Mar 11 2008
Viva Brisvegas
Local government is where this website normally draws the line, but there is one exception: Brisbane City Council, an entity unique in Australia in that it covers most of the metropolitan area and controls services such as public transport and water. Most importantly, its elections are rigidly partisan affairs which a psephologist can make sense of even without a local’s understanding of the issues and personalities. The election to be held on Saturday is of special interest because, as is so often related, the Brisbane lord mayoralty is the highest office in the land still held by a Liberal. Campbell Newman came to the position at the 2004 election after defeating Labor incumbent Tim Quinn, who had succeeded 12-year veteran Jim Soorley upon his retirement a year earlier. Soorley was preceded in turn by Sallyanne Atkinson, the only Liberal lord mayor prior to Newman, whom Soorley defeated in 1991. Labor’s candidate this time is Greg Rowell, a Property Council of Australia policy adviser and former state cricketer who was not a member of the party when it head-hunted him last May.
Of equal interest is the election for 26 ward councillors, who continue to be elected through a single-member electorate system that freezes out minor parties and independents even more effectively than the federal and state lower houses. Remarkably, Labor was able to win 17 of these wards at the 2004 election despite losing the lord mayoralty, the remaining nine going to the Liberals. This was caused not by vote-splitting among tactically minded Brisbane voters, but by a natural gerrymander which leaves Liberal votes locked up in very safe wards in the west of the city. Labor in fact scored 48.4 per cent of the total two-party preferred ward vote, only slightly better than Tim Quinn’s 47.5 per cent for the lord mayoralty. The split outcome has produced a curious division of official roles, with Labor holding six of the eight positions on the “civic cabinet”. The two Liberals are the lord mayor and his deputy, Wishart ward councillor Graham Quirk. The title of Opposition Leader is held by a Liberal, Jane Prentice.
A poll conducted by Galaxy and published in the Courier-Mail the Sunday before last showed Campbell Newman set for a landslide re-election with a primary vote of 59 per cent to Rowell’s 30 per cent, translating into 63-37 on two-party preferred. However, a separate question on ward voting intention had the gap at a mere 52-48. I personally find a disparity of this size very hard to believe, and point to the fact that polls of Senate voting intention greatly exaggerate the level of split voting. I suspect the poll has picked up a real sentiment that Labor does not need to be given yet more power along with general satisfaction with Newman, and that this will translate into a strong Liberal performance on the wards as well as the mayoralty. UPDATE: A dissenting view from Brisbane local Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo.
The Liberals have further been assisted in this regard by last year’s redistribution, which went some way to redressing the imbalance by abolishing five Labor-held wards (East Brisbane, Runcorn, Acacia Ridge, Grange and Dutton Park) and creating two notionally Liberal ones among the replacements. The only drawback for the Liberals is that formerly blue-ribbon Wishart has become greatly more marginal, though not to the extent it is likely to be in danger in this election. UPDATE: As Antony Green’s post-redistribution calculations make clear, the same goes for Toowong. The map below shows both new and old boundaries, the latter colour-coded in shades of red and blue to indicate Labor and Liberal margins in 2004 – you can toggle between the two by clicking on it.
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| Click on image to toggle between 2008 and 2004 ward boundaries |
I have made rough calculations of post-redistribution ward margins where it seemed worth the effort. Reflecting this roughness, I have only provided post-redistribution margins rounded to the nearest 0.5 per cent. It’s possible that a glaring error or two was made in this process, so anyone who thinks my margin estimates don’t sound right is encouraged to let me know.
MARGINAL WARDS
Tennyson (New ward: approx. Liberal 1.5%): The new ward of Tennyson has been formed from Walter Taylor’s territory south of the river, along with the south of abolished Dutton Park and parts of western Moorooka, eastern Jamboree and south-western East Brisbane. Liberal candidate Nicole Johnston faces Labor’s Stephen Gay, both of whom are newcomers.
Parkinson (New ward: approx. Labor 2.0%): The new ward of Parkinson has been formed from the the bulk of abolished Acacia Ridge, along with the south-east of Richlands. The Liberals have nominated Angela Owen-Taylor, a staffer for state MP Jann Stuckey who contested Acacia Ridge at the last three elections. Labor’s Acacia Ridge councillor, Kevin Bianchi, is retiring; their candidate for Parkinson is Linda Paton.
Karawatha (New ward: approx. Labor 2.5%): Karawatha has been created from roughly equal remnants of two abolished Labor wards, Runcorn (margin 2.2 per cent) in the north and Acacia Ridge (3.8 per cent) in the south. It will be contested for Labor by Runcorn councillor Gail McPherson, who won preselection over Left rival David Forde, a former staffer to Health Minister Stephen Robertson. The Liberal candidate is John Olive.
Marchant (Approx. Labor 2.5%): The redistribution has pushed this ward southwards, adding the northern part of abolished Grange (whose sitting Labor councillor Maureen Hayes is not contesting the election) along with a smaller area of McDowall to the west. In the north, Zillmere and eastern Aspley have been ceded to Bracken Ridge. The changes have slightly reduced Labor councillor Faith Hopkins’ 3.8 per cent margin to around 2.5 per cent. The Liberal candidate is real estate salesperson Fiona King.
Holland Park (Approx. Labor 3.0%): The redrawn ward of Holland Park takes in more voters from the abolished East Brisbane (the western remainder of which has gone to the new ward of The Gabba) than from pre-redistribution Holland Park. The exchange of strong Labor territory in the south for marginal East Brisbane has produced a margin of around 3.0 per cent compared with 5.6 per cent before the redistribution. Holland Park was held for Labor by Kerry Rea until October, when she resigned to successfully contest Bonner at the November 24 federal election. Rea’s short-term vacancy was filled by Robbie Williams, Brisbane’s first indigenous councillor, despite the fact he had been preselected for Wishart. Williams died from a heart attack on December 20, and the seat has since been left vacant. The Labor candidate was and remains Catherine Bermingham, currently councillor for East Brisbane, who settled for Holland Park after losing her preselection bid for The Gabba. The Liberals have again nominated their candidate from 2004, human resources manager Ian McKenzie.
