Feb 29 2008
Morgan: 64.5-35.5
The latest face-to-face Morgan poll shows Labor breaking its record result of a few weeks ago. It now leads 56.5 per cent to 31.5 per cent on the primary vote and 64.5-35.5 on two-party preferred. Morgan also presents us with qualitative findings on perceptions of the two leaders, which gives a strong impression that Brendan Nelson failed to please anybody in attempting to have two bob each way on the stolen generations apology.
Other news:
• The AEC has commenced redistribution proceedings for Western Australia and the Northern Territory. It is likely that no change will be required for the latter; the outlook for the former was earlier canvassed here.
• A transcript of a High Court hearing regarding Labor’s appeal against Fran Bailey’s win in McEwen has been published, the upshot of which appears to be that the matter will be heard in the Federal Court late next month.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 am
I am aware that would be the case, William. #596
To expand a little on what I said, I have heard of sites which are overwhelmed, and by accounts, deliberately so, in an effort to bring them down.
My intention is a challenge to that kind of attempt. And I do wonder. Look at nemesis, since even then has not stopped the meaningless post.
On the other hand, he may just be nemesis.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:57 am
[580#Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs Says:
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Mexican Beemer, I hope you noticed my response at 330 to you.]
Yes, I saw your post and agreed.
[I’m of the view that the primarily part Aboriginal children were primarily removed for the purpose of breeding the Aboriginal peoples out. Again, in my view, a continuation of other genocidal actions such as massacres, deliberate introduction of disease, poisoning, in another form.]
This view appears based upon the comments made by various Politicans and Public servents who impliemented the policy
[However, the point I was trying to make is that in order for an arrest to be made, a report of abuse/assault must be made, and for many children and adults this is often difficult for a few of the reasons I advanced.]
I accept this view, this was one of the reasons why mantionary reporting was introduced, sadly when it comes to child abuse or domestic violence the view that what happens behind closed doors remains behind closed doors was used to hide from the problem.
The way rape victims are forced to face the offender in court is one of the reason why many rapes go unreported, and how in some cases the rape victim is cross-examinted only adds to the suffering caused by the orginal crime.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:04 am
Crikey Whitey Says: @ 601,
[I have heard of sites which are overwhelmed, and by accounts, deliberately so, in an effort to bring them down.]
It’s amazing that you mention that Crikey.
I was strangely enough, thinking along similar lines when I posted at 575.
My thoughts were that that individual was purposely sabotaging the blog so that people would become frustrated and lose interest in posting on the site and in reading and commenting on other posters.
When that individual started overwhelming the site with repetitive and trashy comments, there was quite a deal of informative and enjoyable traffic which very quickly dried up, basically sabotaging the blog.
I stand by my comments at 575. This individual is nothing but a self-centered troll deliberately trashing William’s excellent blog.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 am
I appreciate everybody’s concern. Nemesis will be more economical tomorrow, voluntarily or otherwise.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 am
For sure, Scorpio. Apart from the cost implications, which I was concentrating on, the mere trashy stuff is enough to put one off.
In fact, my post counting is evidence of exactly that. Did I take any note of. or respond to the content?
No.
I was engaged with the trash.
Now, I don’t much respond to rubbish, but I suppose that I have, actually.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
Everyone (except William)
as GUSFACE
i was quite acceptable
as NEMESIS i am cause for concern
take a long long long hard look at yourselves
goodbye
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:23 am
Engaging, again. #606
More nonsense. As if.
Bye Bye.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:26 am
I thought the Mardi Gras was yesterday…
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:31 am
Nemesis, your behaviour under your new name has been quite different to that under your old name. You have indeed proved something here, but it’s not what you think.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:31 am
That’s a relief! LOL
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 am
Think it was, though I observed that our ABC still has not recovered, broadcast wise, Fulvio.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:22 am
600 I apologise then, for my assumption…but in fairness, that should work both ways.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:23 am
Interesting moves in the Libs, taking away the power of the branches, could it be that they are finally ready to accept the fact that they were unelectable thanks to the loony right fringe. And are finally ready to confront and change their public perceptions.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:45 am
Will the expected bloodbath on the ASX give the Reserve Bank pause for thought on further interest rate rises. This should be enough to spook the consumer spending spree, the spectre of deflation is looming in the US.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 am
Basil - source?
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:19 am
Zoom, the fact is that the measures taken so far by the US Fed Reserve (lowering interest rates dramatically esp) have had no impact on the US economy, indeed it has continued its downward spiral. The likelihood of deflation must be now considered a very real possibility. All we need now is for the oil exporting countries to demand payment in euros and it’s goodnight nurse.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:50 am
On the topic of oil exporters and euros, see:
http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Energy/Analysis/2007/09/10/analysis_iran_moves_to_ditch_us_dollar/6990/
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 am
The other consideration to put in the pot is the role of the Chinese.
