Mar 15 2008
Brisbane City Council election live
Antony Green is live-blogging the Brisbane City Council election count (first results should come through in about 30 minutes), so rather than set up in competition with him, I think it’s best if we all head over there.
UPDATE: Feel free though to use this thread to discuss the results if you’re finding Antony’s multiple posts problematic.
UPDATE 2: You can also feel free to discuss councils other than Brisbane.
UPDATE 3: Looks like I can’t help myself. Live blogging follows below:
7.30pm Brisbane time: ABC computer now predicting a huge win for Campbell Newman plus a Liberal majority on council, though Antony still expressing caution about the latter.
7.40pm: Although it seems Ross Vasta’s bid for Wynnum-Manly has failed with a vengeance.
8.05pm: The Liberals needed a notional gain of three seats to win the council. As I see it, they have won Marchant and Holland Park. Parkinson, Enoggera, Doboy, Central and Northgate are all in play (perhaps also Jamboree, where counting proceeds at a snail’s pace), but the Liberals only lead in the first two. I suspect Labor will pull further ahead in Central as more figures come in.
8.35pm: Further figures have moved Holland Park back to the doubtful column, but the Liberals are now home in Parkinson. So the Liberals still need to bag one more doubtful ward. Holland Park is the only one where they are ahead - they are slightly behind in Enoggera, Doboy and Northgate. Labor pulling further ahead in Central, but Greens preferences are a possible wild card here.
8.47pm: Antony Green says Jamboree is now in the Liberal gain column, but the ABC computer figures are lagging badly here. The ECQ shows a Liberal 54.25-45.75 lead on two-party preferred with 44 per cent counted, which sounds pretty convincing. So you could almost call it for a Liberal majority at this point.
8:54pm: More figures in at ABC, and the Liberals have recovered their earlier handsome lead in Holland Park, probably putting any doubts about their majority to rest.
9.04pm: Antony, who has more up to date figures, suggests the four Liberal gains are all holding firm and they are only slightly behind in Enoggera. Doboy still looks in doubt to me, but maybe Antony knows something I don’t.
March 16th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
97
Gary, I’m willing to wager that a snide remark will be made in some way this week in parliament from either side.
Loser to mail William $50…I’m game.
March 16th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
101 Ogmios - I’m not suggesting it won’t come up at all, as in a snide remark. I’m suggesting it will not be the main focus of a question. Are you? Big difference.
March 16th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Gary…I do not believe it will be the focus of a question at all.
So bets off…I’ll still sending William the money though…haven’t contributed for months.
March 16th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Joe Hockey is already out of the starting block claiming Newman’s win demonstrates a Lib revival:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/16/2190687.htm?WT.mc_id=newsmail
As Graham Young says, this is “baloney”:
http://qlddecides.com/Latest/Newman-s-victory-one-for-Campbell.html
Collingwoodlegend at 88, the “Livermore will be in trouble” story started in the Crikey guide to the election - apparently based on a view that coal miners wouldn’t like Labor’s climate change stance and some spin from someone or other that she wasn’t a good local member or campaigner. It then spread throughout the punditariat, and was being mentioned in the campaign itself. I got through to the Crikey folks to tell them it was almost certainly wrong - but once something like that takes off among Canberra based commentators who probably never go anywhere near Brisbane let alone Rocky, it stuck.
It’s an interesting case study in itself of how MSM political “analysis” works.
I should add that I really appreciated the fact that Charles Richardson from Crikey took the time to actually come up here and travel round all the marginals talking to folks in order to inform his writing on the election, rather than sitting in Canberra, Sydney or Melbourne pontificating as too many “insiders” do. So good on him.
March 16th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Would one of the brilliant psephologists here please explain to me the acronym OO ? I imagine it is the old GG?
Cheers everyone
March 16th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Opposition Organ, I believe!
March 16th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Opposition Orifice would be better.
March 16th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
While were at it can some one explain the acronym MSM as well ?
March 16th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
MSM = Main Stream Media
March 16th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Thanks Mark, sounds apt.