Morningside (Approx. Labor 4.5%): Morningside has exchanged a small part of its south (to Holland Park) for a new area in the east (from Doboy), with little effect on the margin. Their incumbent councillor is Shayne Sutton, a Labor Unity player reportedly set to succeed disgraced former minister Pat Purcell in the safe seat of Bulimba at the next state election. The Liberals have nominated Melina Morgan, who ran for Greenslopes at the 2006 state election.
Doboy (Approx. Labor 5.0%): The only change to this ward has been the loss of a small area at Cannon Hill to Morningside. Incumbent John Campbell faces Liberal challenger Glen Ryan, who ran in Mansfield at the 2006 state election.
Wynnum-Manly (Labor 5.8%): Unchanged by the redistribution, Wynnum-Manly has been held for Labor since 1994 by Peter Cumming, who is again seeking re-election. Ross Vasta won the Liberal nomination ahead of rival Jeremy Knight at a preselection vote on December 12, three weeks after his defeat in Bonner at the November 24 federal election.
Northgate (Approx. Labor 6.5%): The redistribution has added a small area in the south-east of Marchant, boosting Labor’s margin by a little over 0.5 per cent by my reckoning (the Courier-Mail maintains that the margin is still 6 per cent). Incumbent Kim Flesser will contest the seat for Labor against Liberal candidate Kevin Parer. Flesser has had a few accidents in recent months: he was first exposed urging branch members to bombard Parer with phone calls about local issues to “use up his time”, and is currently the subject of a police investigation over allegations he stole Liberal election signs.
Moorooka (Approx. Labor 6.5%): Pushed south-eastwards by the creation of Tennyson and abolition of Acacia Ridge to the south, Moorooka absorbs the northern part of the latter along with a small part of western Holland Park and a tiny sliver of southern Dutton Park. The changes have had little effect on the margin. Incumbent Steve Griffiths will attempt to hold the seat for Labor from Liberal candidate Marie Jackson.
Jamboree (Approx. Labor 6.5%): Jamboree loses territory in the east to the new ward of Tennyson, along with a very small transfer to Richlands. The margin has been little changed. Incumbent Felicity Farmer will attempt to hold the seat from Liberal challenger Matthew Bourke, a butcher shop owner.
SAFE LABOR WARDS
The Gabba (New ward): The new ward of The Gabba has been formed from the northern parts of abolished East Brisbane and Dutton Park. Preselection was contested between the Labor councillors for those wards, Helen Abrahams and Catherine Bermingham, with Abrahams prevailing. Bermingham will instead contest Holland Park, vacated by newly elected federal Bonner MP Kerry Rae. The Liberal candidate is Matthew Myers.
Enoggera (Labor 9.5% on old boundaries): Labor incumbent Ann Bennison suddenly announced her decision to retire in January. This led to an acrimonious preselection stoush between the Left and Labor Unity (Right) factions, the former reportedly reneging on an informal deal by throwing their weight behind Andrew McMicking. Labor Unity’s Michael Dart, an adviser to state Treasurer Andrew Fraser, won the day by just half a vote under a weighted preselection process.
Deagon (Labor 11.0% on old boundaries): Labor incumbent Victoria Newton faces Liberal candidate Tony Feagan, a former police officer and operator of a Sandgate consultancy business.
Central (Labor 12.0% on old boundaries): Held for Labor by deputy mayor David Hinchcliffe.
Richlands (Labor 15.8% on old boundaries): Outgoing councillor Les Bryant, 68, was dumped for preselection in favour of party state secretary Milton Dick.
SAFE LIBERAL WARDS
Wishart (Approx. Liberal 6.0%): The redrawn Wishart consists in equal measure of the southern part of the old Holland Park, around Mount Gravatt and Mansfield, and the north of pre-redistribution Wishart, the south of which has gone to the new ward of Macgregor. This has dramatically cut the Liberal margin from over 15 per cent at the 2004 election, prompting deputy mayor Graham Quirk to take his business to Macgregor. The Liberal candidate for Wishart is Krista Adams, daughter of former Holland Park councillor Gail Chiconi. Adams was preselected ahead of teacher Andrea Caltabiano, wife of Michael. Labor originally preselected Robbie Williams, who became Brisbane’s first indigenous councillor when he filled the short-term vacancy created in Holland Park by Kerry Rea’s election to federal parliament, but he died of a heart attack on December 20. The nomination has now gone to his widow, Trish Williams, general manager of indigenous services association First Contact.
McDowall (Approx. Liberal 8.5%): The redistribution has boosted the Liberals out of the marginal zone in a ward they won by 4.0 per cent in 2004, adding the safe Liberal area of Bridgeman Downs from Bracken Ridge to the north. Incumbent Norm Wyndham will contest the seat for the Liberals; Labor’s candidate is Peter Eickenloff.
Macgregor (New ward: Approx. Liberal 9.0%): This new ward has been formed from the southern part of safe Liberal Wishart and the northern part of marginal Labor Runcorn. It will be contested for the Liberals by Wishart councillor Graham Quirk, the council Opposition Leader. Labor’s candidate is Jacques Develder, a manager at Westpac.
Toowong (Liberal 12.7% on old boundaries): Former lawyer Peter Matic replaced Judy Magub last May when she retired after 13 years. This occurred without a by-election under a rule allowing parties to nominate their own replacement if an election is due in less than a year. Mark Bahnisch in comments notes that the Greens like their chances here. UPDATE: Antony Green puts the post-redistribution margin at a mere 1.8 per cent, so I should probably have put this on the marginal list.
