Nov 11 2007
Seat du jour: Boothby
The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby extends from Brighton and Marino on the coast through the outer edge of the coastal plain to Myrtle Bank, and out into the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. These are established areas marked by a high level of religious observance and relatively few young families. The seat’s Liberal leaning is softened slightly by the area around the Mitsubishi plant at Clovelly Park, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. This area has usually reversed the overall patten of Liberal support in the high fifties, although the 2004 election produced a partial convergence: the Labor suburbs swung slightly to the Liberals, while the remainder followed the trend of Adelaide’s affluent areas in going solidly to Labor. The relatively strong Labor performance was partly credited to its candidate Chloe Fox, who went on to win the state seat of Bright with a 14.0 per cent swing at the March 2006 election. Maps below show 2004 two-party vote and swing results at booth level, with numbers varying in size to indicate the number of votes cast.
Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he retired in 1996, at which point his moderate faction hoped the seat might accommodate its leading light in the Senate, Robert Hill. However, Hill suffered an embarrassing preselection defeat at the hands of a 26-year-old factional colleague, Andrew Southcott (right). Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate”. This manoeuvre left a star performer stuck in the Senate, while a plum lower house seat went to a man who has not made it so far as parliamentary secretary during 11 years in parliament.
Sniffing a potential upset, Labor poached what it imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes (left), a minor celebrity in Adelaide through her lightweight Sunday Mail column and marriage to local football legend Graham Cornes. State Treasurer and Right faction powerbroker Kevin Foley, a friend of the couple, had initially made the offer to Graham, a former Liberal supporter who had used his own newspaper column to rail against the Prime Minister over the Iraq war. When this was knocked back the invitation was extended to Nicole, Foley perhaps sensing a parallel with Jackie Kelly and her win in Lindsay in 1996. Amid the blaze of publicity surrounding the announcement of Cornes’s candidacy in April, attention was quickly drawn to a column from 2004 in which she wrote that John Howard had “proved himself to be a fine PM”. That soon proved the least of her concerns, as a series of embarrassing performances before the media showed her to be out of her depth. The worst of these occurred in late September, when she floundered disastrously in attempting to explain her party’s position on WorkChoices in an interview on ABC radio. This was on the same day that an Advertiser poll showed her trailing Southcott 49 per cent to 32 per cent on the primary vote, and by 52 per cent to 27 per cent among women.
While most statewide opinion polls have pointed to a swing in South Australia upwards of 10 per cent, the Advertiser poll helped establish a consensus that Southcott would retain the seat. Mark Kenny of The Advertiser wrote last week that Boothby was not “expected” to change hands, “unless the political stocks of the Government deteriorate even further”. Half-way through the campaign Newspoll published a marginal seat poll covering Boothby along with the three Adelaide marginals that have been all but written off for the Liberals, Kingston, Wakefield and Makin. This pointed to a below-par swing to Labor of 5.8 per cent, suggesting Boothby might have dragged down the average. Nicole Cornes had yet another awkward public moment in the fourth week of the campaign, stammering her way through a confrontation with a bloodthirsty media pack after a shopping centre appearance with Kevin Rudd.
November 11th, 2007 at 6:57 am
I wonder what sort of drugs they were on when they chose Cornes? Surely they could have done better than this.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:10 am
Its interesting that there has been a few people attacking comments questioning the ability of the fine labor candidate in this seat, on the grounds that its typical sexist stuff. The polls would tend to show that the greatest reaction to her ability has come from female voters, ummm
November 11th, 2007 at 7:15 am
Hopefully, she won’t cost Labor this seat, but I don’t hold that much hope. Labor should have just preselected a good ol’ fashioned union thug.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:37 am
I agree Lord D. Union thugs have that certain ‘retro charm’ that many star recruits lack.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:37 am
Yeah, ABC, anyone but Cornes
November 11th, 2007 at 7:44 am
I thought people didn’t like politicians.Nicole is certainly not a politician, she should romp it in.