March 16th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
There’s little connection between the BCC election and the state of the Liberal Party - Brisbane politics doesn’t necessarily have much connection with national or state politics. Brisbane politics seems to me to be quite pragmatic and has, since Soorley was Lord Mayor, been about the person and “their team” more than the Liberal/Labor brand.
March 16th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
It’s a bit hard to claim the BCC election is a Liberal revivial when Newman’s campaign id everything it could to hide the Liberal brand during the campaign. This result is Newman’s - with some major contribution from an inept ALP.
March 16th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
So will Drew Hutton now FINALLY stand aside and let others in the Greens undertake their perennial tour of duty as a candidate hog?
March 16th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Thanks Darryl.
March 16th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Was Brisbane a case of Labor not coming to terms with fact they had lost the last election and behaving like a govt in exile? If you look at Labor’s recovery from the early 1990s wipeouts it seems that a bad loss can be recovered from quicker than a narrow one.
March 16th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Good thought Geoff.
Labor seemed to hold the view that they were beaten last time because Newman was easier to market than Tim Quinn. The fact that they maintained a strong majority in the chamber led them to believe that they still had the confidence of the electorate - and so they did little to examine why they lost the Lord Mayoralty.
Big mistake. But as you say, the large thumping this time may lead them to do some serious work on regaining the confidence of the voters in 4 years.
March 16th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
re BrissyRod @113
Drew may be a perennial candidate but he didn’t run for Mayor this time (he ran in The Gabba, encompassing parts of the old Dutton Park & East Brisbane), The Mayoral vote grew for the Greens this time around.
I did notice was the exhaust rate for Green candidates - seemed to be about 65%. Were there no direction of preferences? And while the ALP lost considerable ground the Greens maintained their vote across Brisbane and even ran in areas they’ve not covered before. However, the Green vote seemed to be decreasing in the northern suburbs, increasing in central & south-eastern Brisbane, and static in the west.
March 16th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
It’s quite obvious to me. The electorate clearly didn’t want Labor to be in power everywhere in Australia. Wall to wall Labor and all that.
John Howard and Dennis Shanahan got it right this critically important election for all Australians.
March 16th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
yes OO is the Opposition Orifice, the only functioning part of the Liberal party at the moment.
I don’t think people see council elections in terms of left or right politics or do they draw any connection between candidates and one party or another. The only issue of late [considering the laughable state of the Libs and Nats in Qld of late] that may have made some consider delivering an anti-ALP vote was the emotive council amalgamations issue. I guess people riled by that were more likely to get and vote.
March 16th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
I am glad that William has drawn the line at Council elections because I fail to see the significance or ideology of sewage, drainage and curb & guttering. Maybe some of you can enlighten me what it means for labour or liberal managerial determination of the biggest council in Australia?
What ideological underpinning is there for the running of a local office that sub contracts out many services. Is there a train of thought that gives precedent to certain ideals. ? I would of thought that council control of services was based on intimate knowledge of voter prejudices rather than federal prerogative.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:31 am
BCC doesn’t subcontract out services, which is the whole point I was making earlier about the danger of the Libs actually acting according to their ideology - re the earlier comment about the consultants report Newman received in his first term recommending the privatisation of everything.
BCC has over 7000 employees and is responsible within its municipal area (with a population just short of 1 million) for many things state governments do in other capital cities - major roads, most public transport, water, a lot of infrastructure, cultural facilities, etc. Surely this point has been made often enough on this thread.
The City Budget is 1.5 billion dollars.
Do we need to justify further why this election mattered?
March 17th, 2008 at 1:32 am
The Greens directed preferences in only two wards - Morningside (to the Libs) and Holland Park (to Labor). The Libs and Labor ran just vote one tickets for the Mayoralty and every ward.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:39 am
That’s a very optimistic spin.
The Greens shouldn’t have gone backwards in the Mayoral vote when there was bugger all difference between Labor and Liberal in policy. At best The Greens maintained their vote in the wards, and Drew deserves some credit for establishing a basis in the areas of the new Gabba ward where no candidate had previously been run. But none of the folks from The Greens I talked to today were feeling chipper.