Hamilton (Liberal 16.3% on old boundaries): David McLachlan will attempt to hold the seat for the Liberals after retaining the ward for the Liberals at a 2006 by-election, polling 58.1 per cent to Labor’s 27.8 per cent and the Greens’ 14.1 per cent.
The Gap (Liberal 17.0% on old boundaries): Held for the Liberals by Geraldine Knapp.
Chandler (Liberal 17.9% on old boundaries): Won in 2004 by Michael Caltabiano, who resigned to successfully contest the Chatsworth state by-election in August 2005, only to lose the seat at the September 2006 election. The ensuing by-election for Chandler was a two-horse race between Liberal candidate Adrian Schrinner and Labor’s Dimitr Helios, which Schrinner won with 62.4 per cent of the vote.
Walter Taylor (Liberal 18.9% on old boundaries): Held for the Liberals by Jane Prentice, who became Opposition Leader when Carol Cashman retired in July last year.
Bracken Ridge (Liberal 19.2% on old boundaries): The Liberal incumbent is Amanda Cooper, who replaced the aforementioned Carol Cashman last June. The redistribution has moved the strong Liberal area of Bridgeman Downs to neighbouring McDowall.
Pullenvale (Liberal 29.0%): Unchanged by the redistribution. The Liberal councillor is former Opposition Leader Margaret de Wit.
UPDATE: Antony Green has a guide to the BCC election up and running.
March 11th, 2008 at 1:08 am
Thanks William. Can anyone comment on the federal presence during the campaign? I haven’t heard much about Rudd or anyone else campaigning there.
March 11th, 2008 at 2:45 am
There’s none!
William, the Greens like their chances in Toowong, and some talk up their chances in The Gabba and Central, but I’d say the latter two are very slim possibilities in descending order.
March 11th, 2008 at 5:35 am
TW. As a Brissie local I can say that the QLD federal pollies are staying out of this one so far. My call on the ground as I see it is that the Liberals Campbell Newman will win the Lord Mayoralty again But Labor will take the majority of the wards, The Libs might even pick up a couple ….who knows.
Its only on principle that I’m voting Labor at this election for Greg Rowells for mayor as I also think that Newman is very competent. Maybe he should run for Federal Parliament come 2010. God know their talent pool needs it.
In 2005 Labor lost the mayoralty to Newman by putting up Tim Quinn & if you put these two side by side its like putting up Grand Pa against Boy wonder …no offense to Quinn. Here in 2008 Labor has chosen an outsider to run for mayor but I believe that they could have done better if the member for Central - David Hinchcliffe should have run instead and would get a better result for Labor as he is the deputy mayor & has a high profile on local issues.
My call if I’m not getting ahead of myself is that Newman may be settling in for a long term mayoralty like Labors Clem Jones did back in the 60’s - 70’s and I reckon their will be some “hard lessons” learn t come this Sunday.
Great analysis William & I l LOVE the distribution map. Not bad for a Perth boy -
!
March 11th, 2008 at 10:48 am
William, I don’t find the disparity in Campbell’s and the Libs’ ward numbers all that surprising, for reasons I’ve explained here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/11/brisbane-votes/
March 11th, 2008 at 11:19 am
i’m not sure why voters seem to think newman is ‘capable’. i suspect that the further away you get from the cbd the better he looks. my personal list of reasons he’s an idiot include.
1) an inability to cost any projects.
2) a penchant for massive, expensive, unwieldy projects that have failed in other cities before. an example of this would be the several billion dollars worth of toll way tunnels he plans on building.
3) an obsession with turning brisbane into new york and a complete inability to understand that we live in a wide, flat river basin, which means you don’t have to cluster every single bloody service and every single main road in the middle of the cbd.
4) an indifference to public transport, which actually can reduce congestion. i suppose he’s not too different to the labor candidate in that regard but at least he’ll actually have money left to spend on public transport.
of course newman gets on tv a lot so he’s really popular, despite the fact that all his spending promises will require slashing things like public transport, maintenance etc. it also doesn’t help that the labor candidate is a ham fisted campaigner and that there are essentially no other options. it’s not like it’s that hard, give me a big advertising budget and i could make my cat lord mayor of brisbane.
March 11th, 2008 at 11:50 am
As I said on a previous thread, if elections are won on brand recognition then Newman has won this one in a canter.
Labor has run a virtual non-campaign with a candidate for mayor who has hardly been seen. By Sunday, Labor will be made loudly aware of what its supporters have told it for months - that parachuting Rowell into the candidacy was a huge mistake.
It hasn’t helped that the campaign itself has been non-existent. The whole thing has been a disgrace! When a rusted on Labor voter like me is going to vote Green this weekend, the ALP has some serious reflecting to do.
March 11th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Gam - politics is all about perception and comparison. Newman has a perception of competency (or at least not incompetency), rightly or wrongly, and that’s all that matters.
And compared to Labor’s phantom candidate ….well…there really hasn’t been anyone to compare him to has there.
March 11th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Ferny Grover, I know what mean…I live in the electorate of Tennyson and have seen next to nothing concerning the Labor candidate and wouldn’t have a clue if there is a Green candidate.
This is disappointing and it’s voting blind…like pin the tail, so to speak.
March 11th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Sure is Ogmios. I have no idea what the ALP have been thinking in this campaign. They clearly have not bothered to mount a serious campaign. You know you’re in trouble when your party has to head hunt a mayoral candidate who isn’t even a member of the party - then fails to mount a credible - or even recognisable - campaign.
As I said, it’s a complete disgrace as well as an insult to their supporters and campaign workers. To quote the late Peter Finch - “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!” I’ll be taking my vote elsewhere till they learn a few lessons about how to earn their election to local government.
They clearly have not taken this election seriously and deserve the thumping they’re going to get.