The problem is with the media, they always give that other non politician (Pauline H)a better run and she can’t even speak English nor Australian. Just some gibberish about being Oystrayan.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:50 am
actually Nicole Cornes is very warm and articulate in real life, i went to one of her meet and greets out of curiosity,{i’m in Wakefield} i can understand her freezing in front of the cameras in the beginning, it’s no easy thing believe me, i spent eleven years in the public eye under extremely distressing circumstances and during that time i think i was on just about every current affairs program on air plus hundreds of newscasts, we never knew when we pulled into our driveway just what tv channel would be on our front lawn waiting, i survived it in the end by going into robot mode, you press the on button, recite whatever you’ve been primed up to say and then press the off button and collapse in a quivering heap, Nicole didnt have time to prepare for the media feeding frenzy before they descended on her and one thing you cant do with the media is be outright honest– ask Garrett.
the impression of Nicole being a loser can mostly be blamed on newspaper rivalry, though both the Advertiser and the Sunday Mail are from Rupert’s stable the editors are nevertheless bitter rivals, Nicole was a Sunday Mail columnist and the Advertiser ran a hate campaign against her– nuff said.
just look at how Nicole has stuck it out regardless of the shite thats been aimed at her, a lesser person would have cut and run, believe me it would have been a far easier option, that says something about her charactor, i hope she gets in even just to give the slaggers the finger and i’m sure she’ll be a much better representative for Boothby than Southcott.
after that rant i’ll now retire back into my corner lol.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:50 am
Well they say perception is everything in politics. Cornes may well be hard-working and reasonably intelligent to those who know her, but a string of verbal blunders has made her come across as a dumb blonde bimbo with no knowledge of politics at all.
November 11th, 2007 at 8:01 am
If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen!
My comment had more to do with the fact that she heartily endorsed the rodent as
a great prime minister in 2004, is that a good recommendation for Labor pre-selection???
November 11th, 2007 at 8:16 am
I’ve said this before, but… if this seat (where I live) doesn’t fall to the ALP, then Kevin Foley needs to have a good long hard look at himself. The arrogance and cronyism of this decision shows the worst aspects of ALP factionalism. Kevin Foley needs to stop parachuting friends into winnable contests and thereby losing them!
November 11th, 2007 at 8:23 am
Basil, it’s a womans perogative to change her mind, at that time she wouldnt have been tuned into politics, lets face it anyone would have seemed great against Latham, i’m a dyed in the wool laborite from my roots and yet even i couldnt bring myself to vote for Latham, ive been very anti Gillard because of her strong ties with Latham and it’s only been recently that ive become an admirer of her by clearing my mind of bias and watching her at work, perhaps you could try and do the same over Cornes and try giving her a go, if she gets in i doubt she’ll ever make the front bench but if she represents her constituants fairly then she will have done her job, thats something Southcott has never done.
November 11th, 2007 at 8:43 am
Judy @ 11, I have the greatest admiration for women becoming actively involved in politics, indeed I am a great admirer of Penny Wong, she is one of the best things that could have happened to Labor. My point was made irregardless of gender, this person is an air-head of the first order, why oh why did they decide to put her in what should have been a winnable seat?
November 11th, 2007 at 9:02 am
basil just how much do you know about Cornes? you call her an airhead, she was born in the area, she had to leave school at 15 to go to work and help out her single mother support her siblings, she worked her way up to secretary at radio 5AA where she met her husband and then started a family, while having her two children she opened a successful small business which she then sold, she then went back to school and got her matric and went onto uni and just finished her law degree with high distinctions when she was asked to stand for Boothby, thats hardly the resume of an average housewife, i took the trouble to find out about her after my journo pal was scathing about the attacks on her, he told me she was entirely different to the way she was portrayed, as i wrote before i can understand her panic in her first media interviews, they were dropped on her without any preparation after the news of her standing was leaked out– you can blame her minders for that.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:18 am
JustAlarmed (above) is spot on. Kevin Foley reeks of arrogance, rudeness and is so unqualified to lead our state’s economy is makes me feel sick! Cornes won’t win this seat, she has no chance. Most of my family and friends live in Boothby (I live in neighbouring Kingston) and those who are Labor voters say they are being treated with absolute contempt by having Cornes thrust on them.
Strangely though I observe that the entire electorate is covered in Cornes posters (to a greater extent that any other SA marginal seat). In the past fortnight I have traversed the entire electorate for one reason or another and on every stobie pole there’s image of Cornes staring down at me.
However, yesterday as I was driving home, in the southern section of the electorate there is now a huge billboard of … not Cornes, but Amanda Rishworth, ALP candidate for Kingston, obviously Labor are using their money wisely to target voters in transit through the electorate rather than those living in it.
Cornes will not win.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:30 am
A DARK HORSE IN BOOTHBY ?