Basically, The Greens failed to gain any new votes, except where they hadn’t run before, and went a little backwards if you take into account areas where there had been Greens running in the past and across the city for the Mayoral race. Static is probably about the most favourable description for their performance, sadly.
That’s spot on, Geoff, except they weren’t even in exile. As I’ve observed earlier in the thread, they still held a majority of spots in Civic Cabinet. So they were in effect in an uneasy and unstable coalition with Newman. They should have withdrawn at least two years ago, given up the Ministerial style salaries, and acted like an opposition. Then they might have had a shot of winning. Short term power trumped electoral sense.
Sacha, you forget how strongly Soorley spoke out on many social issues (such as Indigenous reconciliation) which had little to do with his actual responsibilities. He certainly did a fair bit towards branding himself as Labor - and left Labor at that.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:43 am
A four to one spending spree.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/03/16/1205602177880.html
March 17th, 2008 at 9:44 am
The complete lack of any real campaign by Labor still puzzles the hell out of me. Who was managing it - and are they still employed today?
March 17th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
125 - The campaign director is/was Anthony Chisholm. Yes, he is still employed.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
BrissyRod
Why?
March 17th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
No one should blame Athony Chislom for the Labor debacle, if blame has to placed it should be with Milton Dick and David Hinchcliffe for not having the ticker to run for mayor.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Collingwood - I’m more than happy to see the blame shared. So long as it comes to rest where it should - and that changes are made
March 17th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
“No one should blame Athony Chislom for the Labor debacle, if blame has to placed it should be with Milton Dick and David Hinchcliffe for not having the ticker to run for mayor.”
Peter Brent (Mumble) says the Party leader is always blamed for a loss, and the Campaign Manager always gets credit for a win. :^)
But seriously, given the shocking state of the ALP campaign and the size of the swings against both Hinchcliffe and Dick, it’s hard to see how either of those two could have made any difference at all. In fact, if Hinchcliffe hadn’t been the sitting councillor, Central would be safely Liberal.
d
March 17th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
I think Milton should be blamed for the campaign and for Greg Rowel. I think Hinchcliffe should have run for Mayor, it takes a truely remarkable person to win the mayoralty without council experience, a Jim Soorely or a Campbell Newman. A political novice like Rowell, who was constantly undermined by the ALP coucillors during the campaign had no chance.
Credit to Rowell for having a go condemnation to Milton Dick for sending him ‘over the top’, to be slaughtered.
March 17th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
I agree completely Collingwood. Rowell was totally out of his depth and shouldn’t have been there. Dick lived up to his name with that decision. As for being undermined by councillors - he was certainly undermined by the Enoggera candidate’s letter to the residents that arrived 2 days before the election. If anything sealed my vote for the Greens (and I’m a rusted-on Labor voter) it was that letter. It was disgraceful.
As for Dick, he looks like surviving the biggest swing against Labor in the city. Which probably means he won’t learn much.
I want to see Labor return to power in Brisbane (and I want to be able to vote for them next time) so here’s some pointers:
1. Be a positive Opposition. Put forward positive policies that present a plan for a sustainable and liveable city into the future.
2. Emphasise improving public transport and weaning us off our reliance on cars.
3. Beware conflicts of interest. Receiving donations from developers is not a good look.
4. Choose your mayoral candidate by mid-term. Find someone with clear local government (or other relevant management experience), good people and media skills (and give them some training in this!) and give her/him 2 years to market themselves to the community. 10 months is not enough time!
March 17th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
re Mark @123
Well, I’ve said before that i DO have political leanings…
But that said, I worked from the ABC website and noted the shift in votes across Brisbane with a small but perceptible improvement in the overall vote. Yes, they went backwards in some wards - I wont venture an opinion as to why as I don’t know the areas at all well, but question whether it should be seen as a general trend or related more to the individual candidates, policies and activities in each ward. I have long held that the Greens aren’t about to make spectacular breakthroughs (Cunningham notwithstanding) but will improve steadily over time, perhaps with a contraction in some areas (especially in Lib held seats as people consider the Greens as a broadly based party that just the environment - hence the loss of votes across north Sydney at the last Federal election).