March 11th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I cant complain here at Coorparoo. In Holland Park ward Labors Catherine Bermingham is the local candidate & I have dealt with her before & have found her to be diligent & thoughtful. Come to think of it she would have made a better mayoral candidate!
March 11th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
The seat of the Gabba is looking very shaky for the ALP. The Greens Drew Hutton has door knocked almost all houses in the ward and the ALP is not popular over issues such as the Kurilpa plan and the Hale St Bridge. The Liberals are preferencing the Greens in the Gabba so Hutton has a chance. This will be te set to watch on election night!!
March 11th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Trouble is Aussieguru, none of the current Labor councillors had the cohones to take on Newman - nor did anyone else in the Party. Hence the net was cast for poor ol’ non-Labor Rowell who clearly didn’t have a clue.
Hinchliffe is their most experienced and highest profile councillor, but as they have to relinquish their ward to run for mayor, he wasn’t prepared to back himself. Like everyone else in the Labor council chamber he ducked into a foxhole screaming ‘pick the other guy!’
You’d think after losing the mayoralty last time they’d have learned not to take the Council election for granted. NUP! They didn’t take this campaign seriously at all.
So reap the whirlwind and prepare to be right royally shelacked!
March 11th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Ferny Grover, just because Labor won federally, maybe they believe they are a shoe in at council level.
If this indeed so…then they have made a grave mistake, as at civic level the issues are completely different…I’ve got no clue at all where my vote will go!
March 11th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Well Ogmios, its difficult for a dyed-in-the-wool leftie like me when the default party of choice drops the ball so badly - and so deliberately! I refuse to reward their indifference - or how else will they learn?
I’m voting Green. Besides, it’s probably not a bad place for Green pollies to get some experience at government. There’s only so much damage you can do with rates and rubbish when you’re in the Council minority.
March 11th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
The other worrying thing for Labor is that Optional Preferential applies. Many - like me - will simply vote 1 and exhaust our vote.
Shelaking
March 11th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I think I will vote Green this time too, Ferny Grover.
It will be a good learning ground and if the Greens were not so stoic on their platform and gave a bit of ground, they could emerge as the second political force nationally.
I don’t see a rosy future for the conservatives at all…which is a blight on democracy.
March 11th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Well Ogmios - in spite of the fact that the Conservatives are a blight on democracy - their future looks pretty darn rosy at City Hall this weekend.
March 11th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I have no idea what the ALP is doing. The party has no coherent urban policy and has no coherent program for anything worthwhile. It is as if its still the old rural-based AWU shearers party!!! SEQ has a regional plan that is a plan NOT to have a comprehensive public transport system by 25 years (80% of the regional transport budget is on roads)!!!
(Cities are in some ways the most complex entities that humans have ever created but in Oz its ok to let amateurs manage them.)
The State Labor Government has never challenged the Newman 1960’s (he is an army engineer!!) ‘vision’ for underground freeways, the opportunity costs of which have never been considered. (Is it the best way to spend $6billion??? I think not).
How anyone can vote for either party in Brisbane is beyond me but they will…… I will vote green and not give preferences.
Brisbane is going to be an urban mess in a decade. The costs of correcting the Lab/Lib mistakes is going to be extraordinary. Retro-fitting in cities is very costly, as Sydney demonstrates.
March 11th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Ferny Grover…it will most probably be the case…he will be the most experienced of all the conservatives to a point of being the Federal Liberal leader…LOL.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Spot-on Dingo.
There is no public transport plan…and very little that could be called an infrastructure plan. It’s all about cars, cars and more cars - plus a truck or two. It’s appalling and we need to protest loudly on Saturday.
The result of the protest will be, sadly, not a Green Council but its antithesis - a Lib Council. Perhaps, however, a decimated Labor will learn some lessons about governing responsiblywith an eye to the future. Lessons they may be allowed to put into practice one day.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Australians don’t vote governments in they vote them out. In this case Sooley was so utterly unpopular by the end of his rein of terror labour are still paying for it. as with most long serving governments he lasted because the opposition was unelectable (Howard, Bligh/Beatie). Most people don’t know nor do they care about the details. If you look passable and you haven’t damaged them lately you’ll do fine.
Newman was hamstrung on the tunnels because there has been so much opposition to bridges. Sooley did nothing, Newman has done something expensive, but given the level of aggro over traffic it’s seen as better than nothing. The costing comment is unfair. He just doesn’t have the control to be held responsible for that.
He has a profile which isn’t too negative. Labour’s only profile this term has been as spoilers.
It would be interesting if it were a liberal majority council. There would be no excuses for failure…:)
March 11th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Damian, I suspect there’s a good chance of a Lib majority Council this time.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Damian
With respect, from an urban policy perspective (as distinct from short-term political perspective) “do nothing” would be have been far preferrable …..
Obviously, addressing transport as part of a REAL, i.e. towards positive goals, vision for the city (’fighting congestion’ is a suitable vision for an engineer but is a very cramped vision for a city).
No big city has ’solved’ congestion by building more roads. But it won’t just be a failed policy it entrenches the city in the WRONG direction. No political party has presented an alternative future for the people to vote on, maybe apart from the Greens.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Am I sensing a “GREENSLIDE”?
March 11th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Hm.
I wasn’t defending the policy, I was offering my opinion of the perception.
We live in a democracy. Democracies aren’t efficient, nor do they satisfy any individual or group. They produce flawed compromises the collective can endure.
The fact is most people want to travel by personal transport, and arguing the logic of public transport hasn’t changed that to date. The really funny thing is people will often answer polls in support of busses, but put them on and you find they simply don’t use them.
Of course the busses and trains in brissy are packed these days, but only in peak hour.
Brisbane needs bridges, and freeways. It also needs trainlines and busses. Will you vote for them being built in your back yard ?