There is a newspaper article indicating Southcott has held the seat four times and his current margin is 5.4 percent but even Southcott does not consider it a ’safe’ Coalition seat, claiming {b.s I am told by people who live there] he has worked very hard for his seat since being elected..blah blah blah.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/10/2087304.htm?site=elections/federal/2007.
The article notes that Cornes mumbled and stumbled through a media scrum (again) after Mr. Rudd gave her the benefit of his support toward the end of week four.
As I wrote to Ms Jasmine on a previous thread after she spat the dummy and went elsewhere, screaming feminist diatribe slogans at people who attacked Ms Cornes, her gender does NOT shape my veiw of her as a candidate for a political election.
What does concern me from a Labor Party standpoint is that –
(1) A two time sitting member is hard to unseat, let alone a four time sitting member (even if he is useless and unsighted);
(2) The Advertiser going hard at finding her faults and giving her constant ‘bad press’ is neither here nor there, not everyone beleives the sun rises in SA if The Advertiser says so. In fact, if they keep posting her picture on the front page it will attract many a moron voter because she is very ‘easy on the eye’ (hot, you might say); Is it concerning that people vote on the basis of looks, chitt yeah, but that is the reality;
(3) Feminist freinds of mine living in SA, from Flinders University and Adelaide University, tell me she is NOT being attacked or lambasted or whatever for being a WOMAN candidate, she is being attacked for being “stupid”, a dim wit, thick, not much between the posts. That is the dominant image of her, like it or not.
(4) She has to combat the equally moronic stereotype of her being a ‘blond bimbo’ with the ‘educated/intellectual’ morons who poo poo blokes who will vote for her because she is ‘hot’ and then vote against her because she fits their ‘blond bimbo’ stereotype;
(5) The hypocritical educated/intelligent moron dismissal of Cornes is fed by her having been too often nervous and uncomfortable with suddenly finding cameras and tape recorders and microphones shoved vehemently in her face every time she takes a breath in the public space by vultures looking to win authorship of the next news *grab* in TV and print media ‘Headlines’.
The ‘bad press’ feeds the egos of wankers and intellectuals who would not have voted for Cornes anyway and this may be counter balanced by equally moronic male voters who will vote for her because she is physically attractive.
On reflection, Labor may look back and wonder what a different candidate might have acheived if Southcott gets over the line with his margin slashed to less that 2.0 but survives to hold Boothby for the Coalition for a 5th time.
Every party produces ‘dud’ candidates and ‘dud’ Ministers as well {think of Dolly, Pyne, Andrews, Nelson, Coonan and my favourite, Ruddock}.
My distant perception of Cornes is that she is a ‘dud’ candidate with no political sense at all, but I won’t blame her entirely if the seat is not won for Labor.
Others will have to share the responsibility for that and not be gutless wonders hiding under her skirts and using her as the donkey to pin.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:43 am
I reckon the Tsunami will elect Nicola Cornes as well,anyone else who thinks differently are kidding themselves.It is the nature of landslides to elect the good,the mediocre and the bad.Why??
The electoral process is presidential in style,people want to vote for Rudd and get rid of Howard(after all this IS all about Howard),So Cornes will benefit from that sentiment,pure and simple.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:46 am
I think Nicole has a chance, but if she does win, she will be lucky. It’s clear that her candidacy has had its problems, although the media has been unfair, but not unexpectedly so.
When looking at William’s booth-by-booth maps and knowing the suburbs quite well, I just can’t see where a decent enough swing is going to come from. When I do the same thing for Sturt, however, I see the potential for quite large swings in a fair number of booths.
For this reason, and based on the statewide anti-liberal feeling sweeping south australia, I am confidently predicting an upset win for Mia Handshin in Sturt. Common sense tells me that Nicole Cornes will miss out, but will probably shave some of the margin from Southcott. If that is the case, the ALP will honestly know they chose the wrong candidate.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:50 am
If you’re not from Adelaide and reading this blog, you have no idea of the controversy Nicole Cornes has stirred up. I would bet London to a brick Nicole Cornes will get well below the state average swing, it’s just a question of how much below, and if that can get her over the line. I think the green vote will be fairly high, which might be Nicole’s best chance.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:52 am
Go Nicole you show them.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:53 am
I agree with you Jasmine, there are sadly too many people sucked in to the crap the media puts out there.