My understanding (no source, just the ‘vibe’ over the last few months) is that one of the main sources of financial backing internationally is the Chinese.
If you’re the up and coming superpower and want to dispose of the old superpower, wouldn’t you be tempted to pull the plug on them financially?
(My son jests that he wants to rule the world when he grows up. My advice is to him is that conquest by arms is old hat - do it through control of the economy).
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:35 am
618 You mean like the ‘Hunt Brothers’, Zoom?
http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/hunt_bros.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:50 am
Zoom you are right when you say conquest by arms is old hat - do it through control of the economy.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:55 am
Yes, Zoom, my understanding is that it is the Chinese who are propping up the US now, financing their debt borrowings. Along with the usual suspects of course, Saudis etc. Regarding your son, I really hope you didn’t name him Adolph
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:56 am
Aussie SX taking a beating this morning, along with most Asian markets, also bad employment figures coming out of the US. Really hope the RBA is watching!
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Landslide: Sydney house values drop
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23307117-5001021,00.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
623 John of Melbourne - yes, thanks Mr. Howard for nothing.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Sorry I don’t know how to do links so have cut and paste from The telegraph
Isn’t it great to have a government that is respected on the international stage and is able to negotiate on delicate issues? My admiration for Kev rises more every day!
SCHAPELLE Corby’s chances of returning to Australia to serve out the rest of her 20-year sentence have been dramatically boosted following confidential negotiations between the Rudd Government and Indonesia.
Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus has held high-level talks in Jakarta aimed at finalising a prisoner transfer treaty with Indonesia that could see Corby return home within a year.
Mr Debus met Indonesia’s Attorney-General and Foreign Minister a week ago to hammer out details of the proposed treaty, which has languished over the past 18 months after negotiations stalled on several crucial details.
A signed treaty would allow Corby and at least three members of the Bali Nine to serve out the remainder of their sentences in Australian jails, close to family and in conditions far more comfortable than those in Bali’s Kerobokan prison.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:03 pm
vera Says: @ 625.
[Sorry I don’t know how to do links ]
Vera, to paste a link, right click in the “adress bar” of the article to be linked to, left click on “cut”, return to the “comments window” at PB and right click where you wish to place the link and right click on paste like I have done here. Easy.
There are other ways to do it, but this is the easiest for me.
Cheers, Scorpio.
http://www.pollbludger.com/815#comments
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Zoom and Basil (618 and 621 respectively)
Its no different than when the Japanese were financing the Carter/Reagan administrations deficits in the late 70s/early 80s. What happened then was that the US used its superior political/trade clout to basically tie the Japanese into continuing to do this for fear of restrictions on their access to the US market. Called it the Plaza Accords (1984 i think).
Anyway, depends on whether or not you think the US still has that political clout to pull a similar move, it could be one of the first moves of the new regime.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Off topic but topical and interesting and relevant…
I made mention of this before - seems you can read the whole article on-line now at Scientific American
A Solar Grand Plan
A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants could supply 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
606
nemesis Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
take a long long long hard look at yourselves
“I have. Everyone has. They love it”
Nemesis’s departure needed more fist shaking, piousness and a vow of revenge.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Good point, Yo ho ho.
So the question is, would the Chinese allow their biggest market to collapse, thus damaging their own economy?
I suppose it depends how used to the benefits of a booming economy China has become and whether they are willing to bear a short period of economic loss when the result may well be that they become the ‘top nation’ at the end of it.
A risk, certainly, but a risk worth taking?
As a totalitarian society (to what extent this is true, I don’t know) they’d be likely to take a longer term view than a wussy democracy. (Don’t get me wrong, I love democracies, but short term political considerations DO get in the way of world domination).
So is the best long term option for them…
i. continuing to shore up a collapsing US economy by not pulling the plug and thus maintaining a market for their goods, so that they can continue to build (still get to the world dominance bit in the long run);
or
ii. pulling the plug, taking short term pain, and reducing the US to the same level of world playerdom as the UK currently enjoys? (so still influential, just not The Leader?)
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
redrum
Judging by his post at possum’s, he might have a terminal disease, seriously.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Was nemesis really gusface?? Seemed much more irrational and juvenile to me.
I have a small business and all the long-term traders are saying things have never been so quiet. add on a couple more interest rate rise and it’s pretty scary.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Jen
My business is grinding to a stop also. I’ve placed some advertising for the first time in years….bad times ahead.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Zoom
I think its a wait and see thing for the Chinese. They’d be petrified of striking to early…the USA’s economy has looked massively pear shaped before (early 1970s, early 1980s) and countries that have been financing their deficits are usually the countries that get burnt (see Europe after Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard in 1971, and the Japanese with the plaza accords). The upper echelons who run the Chinese economy (at least, the national economy - the local govts routinely screw the economy for their own political benefit) are quite cluey on these things.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:35 pm
zoom @ 630 - I don’t see it as an either/or situation and I hope the Chinese don’t either.