Brisbane isn’t a wide, flat river basin by the way. It’s a floodplain nestled in the foothills of a mountain range. There are going to be a lot of indignant people when the next big flood comes. Meanwhile the city would do well to limit development and decentralise state government (which I believe is planned to some extent). Brisbane’s real problem is overpopulation.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
As a resident of Northgate Ward, I don’t think that Flesser has any real reason to worry. This is ALP country, either through the working class suburbs in the area, or the increasing “Doctor’s Wives” demographic in suburbs like Nundah and Northgate.
Plus, he’s a complete and utter mongrel, and his venom-filled electoral material is a constant source of amusement to us constituents.
March 11th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Damian,
You raise so many issues …… too many to answer briefly.
One main problem in Brisbane is the lack of any community agreed future for the city. Agreed with strong community involvement and involving understood and accepted trade-offs (e.g. between transport modes, densities, heritage, rates/taxes etc). This should largely be above short-term party politics.
On the question of mode choice, don’t you think part of the “choice” is affected by the very poor quality of public transport in Brisbane, particularly the buses.
I have no idea what you mean by “overpopulation”. It is not a large city in any sense apart, maybe, from its large geographical spread.
I think many of the special characteristics of Brisbane have been lost over the past 40 years. That is because its always been run on an ad hoc basis. Decisions largely made in reaction to environmental factors and property developers. The tunnels are just another ad hoc reaction to ‘congestion’.
It’s so sad.
March 11th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
I’m finding it interesting that most of those who have made comments here are saying they will vote Green and yet none are giving the Greens a real chance of a seat. I have doorknocked most of the ward of The Gabba and many, many people are telling me they are voting Green this time. My advice - take a couple of deep breaths and re-calculate before you next pontificate. There is something of a quiet voter rebellion going on, especially in the inner suburbs.
March 11th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
There are a lot of issues all interconnected, especially when your examining how people will vote and why.
I used to live in sidinee. The city reached a point in about 1990 when the feel changed. It went, for me at least, from being an exciting place to live to being a PITA.
Brisbane hit that about 98 I think. There is a critical mass where the infrastructure and/or the culture of the city fails. Brisbane is overpopulated, not because of some statistic but because it’s not as nice to be here as it used to be. In fact if I found somewhere else I think had a future I’d move. I considered Hervey Bay but I saw the writing some years back. Even my home town, Home Hill, will eventually get devoured by the mining money up north.
Everywhere is run on an ad hoc basis because politicians have no incentive to consider long term implications, especially when selling out their charge lines thier pockets so effecitvely and the electorate vote on such short term issues.
“One main problem in Brisbane is the lack of any community agreed future for the city”
Absolutely right. What chance do you think of any agreement being reached, let along a realistic one ?
And since you mention heritage (OT sorry) my home is federation. I can’t bulldoze it although that’s exactly what the fibro clad dump needs, my land has 2 vegitation orders on it, so I can’t even chainsaw the gum tree saplings that belt my walls every storm. The easy answer is torch the lot. Lots of other people have reached that conclusion thanks to the councils ridiculous intractable position on heritage and protection. No compromise ? Ashes.
I don’t like government.
March 11th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I know you don’t usually cover local government - but I should point out that while they’re all individually small-scale contests, this year will see local elections for the entire mainland east coast, as well as the four bigger towns in the NT.
Queensland’s are obviously later this week, Darwin, Alice Springs, Palmerston and Katherine are March 29, NSW is September 13, Victoria is November 29, and there’s the ACT Legislative Assembly (which is really just a big council) on October 18.
I know individually it’s impossible for William to cover these, but maybe an open thread for people to post about the political scene in the councils they know (their own and maybe a few neighbours) and I reckon we could get quite a lot of coverage, and then maybe you could summarise what people post.
As far as the other states are concerned, Tassie and WA have elections every two years, and had them late 2007, and as far as I can tell (I don’t know for sure) SA had them in late 2006 and will have their next in 2010. But still, that’s the three biggest states plus the bulk of the NT voting. While a single council may have less interesting stories than, say, federal politics, when you add them all together there’s a lot going on under the radar.
March 11th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
28 Drew
We are on here to “pontificate” ….. Don’t take that away from us, please!!!
March 11th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Love your optimism Drew.
March 11th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
28 Probably because the Greens have not got a good track record of being winners in Queensland so far. This may well be their best chance so far to prove themselves. In the past they have always seemed content to just be in the pack and have never looked as though they seriously wanted to be at the place where the decisions are made.
March 11th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
“This was caused not by vote-splitting among tactically minded Brisbane voters, but by a natural gerrymander which leaves Liberal votes locked up in very safe wards in the west of the city.”
As an ex-Brisbanite, I don’t think this is accurate. There have been parts of Brisbane in which people generally voted Liberal in local, state and federal elections for decades and similarly for Labor, roughly balancing each other out. Each party has a “core” of 8-9 (out of 26) Council seats.
Comparing the 2004 elections results for the Mayor and Councillors is interesting - (here’s a pdf http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/bccwr/about_council/documents/twopartypref04%20bcc_1.pdf).
In the Labor held Wards, Campbell Newman did better than the Liberal Councillor candidate, while in the Liberal held Wards, the Liberal Councillors did better than Campbell Newman. In effect, the Councillors did better than their own Lord Mayoral candidate.
March 11th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
… in all the Wards.
March 11th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Hey Drew Hutton…I suspect that the green vote on Saturday will be encouraging.
However…the greens have to broaden their platform or at least propose an extended base on policy.
If that was to be achieved…then this would enhance future prospects.
