work as hard as you can to get out of Opposition, as soon as you can’ JWH abc online
May 7th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Codger:
“A top Democratic source with insight into Bill’s and Hillary’s states of mind says the Clintons are convinced that a Democratic presidency is all but certain no matter how messy the fight for the nomination.”
…they can’t be serious!?!?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:01 am
what needs to happen is a bunch of SDs to come out tomorrow for Obama. Hillary is going to have to be hounded out of the contest which is silly because (a) she cant win anyway and (b) she’ll never be able to run again
BTW Ron, Finns, GG have gone quiet
May 8th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Michigan Dems to consider a compromise deal giving Hillary 69 dels and Obama 59
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080507/NATION/75299968/1028/ELECTION
The Kid could afford to be generous now. But the principle stinks.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:03 am
1308
codger
Howard’s mug was plastered on the SMH website this arvo, and I nearly spewed.
That weevil, endorsing Horatio Hornet?
Well that’s it for Horatio! The kiss of bloody death if ever there was one.
Johnny freakin’ Howard? FFS, this is the 21st century!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:03 am
I guess its not the maths that makes today important, as Obama had the maths before today. Its the fact that he survived a firestorm of bad press, that was quite relentless. Very impressive indeed
May 8th, 2008 at 12:06 am
1310
Andrew
They were always quiet Andrew (as to having anything sensible to say), but they just made lots of silly noises while they were at it.
They have however, provided endless entertainment
May 8th, 2008 at 12:09 am
1311
Ferny Grover
I get the feeling this could get weirder, a lot weirder, before Hillary realises the life support has been turned off.
It’s that Terry Schiavo moment, with Hillary connected to the machine that goes ‘ping’!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:09 am
Obama’s 50/50 split for mchigan and florida is by far the fairest and most politically positive option: the delegations get to join the convention, but cannot affect the result - perfectly fair!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:11 am
KR @ 1309
Rain is right about ‘theft’ they do ‘own’ ‘it’…but today’s turnout & #’s render the mythematics into a well glazed pair of dog* balls swinging in the breeze just under the Super’s noses…
Will they just sniff or whack?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:13 am
Clinton will hang on til the bitter end. She has the right to do so and will not relent. A lot of people will admire her for it and in the end she will stump for Obama. People will admire that even more.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:17 am
CNN is being incredibly annoying. “Dems split victories” the headline. Are rightly receiving a bollocking from bloggers
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/07/analysis-as-obama-nears-finish-line-can-clinton-rebound-in-time/
May 8th, 2008 at 12:19 am
“Will they just sniff or whack?”
Depends on their familiarity with the m.o. of contemporary W.A. opposition leaders, codger.
Been one of the grandest days in Sep political junkiedom for quite a while, probably Super Tuesday. Thanks for the craic, all. Sleep tight.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:19 am
Point blindoptimist; perhaps lick? Then…probe, then aliens then…
May 8th, 2008 at 12:25 am
Stop Press:
I’ve seen the future, and I’m telling you, it IS NOT pretty:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/business/07fannie.html?ref=business
A quick decipher:
The two biggest players in the US mortgage business, now that the banks are off licking their wounds, are extending themselves over a cliff.
A huge freakin’ cliff. A five trillion dollar cliff, and they are hanging on a few billions of dollars in rope.
Sweet jesuz, kiss your children and start prayin’.
It is a very long, long way, down.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:26 am
codge, i’m an obamaphile. and i’ve never had good feelings about clinton. but i’m starting to respect her tenacity. in the end, she cannot win the nomination, but she can make herself into a formidable voice for the democratic party in november. i’m starting to warm to the idea of the contest running to its historic, ineluctable conclusion.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:33 am
blindoptimist at 1323
I agree - I don’t think we will see a concession tomorrow - if fact I figure that the next major event in that committee meeting later this month. I’m working on some numbers to see just how desperate this is - and the potential role of John Edwards’ gang of 19.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:38 am
blindoptimist, don’t disagree with you but she hasn’t yet on that front is my point; she may well surprise me…we’ll see…
& you do recall I’m from the three choice no choice camp (hey it’s lonely in here!), more cynical than Dio, tis possible…
May 8th, 2008 at 12:41 am
KR, the housing market is still contracting and is forecast to remain on a declining trajectory for at least the rest of 2008, so you’re right to be worried about Fannie & Freddie. But they are the only reliable buyer in the mortage market at present, so it would be a disaster if they were to retract. It would certainly provoke even more trouble in the glutted housing sector.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:42 am
cmon bludgers
you’re just enjoying the spectacle too much
this is about beating the Repugs badly come Nov.