It’s probably a moot point anyway. Successive American governments have been doing the work for them, and I’m far from convinced that any of the current presidential candidates would make the fundamental changes required to significantly turn things around. For one thing it would mean giving up much of the imperium.
If they’re smart the Chinese will be broadening their market bases ASAP. They’ve already indicated that they want to substantially increase the size of their domestic market. While that is a good move it will inevitably cause them to become less competitive at the low end of many market sectors, clothing, electronics and toys that make up the majority of their exports to the US.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Housing affordability plan announced.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/rudds-plan-for-cheaper-rentals/2008/03/03/1204402340246.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Interesting view on corporate china and Australian resource companies here.
http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/pulling-the-levers-in-corporate-china/20080302-1wb2.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:19 pm
631 Ogmios, just had a look at the post on Possum, certainly disturbing, hope he/she is ok.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Scorpio @626
thanks will give it a try next time
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Here’s a monday afternoon funny for you….
Have you seen this man? = http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/escape-of-terrorist-from-toilets-beyond-a-joke/2008/03/03/1204402346427.html
I like the pirate disguise the best
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:22 pm
steve @ 637 - From the link:
At what point might Chinese investment in Australia become contrary to the national interest?
It would be equally valid to ask “At what point might Australian control of international resource companies become contrary to China’s national interest?”
At least the Chinese are willing to use cash to prevent potential monopolies which may strangle their national interest and not political thuggery or war.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:23 pm
638 It was an amazing series of posts that often were impossible to decipher, seemed far more serious than anything I have seen here before, I too hope he is OK.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Is anyone else looking forward to tonight’s Newspoll? I bet some of you are like kids at Christmas; “Santa is comin’, I hope he brings me what I want.”
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:35 pm
643 News what? - I must admit that, although I looked forward to every poll last year, now that the election is over and a long way off, these polls mean very little to me. Mind you, if they’re like this just out from the next election I will be delighted.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:36 pm
I think Rudd is going to be on ACA.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
643 BSF A newspoll following the record breaking nine percent ppm will create a bit of interest. I think Rudd has pretty well cut him short of oxygen with his ioo days achievements so we may well see a move towards zero for Nelson. Wonder if Sham-I-am will break open a new calculator and work out the margin of error for this poll properly.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
If there is a one percent rise in Nelson PPM figure, will it be written up as a 10% rise?
Will Cardboard Kevin be included in the figures?
Will South America erupt into war? (And what is that going to do to the oil price?)
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Will there even be a Newspoll?
They’ve gone monthly lately - I’m sure they’ll get back to fortnightly at some stage, just wondering whether it would be now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Hmmm businesses slowing? My homebrew shop is doing OK, but I guess it is a counter cyclical thing–it was slow while the house building boom here was in full roar.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Possum, the online OZ says it will be released tonight at 10.30 AEST
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:19 pm
MayoFeral at 641, I’m not sure the Tibetans would neccessarily agree with you. Also noticed the post from nemesis/gusface at Possum’s. Very disturbing, given the postings on this thread as nemesis. Nemesis, if you’re lurking, go talk to someone you trust.
Business slowing? Well, not in my line of work. Himself indoors, architect, total crap for years. At least the kitchen got redesigned and built.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:26 pm
B. S. Faiman. I had only limited time to notice that Chavez was rolling tanks up to the Colombian border and no time to find out what the hell was going on. He has been recently involved in getting some long term hostages released from the Maoist type guerillas. Have you any more information on what he’s up to? Of course, he may just be miffed he got well and truly done in the recent referendum on giving him rather too much power.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Ooooh Mal X.
The anticipation begins!
Anyone have a link for the Oz lead-in?
Might be worth a try to read between the lines. The Newspoll results are released to The Oz early afternoon I think.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Forget that last request - it’s just a dead link. Nice blatant attempt to generate some eyeballs for advertisers with a little hype.
Funny thing is - it’ll work because were all suckers!
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:45 pm
I still cant believe that 35.5 percent of Australiand are morons
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:48 pm
655
Steveo
Unfortunately I can. I see some of them every day.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Steveo. Ditto Steve K.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:58 pm
My spanish is not very good, so I am relying on English language sites. Colombia sent troops into Ecuador to attack FARC rebels, killing a couple of dozen as they slept. Ecuador is very unhappy about the violation of the border, Ecuador and Venezuela are allies, Colombia and the USA are allies, plus they both don’t like Chavez. Venezula and Ecuador are both oil exporters.