March 11th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Dingo
I used the word “pontificate” because none of the comments is based on more than supposition. I am not an optimist…I have been doing this far too long. But I do know polling and I have knocked on about 12,000 doors between Coorparoo and West End. The current Newspoll has the Greens nationally on 10 per cent. The current state Galaxy poll has us on 9 per cent across the state. The current Galaxy poll on the BCC mayoral election had the Greens on 9 per cent (but I’m sure respondents had to nominate that they were going to vote Green…they were not asked this). From our experience over more than 20 years we can safely say people are more likely to vote Green at the local level that any other and the biggest votes for Greens occurs in the inner suburbs (we got 25 per cent in Dutton Park ward at the last BCC elections). My doorknocking is telling me that there is much discontent in the inner suburbs about a range of development issues - Hale Street Bridge, the NSBT, high rise development etc and they will not be the beneficiaries of any of this infrastructure - quite the reverse. Labor and Liberal are both blamed for this and that is why I say there is a quiet rebellion going on out there. It might not be enough to get me elected but it will be enough to have me in the mix at 8 o’clock on Saturday night.
March 11th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
OK Drew….I no longer admire your optimism - just your stubborn refusal to surrender. I well remember your close run in Mt Coot-tha years ago. All the best on Saturday.
As for the city council - neither party has shown the policy initiative or the competency to build a liveable city for the future. We will all be buried under cars and bitumen while those of us who would dearly love to use public transport struggle to find a reliable, functional and efficient service.
As I said….it’s a disgrace and both the Libs and ALP deserve to be severely kicked by the electorate for their neglect. It’s time for the Greens to step up - and that requires recruiting some first rate candidates.
March 11th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
There is a high noon debate at Noon Friday in City Hall auditorium. Unfortunately, I will be at work and will be unable to attend. The one before the last election was a hoot with more hecklers from both sides than there are spots on a leopard. It will be the classic political event in Brisbane this year if you get a chance to go, it won’t be easily forgotten.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/candidates-to-slug-it-out-on-election-eve/2008/03/11/1205125906708.html
March 11th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Hey,
I have followed this pretty closely and there are some very tight seats around.
I would highly suggest people tune into the Ward of Richlands on Saturday… The Libs are quietly confident that it will pick up the biggest swing there, and maybe the seat. I know the Lib candidate down there and dare I say, he would be challenging Drew for doorknocking champion.
Julia.
March 12th, 2008 at 12:16 am
Julia
i wonder what either the Libs or Labs actually offer for the future of Brisbane. Same old second rate city policies…
March 12th, 2008 at 12:39 am
“It’s time for the Greens to step up - and that requires recruiting some first rate candidates.”
They have. I’m the candidate for Morningside. :^)
d
March 12th, 2008 at 8:57 am
‘Four more years of walking through treacle’ for Gridlock Campbell.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/newman-to-win-but-not-liberals/2008/03/11/1205125906160.html
March 12th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Sorry for my rant above, it was off topic. Sometimes I get overwhelmed when the government gets it’s fingers into my life.
Anyway, no one has mentioned the absurdity of Brisbane Council. It is my belief that one of the fundamental reasons we have local government is high resolution representation. I believe that Brisbane Council is unique in Australia in that we have more voters per councillor than per state representative.
It’s always cracked me up that the greens base live as far away from nature as they can.
Policies don’t matter much, elections are all about perception. The Greens don’t win more votes because they are not as media savvy as the major parties. They keep thinking if they mount rational arguments people will vote for them. They are getting better at it, but still lag.
March 12th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Damian, being able to rake in a motza of donations helps with marketing too. The Greens just don’t figure on too many people’s donation lists because they have no chance of ever being in control of a government. So it makes it tough to get a good message out there when you have no money to spend on promoting the message. Anyone can be media savvy when you can employ a media/marketing company to do the work for you.
What the Greens need is a beach head to build from. That may mean a seat in Council. Once there they can build credibility. Until they do that it’s hard to shake off the bridesmaid tag.
And that leaves us with the Lib/Lab demolition team in charge of our ‘liveable city’.
March 12th, 2008 at 11:46 am
42 Darryl - good to see a healthy self-confidence. Now tell me you’re going to WIN! And say it like you MEAN it!
March 12th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I honestly think that Greens are being a bit over-optimistic when they say they may win some seats. I say that as someone who is probably going to be voting for Jo Bragg come Saturday.
I think the Greens might do *well*, even coming second in a couple of wards, but I will be very surprised if they actually manage to win one.
Are any other of the “major minor” parties (Dems, FFP, etc) running any candidates at all? My ward only has three candidates, which I presume are Lib/Lab/Green, which is a bit of a disappointing range of choices really.
March 12th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Maybe they can get discounted rates through Greenpeace. Don’t they have all the best PR people on the payroll ?
Your right of course, but it doesn’t address the optimism/hope ? expressed above. Ok they can’t afford the spin doctors the ALP/Libs have. Doesn’t change the fact they haven’t built the profile and electorate perception the others have. And the majors suffer it also. Howard was in power because the ALP was unelectable, Keating won because Hewson made himself unelectable. etc…
Nothing to do with policies. Look at Beatie, spent 10 years or whatever it was totally ruining the state but a combination of fabulous spin and an unelectable opposition kept him there. Few people in Australia’s history are more hated than Keating, but he won an election because the opposition looked like axe murderers. Bob Carr never once answered a question while premier. Seriously, look at the old footage. Bailed when he saw the ocean comming over the deckrails. Bruce Flegg, my state member, is said around town to be a decent bloke, but he’s absolutely hopeless with the media, and probably also with managing a pool of sharks.
I don’t know if you watch newstopia, but they did a wonderful sketch last year where they had a “typical constiuent”. They asked him if he’d undergo a sex change, then back etc etc, his answer was always “will it affect my mortgage?”, no, “ok”…:)
Seriously, wrap it in shiny paper and make it look less painful than the alternative and the electorate will buy anything
You can’t fight perception with substance.