November 11th, 2007 at 9:57 am
I would like to re-iterate what Matthew said. You simply cannot comprehend how people see Nicole Cornes here unless you live in Adelaide. It’s hard to give an example for other states, because SA is so unique in that we are one big damn country town.
It won’t happen. There will be a swing, but it won’t be enough.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Well if Cornes does get over the line it will be Kudos to the likes of another ‘female’ Labor person, campaign spokeswoman Penny Wong. Matty I am an ex Adelaide person and I have freinds and family over there [yes in Boothby] and they are telling me anecdotally she is considered a ‘dud candidate’. I hope she does prove the critics wrong and wins the seat without much support from Labor outside of SA.
As Jasmine says, “Go Nicole, you show them” and I will gladly acknowledge the egg on my face in assessing her at this point as a political dud with no political sense.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Labor hasn’t won Boothby since 1946. It would be a miracle if it ever wins it again. Nevertheless, the Liberals are resorting to personalized TV to boost their sitting member in Boothby. They must be worried.
Actually, Labor will be lucky to win any new seats in SA at this election if the Murdoch press continues in the vein of today’s Sunday Mail.
1. The front page splash is the old beat-up about how Julia Gillard’s former lover defrauded the AWU. The scam is explained at length on Page 4 with lots of innuendo.
2. Page 5 leads with “Doubt over Rudd as PM” - a Galaxy focus group’s finding in Kingston. Reports from a more favourable focus group in Makin are buried low in the story. Makin Lib candidate Bob Day is pictured shaking the hand of a supporter.
3. Nick Xenophon is derided on Page 7 for his alleged lack of action in trying to save the Murray. (Also on Page 7, Kevin Rudd warns of dew IR plan and is pictured with supporters).
4. An extraordinary editorial occupies Page 41 - “Why Mr X does not deserve your vote”.
5. Glenn Milne on Page 42 tells “Why Rudd is engaged in a giant ruse”.
6. Piers Ackermann on Page 43 invokes Latham and ‘exposes’ how Rudd’s using “phony crises … to scare votes from punters”.
Almost wall-to-wall sleaze and smear.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:24 am
warns of new IR plan
November 11th, 2007 at 10:29 am
Well Phil its not just the Sunday Mail where your comments get censored for being accurate
November 11th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Phil @ 23. On point 2), I also noticed that headline.
Reading the article, their focus groups consist of only 7 people.
Hardly representative & worthy of that headline.
Another piece of blanat political bias.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:44 am
I read the Sunday Mail “focus group” article too chaps, and concur with your comments. Those sorts of things just make me laugh, they are just so blatantly skewed to present whatever point the editor wishes to make. What’s more the articles are so shabbily written, it makes you wonder where News Limited find their journos. Probably P*ssed as parrots in Glenn Milne’s favourite bar.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:55 am
Phil @ 23. I haven’t seen any personalised Liberal for Boothby TV adverts. Would you care to enlighten us a little more?
November 11th, 2007 at 10:57 am
Good grief.
I’ve only just gone to read the Sunday Mail… what on Earth has gotten into them? That is an unbelievably petty attack on Xenophon. Writing a few negative articles is on thing, a full page personalised attacking editorial is another.
Jeez.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:15 am
This will be a safe retain for the Government.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:16 am
She’ll win. Johnny’s making sure of that…
November 11th, 2007 at 11:19 am
Of course, buried further down the Sunday Mail article was the report of another enormous focus group of seven voters in Makin, where 3 would vote Labor and only 2 Liberal, with 2 undecided and some scathing comments about Howard quoted.
So, according to the Sunday Mail, the Liberals will presumably get a vote of 70% in Kingston and 30% to 40% in Makin?
The focus group of 11 voters they have been following from the start of the campaign are currently as follows:
Voted Liberal in 2004 - 6
Voted ALP - 0 (Well balanced Sunday Mail sample, as usual)
Voted Greens - 1
Voted Democrat - 1
Voted Independent - 1
Didn’t vote - 2
Their current leaning is now:
Leaning to Liberal - 3
Leaning to Labor - 7
Leaning to Labor or Independent - 1
So the ALP has presumably gained 7 new votes out of 11 people.