So fill up tonight or tomorrow, two dollar petrol might be on the cards.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Just saw Rudd on 7.30 Report. This bloke is what you see is what you get. Keerist in a hammock, what a change from Howardian double speak straight out of 1984. I may not agree with everything he’s does, but at least I don’t have to listen to the self-centred, me at any cost, twisting of words and dog whistling that characterised Howard. Despicable man. I hope the Liberals trash his legacy. Glad I got that off my chest.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Rudd’s main priority throughout the term will be to keep the people informed on the economy - who is responsible for what.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Thanks, B.S. Faiman. Interesting. The FARC have been going for a very long time. I was in Colombia in the mid 70s and you needed to be mindful of where you went and who was around, or you could wind up dead, robbed or held for ransom very easily. FARC had, of course, been going for a good deal longer than that. Of equal impotance were the emerald wars, which had been raging out in the provinces and at the time, were still raging. Easy way to get yourself killed, mining emeralds. This, in my view, relates to the early incursions of the Conquistadors into Colombia, searching for El Dorado. Well, it was there from the POV of the Spanish, but when the locals figured out what the Spanish were after, they threw the lot in a local lake. If you go to the Museo del Oro in Bogata, ther is a central vault with glass wall containing over 10,000 gold items, spoons, buttons, pins, you name it as an item of everyday use. Other parts of the museum have the most exquisite examples of all the gold working techniques known today. Also when I was there, parts of some of the cities such as Cartagena, would be shut down electronically as much as 3 times per day, in order for the ‘American’ parts, the hotels, where the weekend coke and dope deals were happening, to continue.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Kina, he did it nicely.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Kina, but strategically. He’s certainly smart.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I must confess to a sneaking admiration for Chavez, he knows how to get up the nose of that fascist Bush and Co, and of course the reality is that he has OIL to flaunt in the face of the Yanks.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
In a first (as far as I can remember) the Australian has a headline up: “See the latest Newspoll at 10.30pm”.
Can’t ever remember them advertising a coming Newspoll for the on-line edition in the past.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Looks like Exxon Mobil has upset him with some court cases.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/02/10/venez.exxon/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:06 pm
How come all this news was so slow getting out?
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/03/03/ecuador.colombia/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Nobody on the ground there, I guess. Plus it is not like PR to English speaking world is high priority.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:16 pm
BSF that second CNN link seems to be half news, half spin too. A very sus report if ever I saw one.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Might be why it is getting low play….
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:32 pm
Hmmm, interesting post Steve. Wouldn’t neccessarily give you 2 bob for what’s reported out of South Amarica. Colombia used to colour itself pink (I kid you not) along with pink for the U.S. on their national T.V.. as bastions of democracy. They’re probably still doing it. A continent of very strange and extreme political positions, a lot of it fueled by the U.S. ghastly interventions to secure its own interests, see Pinochet’s Chile.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Milne is showing serious signs of having a duel personality. One day he’s sliding around in the gutter and the next he’s kissin’ Labour’s arse. Fawkner (a man that I very much admire) couldn’t help but be flattered by this piece.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23307664-33435,00.html
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Well any predictions on Newspoll? I think the last one was nearer to the bottom end of the MOE range - so I’m guessing something nearer the Morgan poll. I’m tipping 60/40.
Can’t recall an opposition leader looking so dead in the water.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Make that ‘dual’. I don’t think he’s got the balls for a duel….unless he’s had a skin full.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
665
Bushfire Bill Says:
650…snap!
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
My god, what a crock that garbage is from Milne. I reckon Faulkner would see this nonsense for what it is…garbage. I don’t think Faulkner is a fool. Milne clearly is.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Has everyone gone off to do other stuff, like go to bed or something? You lucky bastards!
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Yes. We are all in bed. Except instead of a girlfriend I have a laptop.
What will the headline be if Newspoll is 55/45?
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I actually thought the last newspoll at 57/43 would have given the libs some heart - particularily in the context of their single digit leader.
A 55/45 would put them back in game.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
“What will the headline be if Newspoll is 55/45?”
‘The Night Watchman Digs In’
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
678 [What will the headline be if Newspoll is 55/45?]
Rabble Rewarded!
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
“The Locum’s miracle cure”? Dennis would be proclaiming that if the gap was to continue to close at this rate the margin will be a 70% Liberal lead by the next election.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
63/37 - a new record
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Actually that would a Liberal Party lead of 170% the way Dennis does his maths.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
No more Mr 9%. Now he is Mr 7%.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Try
Mr 7%!
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Brendan oh 7%
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Beat me to it B.S. Fairman.
What an amazing situation. That leadership position better pay lots more than a shadow minister as even the most ego driven fool would not want it at this time.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
7%
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
New thread up.