Cynical
March 12th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Well this is purely subjective but I was just in Brisbane briefly last week and I was surprised how low key the whole election thing was. Several peopel I asked couldn’t even name the Labor mayoral candidate. To me, that means not much will change, hence Newman will win again. But I admit I only spoke to a few people, so who knows.
March 12th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Damian,
Is it still true that the BCC has a larger annual budget than Tasmania? Or is that an urban legend?
I agree with your comments on Brisbane’s size, although I don’t think it is necessarily a bad thing. In Adelaide there are several Councils I’d cheerfully cull. Still, the Australian system of government is not too great at accomodating change in numbers over time, viz the Senate, where 300,000 Canberrans get two senators while 450000 tasmanians get 12. It just goes to show why pork is popular in Tasmania - you get great “bang for your buck” or should I say, senate votes per promise.
March 12th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Cross-commented at LP:
Ok, just putting it out there but here are my picks:
LIB
Tennyson: Could be very close. Interesting Stephen Gay is running for the ALP. He was responsible for the infamous defection of a bunch of AWU peeps over to the Queensland Left of the ALP back in 98. Not sure how much ALP HQ love there is for him. Will be a very close contest but I’m picking Nicole (the Lib) here.
Parkinson: The Libs AOT will win this one. She has run for Acacia Ridge in every election for the last 12 years, progressively halving the margin. She is a strong campaigner so I expect her to pick this up.
Karawatha: Very close. Despite the great hair and the admirable local profile Gail McP is in real trouble. My understanding is that many AWU types who live in the area are boycotting her campaign. Olive is running an ok campaign as well.
Wishart: Very VERY close but I think the Libs will squeak home here. THe ALP have a great candidate but the Libs candidate is formidable as well with strong funding behind her. One to watch.
McDowall: Safe as houses
Macgregor: Safe as houses. Paul Norton over at LP can tell you many stories about Jacques Develder from his time on the Griffith Uni student council.
Marchant: With Hayes’ retirement and a more vigorous Lib campaign I think this seat will fall to the Libs.
Toowong: Will be closer due to the reasonable but I think matic will be comfortable.
Hamilton: Safe as houses.
The Gap: Safe as houses.
Chandler: Safe as houses.
Walter Taylor: Safe as houses.
Bracken Ridge: Safe as houses.
Pullenvale: The Wit machine will ensure this ward remains a Liberal ghetto.
ALP
Holland Park: My home ward. Birmingham should retain this. The Lib candidate has run a lazy campaign. Coreflutes by the side of the road in the mornings don’t win a campaign.
Morningside: Sutton should sneak home with a reduced margin. Interesting that the prefs are going against her.
Doboy: Fairly safe ward for Labor. Uninspiring Lib candidate.
Wynnum-Manly: Will be close but I expect the Vastinator to lose. Many libs resent his presence out in the far East and he is very poor at one on one campaigning.
Northgate: Despite the scandals, Parer (son of party prez), won’t pick this up even though he has tried previously. He really isn’t a great candidate and lacks the work ethic and toughness of Flesser.
Moorooka: Marie Jackson works hard but the Lib party organisation here is really lacklustre.
Jamboree: Great enthusiastic Liberal candidate but I fear the margin may just be too great.
The Gabba: THe only interesting thing about this ward will be watching who comes third.
Enoggera: Safe as houses
Deagon: Safe as houses
Central: Safe as houses, again watch for who comes third.
Richlands: I would be VERY surprised if the ALP lose this ward despite the scuttlebutt that a swing is on.
Overall predicted Lib majority in council 14-12.
Ok now watch me get it totally wrong on Saturday night!
March 12th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/bccwr/lib264/annual%20report%2006-07%20financials.pdf
http://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/domino/dtf/dtf.nsf/html-v/04_05_ann_f_com_per.html
if I read those right brisbane is about twice the size of tassie ? Don’t have time to read it properly, just a scan.
Big councils aren’t about efficency, they are about reducing accountability. Big councils don’t oppose developers as well as small ones do, nor react to voter concerns.
I live at Mt Crosby. Once we were in Moreton Shire. Rates were $250/yr. They didn’t do anything but they didn’t bother us either. We were happy. Then the state gov stuck us in Ipswich, rates went to $1400/yr and they still didn’t do anything for us. We complained so much they stuck us in brisbane. Now rates are lower and we’re still ignored unless they want to come aggrovate us.
By the way I’m a passive observer in all this. I vote for M. DeWitt despite her liberal alliance not because of it. I don’t vote ALP, Lib nor Green at State or Federal level. I read up on candidates stance and vote for the person - usually independant - who best matches my attitudes. Thing is I’m in one of the safest conservative seats in Qld, so my vote doesn’t count anyway… I am merely commenting on the mechanics not the politics.
AVP: Whoever wins we lose
March 12th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Damian
I understand the trouble with big councils, but IMO your rates example at Mt Crosby is exactly why amalgamations are needed. From an engineering POV lots of smaller fringe councils piggybank the infrastructure built and paid for by larger urban councils. Thus Moreton and many other smaller councils were effectively subsidised by Brisbane and Ipswich ratepayers, who paid for all the trunk services that everyone then uses. Water, roads and electricity are good examples. I appreciate that everyone has their own preference, but the truth is that small rural blocks cost far more to service than people who live on them are charged. I have done sums for State governments that showed rural residential blocks would face differential headworks charges in excess of $50000 per block if the costs were distributed equitably.
March 12th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Hm.
Electricity isn’t supplied by the council, it’s state government. Also the power stations are south and west of me, and the hi vo lines run through Karana Downs.
There are three classes of roads in Australia, Federal, State and Local. Local council roads don’t cross council boundaries usually.
Water ? That was council owned, now taken over by the state, but Brisbane council admits they were selling it at a profit so if Moreton was buying from them it wasn’t subsidised. BTW I live 200 yards from Brisbane’s pumping station and water treatment works and Winenhoe was in either Moreton or Esk, can’t remember.. Brisbane’s main water infrastructure was built in the 1800’s by the state. I live in the middle of it and am well versed in the history. The last pipe was built in WW2 by the Americans and there has been little work in all the years I’ve lived here.