Naturally, the featured headline is “Doubt over Rudd as PM”.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Matthew Flinders (27), I haven’t seen personalized ads for Southcott either, but the Tiser last week did mention they were in the pipeline. Did see one for Fawcett in Wakefield.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Thanks Phil @ 32. I hadn’t seen or heard about any either, and just wanted to check that i wasnt missing out.
as Thommo @ 29 said, I expect this to be a safe retain for the government, predominantly due to the choice of ALP candidate. Had a Mia Handshin been present in Boothby, I believe it would have been a LOT closer.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Southcott has lived a very charmed life, having 2 very prestigious roles in the community (Surgeon and MP) and being very mediocre at both of them. He hasn’t had to do anything to retain this seat except keep his mouth shut and watch the media savage Nicole Cornes.
The impression I have from Nicole Cornes is that she is a people-person, not a media-person. She’s very engaging but has no clue about policies except that she doesn’t like WorkChoices or the Iraq war. A bit like most voters. I think given the media’s treatment of her so far, she’d have to work harder than Southcott if she was elected, simply because if she failed to perform for her electorate, it would be front page news.
Matthew Sykes has it right on. There’s too much blue blood in Boothby for Nicole Cornes to win it on the anti-Howard vote.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:41 am
Nicole has had good recent publicity in the suburban press, including a front page account of how she was loudly cheered - while Dr Southcott was jeered - at a candidates forum before 200 people at Blackwood
November 11th, 2007 at 11:45 am
What the Wax farmer should have done was asked someone like Greg Combet to run in this seat. I guess Combet was promised a safe Labor seat in return for the campaign funding ^^.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:48 am
all these attacks on nicole cornes and foley, I think they need to be clarified.
Think back to around feb this year when preselections were occuring. at that time of south australia’s 11 seats there are the following
Safe labor 1 (pt adelaide_
very marginal labor 2 (hindmarsh, adelaide)
very marginal liberal 3 (kingston, makin, wakefield)
sligtly marginal liberal 2 (boothby, sturt)
safe lib 3 (gray, barker, mayo)
so essentially that means that 7 of 11 seats are in play. Remember at the time of preselections the rudd bandwaggon had not being running strong for 9 months, hindsight is a powerful thing. It would have been expected that it would be close in atleast some of the 5 ultra marginals.
Campaigns cost alot of money, in makin, adelaide and hindmarsh labor are running against millionaires (and in the case of makin, mr money bags), wakefield and kingston both have the benefit of incumbency (as do sturt and boothby) for the liberals.
Now lets say your the alp guy that splits up the money for each campaign, it is obviously going to be tight in the distribution of resources (even if each campaign raises there own money, most of it comes from the same limited groups of people). Rishworth and champion both need alot of money spent on them to establish profiles in the community, and bob day has already sent the entire electorate a ruler, fridge magnet, notepad and a kitchen sink.
During preselections boothby and sturt were not highly likely to be won at the election, and given the state has 5 of its 11 seats as marginal it is logical to try and save money.
Thus the logical option is to choose a candidate who dosn’t need to have tens of thousands in establishing a profile, and get one that get’s alot of free media. Enter Cornes and Handshin, both ‘celebrity’ (id never heard of either of them, but meh) candidates. Both already have a profile and in the case of sturt have the added benefit of making it easier to spend enough to keep pyne and his money bags at home.
As it turns out the swing to labor is looking very impressive in sa and both boothby and sturt are seriously in play, and the 5 ultra marginals are almost certain to fall to labor. However judging the preselection in hindsight is not fair, and while it clearly hasn’t worked out all that well I dont think it was a bad decision based on the cicumstances at the the time.
remember if labor had preselected a union thug/branch member their name recognition would be minimal at best.
November 11th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Right on, Jimmy.
November 11th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
Regardless of Cornes or not, I still think that demographically Sturt is more ripe for swinging than Boothby. Boothby has many areas with a high percentage of older conservative voters, who wouldn’t swing away from the liberal party in a million years. Sturt has a much more tertiary educated liberal type of voter. These people would be impressed with the more conservative (but not too much so) Kevin Rudd. Also the north-eastern areas of Sturt (quite different from the rest of the seat) which have 2004 2PP votes of 50-55 for the liberals look more like they should have 50-55 to labor at this election.
November 11th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
I agree Matthew, the seat of torrens and florey in sturt have a significant difference in state and federal vote, potential for 10%+ swings in those booths, they are needed as I dont think the burnside council is going to swing nearly as much as the national swing, also note that last election the southern booths swung about 2% to the alp, while the northern booths the reverse. So yeah the northern booths are critical, however they need to swing alot to make up for some of the real strong southern booths (65% liberal primary…)
william: any chance of sturt getting an analysis in the next two weeks?