she should go now..as it is now clearly over..and endorse Obama. she can then campaign for Obama or quietly slip back to the Senate.
this is what she should do if she cared about the Party.
however, the reality is Billary are just like Lie-berman.
the Party is just their vehicle.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:46 am
your cynicism and my blindoptimism….like pepper on tomatoes….too much pepper will make the dish inedible, no matter the sweetness of the fruit…
May 8th, 2008 at 12:49 am
imho, one of the huge advantages this year is running against a 72yo who is looking frailer by the month.
the Dems are wasting time. tire the old bastard out and make it plain to the electorate how old and incapable of running the country he is.
Maxine and K Rudd did it beautifully to JWH.
cmon start putting the blowtorch to him. he sounds bloody terrible when he talks.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:51 am
1326
blindoptimist
And they are both bleeding money at the moment. Losses are piling up, they refuse to re-capitalise because it would further dilute shareholder’s stakes, and Congress cannot force them.
This is where the rubber hits the road between the public good and the private sef-enrichment.
But anyone who has seen the dodgey ‘bookkeeping’ and the shady practices from these two institutions over the years will not be assured that the US mortgage market is in ’safe hands’.
In fact, it’s almost certain to go belly up, and the US taxpayers will be left indentured, or at least will be selling their children into Chinese fuedal servitude.
From slave owners to slaves in a couple of centuries: the history of the United States of America.
A victory of ‘dumbocracy’?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:51 am
I tend to agree that we won’t see a concession tomorrow.
I have a date for you to all mark in though: May 20. The day Obama wins the pledged delegate count.
There’s a handy meter on his site which has been referred to before - it currently states that he needs 34 delegates to secure a majority of pledged delegates. He’ll get a dozen or so from West Virginia next week, and on May 20 there are two primaries with more than enough delegates between them for him to take the magic number.
That speech is going to be dynamic, and the follow on from that swift and brutal. Half - sorry, probably close to 3/4 or more - of the general public don’t understand the delegate system, but put it into nice simple phrases for them - I have a majority - and they tend to get the gist.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if a dozen or so SD’s came out in the day or two after that and said ‘I am endorsing Obama because he has won.’ Perfect reasoning, especially for those who don’t want to annoy the Clinton’s until they can possibly help it. He will be perceived as ‘the winner.’
At that point, Clinton officially takes the Huckabee route. Obama will start talking about her ‘democratic right to see out the race.’ Everything becomes a formality from then. Clinton thus has one of two choices: concede on June 3 or get publicly humiliated in the week or two after, as the SD’s are given no choice but to stand behind their nominee.
That’s how I see the end game unfolding. Plausible?
May 8th, 2008 at 12:52 am
1328
blindoptimist
too much pepper on tomatoes?
No such thing!
Pepper and jalapennos!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:53 am
Amount of money (AUD) bet on each Dem Nom on betfair.
Total pool: $6.323 million
Obama $3.260 million
Clinton $2.766 million
In parentheses -
Gore $211 K (never nominated)
Edwards $62 K (withdrew)
May 8th, 2008 at 12:53 am
1329
HarryH
I dunno HH, he kind of has a nice old weezy sound, like a comfortabe old chair! LOL
May 8th, 2008 at 12:56 am
Max at 1331
Very plausible - been thinking all the same lines myself.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:56 am
1331
Max
Nothing is predictable here Max.
We are dealing with the Clintons, after all!
May 8th, 2008 at 12:58 am
imagine his nice old weezy sound after 5 months of non stop campaigning in 35 states.
he’ll be looking and sounding like old father time.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:12 am
he’ll be looking and sounding like old father time. With a PNAC script modified for the Moment.
tic toc……………………………………………………….100 years…
p*x americana………………………………………………lunchtime
I think Finns did this better. More better.
BTW KR I think you owe me $20? Remember?
May 8th, 2008 at 1:18 am
1331….It’s certainly possible, Max. But why would she concede? She’s been losing for months: it hasn’t been enough to force her out. I think she will make the party go through the whole process. Obama will win and she will be defeated. But she will be unbowed. She is proud of who she is and what she’s trying to do. She won’t just stop because it seems like the convenient thing to do.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:20 am
KR, I think you are tending towards alarmism…but I am an optimist…
May 8th, 2008 at 1:27 am
Stuff the alarmist, I’m just (valiantly!) trying to keep KR ronest. Trooly rooly.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:30 am
not ronest….surely we have had enough ronisms..