Perhaps more importantly is that they are running in areas not covered before, are getting reasonable 3rd party/independent votes (9-11%) in a number of seats (particularly in the south of the city) and could potentially influence future election outcomes.
So, optimistic spin? Maybe, but it also depends on your expectations.
re Zedder @ 121
There is a lot more to Council than roads, rates and rubbish these days. The political and ideological motivations of Councillors does influence there attitude to planning (whether development, transport responses or urban open space), and has strong implications for attitude to Council provded community services such as Libraries, childcare housing support, bicycle provision etc.
And then there is question of party cultures in this - consider the very real negative influences of political party donations in the administration of cities like Wollongong and Liverpool, and their potentially corrupting influence.
March 17th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Does anyone have any historical data on the percentage of voters who choose to go full preferential in Qld, rather than optional?
March 17th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
134 The Queensland Electoral Commission website will tell you the number of votes that exhausted, Basil.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/groupIndex.html
March 17th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Thanks Steve
March 17th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
State elections are boring enough - but city council elections are more boring than the proverbial batsh-t. Personally, I couldn’t care less which party will decide the colour of bin lids in Brisbane City.
Lucky we’re not in America, otherwise we’d have to put up with threads with even more boring races than council elections - eg. the primary elections for the Ada County dog catcher…
March 17th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Piss off, John.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
If its so boring how did he get all the way to the bottom of the thread?
March 17th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
He “had to put up with it”, apparently. He’s banned now.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Gulp.
March 18th, 2008 at 8:54 am
Keep up the good work William.
Without sites like yours all us political tragics would have nowhere to go.
March 18th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Ferny Grover @ 132 - some excellent points. I hope they are not wasted on the Labor hierarchy.
March 18th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
BrissyRod - Of course they’re wasted on the Labor heirarchy.
But we can only try!
March 18th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
A mayoral candidate needs to paint a picture ….. a vision of what may need to be done. With Newman it was tunnels. Poor Greg Rowell had nothing to offer & his council team ran a mile. Where to from here & will lessons be learned by Labor??
March 18th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
The QEC has defended itself against criticism from the Local Government Association about the running of the ballot on Saturday.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/electoral-commission-rejects-poll-stuffup-claims/2008/03/18/1205602359447.html
March 19th, 2008 at 6:45 am
145 [Where to from here & will lessons be learned by Labor??]
From here it is on to the next state election and lessons will have to be learned from this dog of a campaign that was run here. Put this one down to another confirmation of the ‘disunity is death’ theory. If Labor doesn’t have all it’s parts working towards a win, they lose badly every time. Too many just put in no effort and reaped the rewards of their inaction.
Similarly the Liberals on the Gold Coast found that truckloads of money will not overcome a disjointed and nasty campaign.
March 19th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Anthony Chisholm MUST take a proportion of the blame for the disasterous campaign waged by the ALP. Civic Caucus, of course, must take the other part of ‘the blame’ too.
So why Chisholm? As I have said before ‘you cant take the position (campaign director) if you can’t take the responsibility that goes with it’. Of course, Milton Dick should share some of that blame with his good friend Anthony.
March 19th, 2008 at 10:07 am
I should add one more pointer to my list at 132:
5. Stop dumping candidates on us whose only life experience has been working as a Labor staffer. Give us people to vote for who have contributed something to the community (and I don’t mean those who joined some local community group because they were a candidate and needed to show some ‘community involvement’ on their CV).
March 19th, 2008 at 10:17 am
BrissyRod @ 148
There’s more than enough blame to go around. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more lacklustre and disorganised campaign in my life. Of course Chisolm should shoulder the responsibility - as should Dick, Hinchliffe, the entire campaign committee and probably most of the counsellors who were so focussed on tripping up the Lord Mayor that they failed to come up with any kind of vision or plan for Brisbane’s future. They failed our trust and consequently lost it.