November 11th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
burnside council area*
November 11th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
My insider says Labor is polling “remarkably well” in both Sturt and Boothby. But, then, he’s been wrong before.
November 11th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
look everyone we’ll know in two weeks today how the dice has fallen, Nicole either will or wont get Boothby for Rudd and the same goes for Mia against Pyne, what ive taken offence to is people here who have never met the woman writing her off as a blonde bimbo because of some newspaper reports when clearly she’s not, ive had to face up to some horrific headlines and stories in the past and i KNOW most journos dont let the truth get in the way of a good story, the Adelaide people here would know all about the “family” murders and the media feeding frenzy of those years, i’m very cynical of most journos–i know them all too well, i cant help but feel sorry for her and the way they are trying to destroy her credibility.
on a different subject i rang David Fawcett the Wakefield incumbant and gave hin an earful about his ad saying Rann was soft on crime, i told him he’s alienated a lot of people seeing Rann bought in the dangerous offenders legislation recently, he was a bit nonplussed at my reaction i think.
November 11th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
The Advertiser has been disgraceful on its treatment of Cornes, and even Southcott as well. I have it on very good authority that journalists at the Advertiser have benn ordered to run with a “No good news” policy on Cornes. I am all for her being criticised for her gaffe on Adelaide radio and other such mistakes which she actually does make, but some of the negative stories they have run on her recently have been just bizzare. The same can’t be said for Mia Handhin, a former columnist at the Advertiser, who the sun seems to shine out of.
As for criticisms of Nicole previously voting for Southcott; I think that has now been overshadowed and isn’t even an issue. When I first heard the news I thouht it would be a positive for the ALP, as there is no way the wealthy residents of Boothby would vote for a raving left winger. Most of them have been blue ribbon Liberal voters for generations, and if anything a former Howard voter would appeal to them more than the average ALP candidate.
November 11th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Cornes will win and basil she is not as big an air head as Penny and I know both
November 11th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Kev, as ive written before, though their from the same stable theres fierce rivalry from both the editors of the two papers, Nicole was a Sunday Mail comumnist so the Advertiser sets out to belittle her, my journo mate switched from one to the other paper and there was ructions, how stupid and petty can it get?
November 11th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
Actually Judy I completely agree and I would blame that goose Foley, who barely sees beyond peroxide and any skirt lately, his vision has been obscured by the massive swelling associated with his cranium
November 11th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Dave S I agree with all of your comments except the ALP strongly believes Cornes will win, thats why you have seen masses of corflutes appear, mind you they are using the same pollster this time that advised Latham last time
November 11th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Bluebotlle you are being misled by your sources, cornes is an object of sympathy, people are starting to react to the media beating up on her- she will win
November 11th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Your on the money Bob, but in this case it will come as a surprise locally, because the media has beaten up on her and written her off so conclusively, she has been villified by jealous non-selected ALP would be’s from the Bolkus left if the truth be known and their story line “if only they had selected a really good candidate like one of us comrades”, she is actually a lot smarter than she is given credit for and after this experience won’t be as politically naive
November 11th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Matthew you’d be from Bolkus’s sheltered workshop would you, you should ask the great man what the ALP polling is showing, he like me would probably like to take some of your money. You are correct except in reverse Pyne will probably mang on by his fingernails and cornes will get up, and no Mia would have probably lost in Boothby as would have all the B grade left staffers that wanted a run
November 11th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
I’ve got an example for you Max - Pauline Hanson, she was beaten up on by the media and she was a far greater goose than Cornes but just a sympathy inspiring, get used to it -another seat to Don, you guys messed up again
November 11th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
whoops looks like ive scared everyone off this thread— sorry.
November 11th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Back to the good old days of the sunday mail
November 11th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Dont pennys staffers have aything better to do than write to blogs, Penny has been invisible this campaign and will have nothing to do with Cornes winning infact the opposite the Bolkus left have assiduously sought to undermind her from day one with their media contacts in SA, because she was put up by Foley and Farrell and they wanted the seat. get real
November 11th, 2007 at 3:55 pm
I C Moore just for your own information, I am a member of no ALP faction, I just simply tell it how I honestly see it. I don’t believe internal party polling, I prefer to listen to people I speak to on the ground in these electorates. It is my view Mia has a better chance than Nicole. I hope I am wrong, and they both win.