May 8th, 2008 at 1:31 am
any news on the SD stakes, catrina?
May 8th, 2008 at 1:40 am
blindoptimist at 1343
Nothing - the silence is ‘interesting’.
The roumors are that the Obama campaign are holding back announcements with the notion of announcements corresponding to inevitable good press days for Hilllary in the next couple of weeks - simply because the media for the moment is totally pre-occupied on the ‘Hillary cannot win’ breaking scenario.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:41 am
Ah blindoptimist @ 1342 pracrice practice & then more practice, for that inelucatable moment, non?
May 8th, 2008 at 1:49 am
lol, codge/ cdoge
May 8th, 2008 at 1:49 am
blind optimist at 1339.
I know what you are saying. But I think the game changes completely after June 3. As it stands, party leaders don’t really have the authority or mandate to step in and finish this race publicly. The system is, to put it simply, designed to ensure all states have their say. To step in now would quite rightly piss off a lot of people - they can’t interfere with their own nominating system.
Come June 3, it’s much easier to argue they now have a responsibility to make their intention clear. The public has voted. Theoretically, nothing is going to change in the next two months before the convention. The argument they need ‘more time’ becomes ridiculous. Public pressure will - IMO - ensure most of them come out of their closets.
Why would she concede June 3? Because she can do it with the speech ‘I’m proud I fought for my supporters until the very end, but it’s time to concede now that while we’ve fought the good race, we ultimately came second. Hence, I now formally endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic Nomination of the United States, and release my delegates, urging them to vote for him this August.’
Wounds immediately start to heal. Country breathes sigh of relief. Democrats return to loving Bill Clinton, and respecting his talented wife. Media portrays Hillary as truly noble, and mourns the fact she will never be president, albeit very temporarily. Day after, Obama thanks Clinton for loyal service to country/party, two weeks later announces Florida and Michigan are to be seated at the convention after all. Awwww. Everyone is happy.
Stay on after that, and she doesn’t leave. She gets thrown under a bus publicly and very humiliatingly. There’s no way it can end with her looking good, in fact i suspect that way ends with her losing her influence and power in the Senate, not to mention any very remote chance at a future presidency tilt.
Just my thoughts.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:52 am
Catrina, you often seem to blog at night. Shift working? or Overseas?
May 8th, 2008 at 1:53 am
Long time Clinton supporter George McGovern defecting to the Obama camp.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/07/america/McGovern-Clinton.php
No - he’s not a superdelegate.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:54 am
blindoptimist at 1348
Self employed!
May 8th, 2008 at 1:55 am
The happy ending version, Max. Maybe. It sounds good, for sure. But will she do it? One month to go. Then the limelight gets turned off. Good script, Max.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:56 am
I know the feeling, Catrina, me too. But I do sleep occasionally.
May 8th, 2008 at 1:56 am
Meanwhile the next bus pulls out onto the highway, pay attention here or miss the next gate at your peril…
http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3263.shtml
Taster
“The United States must join Israel in a preemptive military strike against Iran to fulfill God’s plan for both Israel and the West.” Hagee’s bizarre interpretation of the Bible sees war with Iran as a “biblically prophesized End Time confrontation . . . which will lead to the Rapture, Tribulation and the Second Coming.”
Desparately seeking zimmer & all pnac proxies…the race continues…
May 8th, 2008 at 1:57 am
codger, you’ll give me nightmares.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:03 am
speaking of which, it’s time to hit the sack…’night y’all
May 8th, 2008 at 2:07 am
Not at all sleep well. Is that window locked, just asking…
May 8th, 2008 at 2:56 am
U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler and unpledged superdelegate in his first term in state congress has endorsed Clinton on the grounds that she carried his 11th Congressional district in North Carolina. This brings the gross tally back to 16 and a net value of 7.5 advantage Hillary.
May 8th, 2008 at 2:59 am
Hillary is in DC now for afternoon meetings with a bunch of undeclared supers, and Obama will be there much of the day Thursday doing the same.
May 8th, 2008 at 3:48 am
New thread up. Fresh start please - no carrying over of boring arguments from this thread.