It won’t be easily regained and Labor must not make the mistake of thinking that they simply have to wait till Newman fails. They need to present a credible alternative.
March 19th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Ferny Grover - I agree totally.
There was NO plan - which was reflective of the lack of a strategy of how Labor was going to deal with being in a majority with a hostile Lord Mayor.
I know Labor supporters were very angry last Saturday. They saw that Labor had not campaigned and ‘rewarded’ the ALP with its worst City result in 20 years. To see solid Labor booths in my own area swing heavily to the Liberals is indicative of this.
March 19th, 2008 at 11:28 am
The Liberal Party now has 16 seats and the ALP has 10 seats in the Brisbane City Council Chamber. This is one of the worst ALP results in a Brisbane City Council election since the late 1980s. I was very surprised on Saturday night, that the Liberal Party got a large swing in the ALP heartland of Brisbane.
March 19th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Yep, it’s a sad thing when you want to vote for a party but you genuinely can’t with a clear conscience.
Many Labor voters felt that way last Saturday. For gods sake Labor, next time mount a credible argument (this time you mounted no argument at all!), and back it up with candidates that we can have confidence will represent our communities. The candidate in Enoggera didnt even live in the ward! For a range of reasons he was found wanting - and consequently threw away a huge margin.
So now we have to put up with some Liberal kid with a seriously bad haircut who is just out of school and knows nothing about local government.
Well done Labor.
March 20th, 2008 at 1:14 am
I for one am glad we have someone who is a bit younger and energetic to actually get something done. Better than Bennison who just dances to her own tune and better than some career politician with no real job experience apart from Labor staffing.
Given he has lived in the area his whole life I’d hazard a guess he knows a lot more about the needs of Enoggera than Dart.
Nice one Labor. Epic fail.
March 20th, 2008 at 9:20 am
This is an amazing result for the Liberal Party. The last time the Liberal Party got a large swing in Queensland, was of course in the 1996 Federal Election, when the Liberal Party/National Party won every single seat in Queensland except Brisbane and Rankin. There is definately a groundswell and anger going against the Bligh Government.
March 20th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Neville T, if you think this will translate into a good result for the libs in the state election I think you could ‘write your own ticket’ with any bookie about the Libs beating Bligh, so go on get on, or maybe your just talking thru your hat?
March 20th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Neville,
Aussies have a wonderful ability to tell the difference between Commonwealth, State and Local governments. They can quite happily vote one way in a federal election and within weeks vote for the other side in a state or local council election. The candidates, policies and issues are entirely different and the electorate is well aware of this.
Which means that the BCC election tells us precisely nothing about the mood towards the Bligh government. The demise of the Labor state government has been loudly predicted by many loud voices at every election for the past 10 years. The result is invariably a thrashing of the Coalition.
Here’s a bold prediction - Labor will remain in power until the Libs become the dominant partner in the state coalition. Why? Because the great southeast (where most of the population lives) will not stomach a National Party premier ever again (and no, a new amalgamated conservative party headed by old Nats will not change a thing. It will, in all likelihood, cost them votes as rusted on Lib and Nat voters feel their side has ’sold out’ by any merger and cast their votes elsewhere. Watch for the rise of conservative independents if this happens).
So….I’d suggest you grow to like Anna. She may be around a while.
March 20th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
I think the only real message from the BCC election is weak pathetic oponents will be crushed!
It is hard to imagine the liberal party in Queensland being anything other than weak pathetic and lets through in self obessed for good message!
March 24th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
More test
:’( :-s {:-o {:-o {:-o x-P <:o)
March 24th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
March 24th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
:’-) |-O :@ `:-)
O:-) :-X :-K
March 25th, 2008 at 11:00 am
It is a bit sad that my home city of Brisbane, is now in full control by the Liberal Party. How could Brisbane voters give the Liberal Party the council and the mayor at the same election? Giving the Liberal Party full control of Brisbane is just as bad as giving Howard full control of the Senate. David Hinchcliffe was doing a wonderful job, shame on you Brisbane.