November 11th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
RE SA seats
libs are only sure of 2 seats Mayo & Barker
3 lib held seats are ultra marginal… Kingston, Wakefield and Makin
2 ” ” Seats are FS lib …. Boothby & Sturt
Grey is possible for special reasons despite large margin 13%
so 8 seats are in play
should labor win any of the last 3 seats then it will be a labor landslide
Is SA now looking like SA of 1969?
November 11th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Andrew Southcott- $1.28
Nicole Cornes- $3.40
according to Portlandbet
November 11th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Cornes is a disgrace to accept this position. She got nominated because she is hot and married to a known football hotshot. She has no history of wanting a political career and she has shown no intentions of it, other than to accept this job. Why didn’t they choose someone more passionate and worthy instead of disrespecting Australians for having to choose her to represent Labor.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
Blehygu, Cornes may have been caught out of her depth but she is not the disgrace, the Labor Party is. The position would not have been available had they not offered it to her in the first place, and obviously she has at least some interest in politics or she would have refused the position.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Kev, thankyou i was disgusted by Blehygu’s post but i was too upset to answer, it saddens me when others set themselves up to judge someone who has done them no harm and who probably they will never know.
November 11th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
I think she is going to win.
South Australia is going all out Labor this election… wait and see.
November 11th, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Jesus… and that reminds me… she is out to $3.20 on Centrebet… time to put some money down!
November 11th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
LaborVoter @ 64, you will need more than Jesus for Nicole Cornes to win Boothby, and you to win your money….
November 11th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
I C Moore says some interesting things on this issue. I agree that being a political novice is not necessarily a liability. Pauline (shudder) Hanson was a prime example before she got megalomania. Flo Bjelke Petersen in the Qld Senate ticket was another. Flo got there with some help from Joh’s name, but she built up a recognition by being herself, which sounded like a dill for many of us insiders but went over a treat with a lot of voters.
I have a couple of friends in Boothby. Formerly ALP diehards who left after Tampa. Still cheer for Labor. Like Phil and I C, they’ve picked up that she’s doing all right out among the people. And as Judy says, she might not be groomed in politics, but she’s far from a mug. Underestimate her at your peril.
And another thing about Boothby (at least before the boundaries gradually moved westwards) … in times past at State level the seat of Mitcham was held by one Robin Millhouse, a genuine small ‘l” Liberal and later Liberal Movement Leader and later still Australian Democrat State MP before retiring to the bench. If as Possum suggests there is a backlash against Howard Hansonism in the old leafy inner suburbs, this demographic would probably feel quite safe in supporting Cornes and Rudd,
I’d like to get Piping Shrike’s take on it. I reckon she’s a chance.
November 11th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
I know lots of people in Boothby who will vote for Nicole Cornes simply because they want to rid this country of Howard. That’s why I will be voting for her…I am being pragmatic about it and have a “bigger picture” to look at. Plus Andrew Southcott is lazy and I has not been a good local member.
November 11th, 2007 at 11:34 pm
believe me cornes will win. Southcott is portraying himself as a “hard working local” without Howard anywhere to be seen in material. He is front and centre. One problem. He hasn’t been a hard working local! The overall anti Howard sentiment will ensure his vote collapses and his lack lustre campaign efforts to distance himself from Howard and as a hard working local will be fruitless. She’ll get up on preferences.
Also Matthew Sykes, I disagree with ur views on demography. I think Boothby will swing and swing big regardless of candidate. Look at the swings at leafy booths last time. and now the campaign is focussed even more on Iraq, Climate Change, nuclear power and other “doctors wives issues”.Its full of academics, thinking ppl. and many of these see through media hyperbole.
Libs are in some serious shit in SA and in Boothby or they wouldnt be running ads for southcott.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:56 am
If a landslide is on the cards, it will not matter a jot who the Labor candidate is. Look at the riff-raff who won seats for the Tories in 96, Kelly, Vaile etc etc. If a big swing is on, the good, the bad and the average will all be swept away.
Gary.
November 12th, 2007 at 9:04 am
I hope you’re right Ben, I just feel there are too many oldies in Boothby who won’t switch their vote. I lived in Brighton for a few years, and that and nearby areas are full of conservative wealthies.