If your talking about land size that’s a completely different matter. I am not privy to your calculations so I can’t argue about that, but land size, zoneing, new development vs established suburb, they are all seperate arguments to council size.
The fact is Moreton was a rural council who charged low rates. I am prepared to believe the state gov was subsidising that, although I’d want to see the numbers, but I can’t see how Brisbane council was. We have a natural boundary around us (the river and the mountains), it’s really easy to see how services flow here. They all flow out, not in. I believe Moreton’s low rates were a product of limited services, they didn’t even patch the roads much.
If I have misunderstood you and your saying Moreton was subsidised by the state government I would argue the average tax contribution of people around here to state and federal gov properly makes up for any rates shortfall.
I accept there is potential economies of scale with larger councils. The trouble is:
The natural extrapolation of that is to do away with local and state government altogether.
It is difficult to reconcile democracy and efficiency. Which is more important and where sould the balance lie ?
Those economies of scale are often not apparent in the aftermarth of amalgamation, while a loss of representation is.
BTW I’m a mechanical engineer. Not a council civil eng but I have some understanding of the issues.
There is another issue I have with this which is changing the subject somewhat. While I accept the dampening effect of representative democracy vs popular democracy I reject the proposition that the electorate are capable of hiring the government but not of infuencing policy during the governments term. If there is widespread strong and sustained opposition to a policy then by definition the electorate should be obeyed. That was evident in the last round of amalgamations (and the one in the 90’s). Even if that decision is incorrect at least it’s the electorates error (and they ultimately pay for it) not one forced on them by politicians who move on…
Anyway…I’m getting well off topic again.
March 12th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
I think that Brisbane should have two-tier local goverment.
One city wide council including the Gold and Sunshine Coasts with control over water, transport (including trains)(exept local streets), general planning policy and other maters best delt with on a city wide basis.
Two dozen or so suburban councils dealing with more local issues.
The elections for the two tiers would be on different days.
March 12th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Antony Green has a guide to the BCC election up and running.
March 13th, 2008 at 11:11 am
#55
And keep the state government as well?
isn’t that just adding yet another layer of administrative bulldust for no apparent gain?
March 13th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
My local Labor candidate in Enogerra sent me (and I assume everyone else) a letter today. After spending what passes for a campaign bagging Can Do Campbell, today’s letter says -
“My pledge to our community is that if Cambpell Newman is elected again tomorrow (sic) I will work with him to ensure our part of Brisbane continues to thrive and our community and our community remains a great place to live. PS Being your local representative means being above political differences to ensure our local community comes first.”
Reading beyond the bare-faced hypocricy, it appears the ALP have run up the white flag on the Lord Mayoralty
March 13th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Oops…Enoggera
March 13th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Thats very SAD FernyGrover. They know their going to get a thumping this Saturday so they are putting on their best stockings & lip stick & getting tarted up like a bunch of $2 hookers!
March 14th, 2008 at 8:49 am
The cost of using tunnels.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/north-south-bypass-to-cost-773m/2008/03/13/1205126106736.html
March 14th, 2008 at 11:56 am
Brisbane Times has listed seats to watch
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/the-battle-for-brisbane/2008/03/14/1205126155100.html
Three are the seats the Greens are targetting and the other 2 are Enoggera and Richlands.
March 14th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Yep I’ve no doubt the ALP are in for a thumping tomorrow (as the above mentioned letter would testify) but it remains to be seen whether it’s enough of a thumping to lose them their majority in Council. Lord knows their harping, bitching, childish carryings on over the last 4 years should cost them several wards.
Trouble is, the Libs have been no better and they don’t deserve to be the beneficieries of Labor’s appalling performance.
Both parties deserve a whacking lesson that we’ve had enough shenanigans. We elect them to lead, and that means acting in the best, long-term interests of our communties. So this long-term Labor voter will be voting Green - and I won’t be giving preferences. It’s the only way to make them listen.
March 14th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Thought I should those interested in the Brisbane City Council election that we will be running a full results service at http://www.abc.net.au/elections. As I’m not doing radio or TV for a change, I’ll try my hand at some results blogging.
March 14th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
There’s a stray full stop in that last link.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections stands a better chance of working
March 14th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Many thanks Antony. I’ll drop in for a blog.
March 14th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Same here!
March 14th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Ferny Grover, I agree, I just couldn’t believe that letter. He has already turned his back on Rowell before election day! The labor guy lives in Bardon and so all his “our community” rubbish is pathetic. Ive also had the displeasure of meeting him and he comes across as arrogant.
March 15th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Ha Alderlian! I didn’t know young Mr Dart lived in Bardon. They must pay Labor apparatchiks well. It makes the hypocrisy of that letter all the more glaring. The trouble with Labor staffers is that politics is a career choice - it has nothing to do with principles or values. They could just as easily slip into the Liberal Party if it was in the best interests of their career.
But Labor is the party of values and ideals - which means its supporters are just as likely to turn on them if we see those ideals being ignored or trampled on by those hell-bent on self-interest.
So, it will be interesting to see if the ALPs large margin can save the non-resident Mr Dart in Enoggera.
Folks, it’s time … to take our community back.
March 15th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Gold Coast has a high profile overt Liberal campaign for the first time. Thought I might vote Green in my division, alas not a candidate. Hope the Libs get pi**ed on from a great height, send em back to their burrows.
March 15th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Second only to Brisbane Council is Logan. Should be interesting to track also. Turnup is supposed to be poor in brisvegas but word is saying there may be some protesting re- Amalgamations with informals too!
March 15th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
I’ve got a new thread up for discussion of the results, so I’m closing this one.