Nicole’s best chance of getting a good swing are from areas like Clarence Gardens, Daw Park, Oaklands Park. In these areas the 2004 labor vote looks way too low for the current SA voting climate. I’d reckon Cornes will need to shift around 10% in those sorts of booths to win the seat. I think if Nicole is to win, it will be via a significant leakage from the green candidate (I’m talking green vote of around 10%).
November 12th, 2007 at 11:54 am
disappointed with the sunday mails effort to smear the labor party,
there was no effort for a balanced report on both parties,
if cornes wins i reckon she will be a hard worker , just to show up all her doubters
November 12th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
My two cents worth:
1) The woman is smart - she has a law degree - she can learn.
2) The party have failed to school her.
3) If Nicole was running for the Liberals, she’d be a dream candidate. Working mother of young children, step-mother, has run her own business, went to university as a part-time mature-age student. She has everything going for her.
Unfortunately, some supporters of the party just don’t get it - Basil Fawlty, blehygu - I’m talking to you.
I’d suggest that some other candidates would perform just the same (or worse) if they were getting the same media attention as Nicole Cornes.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
Ian, you are smack bang on the mark. To prove it just look what she’s been up agaisnt;
1) a certain unethical Adelaide journalist persistently raising a very personal and unrelated issue on day 2 of her preselction to get her to cry and then running it front page under a heading that suggested she couldnt handle the pressure (i.e. making it look like she was crying from pressure not the immoral act the journo did in raising such an issue). a deplorable act but went unreported.
2) Journalists sometimes turning up at her house unannounced at 7am in the morning with camera men hiding out front. public life is one thing but isnt there still a line of decency?
3) she goes to a shopping centre visit with peter garrett. Garrett turns up 25 mins late from a media interview. Garrett meets Mrs Cornes as soon he gets there and yet the next days story was “Cornes cuts and runs on Garrett”, stating he wandered twenty five minutes looking for her!!! He met her as soon as he was there!! In other words the journalist didnt nail her in a press conference earlier, so he fabricated a story to make a standard walk through with no slip ups, another gaffe. once again a total fabrication, and once again by this notoriously unethical journalist listed above.
The irony is despite some ppl believing this crap they read in local rag, the papers are actually creating their own narrative on Boothby when in reality feeling on ground is quite opposite. Some journalists are setting themselves up to be red faced election night, unless they start reporting the facts rather than fabricated hype.
To fight on, despite even the first incident which was a bottom of the barrel act, shows the inner strength of this woman and her sheer toughness.
Make no mistake she is a real contest against the Libs wet rag of a MP, the lazy southcott
November 12th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
There is gonna be big swings in South Australia, especially Adelaide to Labor.
Based on this fact, I will be very surprised if Cornes fails to win despite being “piggy in the middle” of a whole raft of landslide victories in seats all around hers.
November 12th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Richardson has his own commercials as well. what was the latest green vote in boothby?
November 12th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Mathew @ 70
Re Nicole and the oldies,
“Nicole started work as a 14-year-old in aged care, emptying commodes and showering people.”
Oldies love those who look after them, nurses and youngsters, she has lived in Boothby all her life and her early life would be known to a few people in the area.
Cornes work with the oldies contrasts with Pyne in the seat next door.
“The Sunday Age today reported that Mr Pyne told a Liberal-funded breakfast, attended by aged care providers, that he preferred to avoid aged care events because he was young.
Mr Pyne allegedly said he would rather not open aged care facilities or attend meetings about them because he was young, had a family and because it is an election year. He was also reported as saying he was less interested in aged care than his “passion” for foreign affairs.”
Ian made a good point that if Cornes was a liberal candidate the press would be prasing her values and her background.
November 13th, 2007 at 9:26 am
Bill - if you mean 2004, the Greens got 7% in Boothby.
November 13th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Arbie Jay: Pyne is the Minister for Ageing and he said that? What the hell?
November 13th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
I’m not sure what Pyne was thinking, he has one of the highest numbers of people aged over 65 living in his electorate….. very foolish.
November 13th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Pyne been penciled in the ALP gain column
November 15th, 2007 at 8:49 am
Can someone confirm if Ms Cornes was doing the meet and greet at Oaklands Station this morning (Thursday 15th) ? Even tho’ the Noarlunga express crawls through there, it was difficult to tell. Looked to be working without a safety net too. Go Nicole !
November 15th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vifP2DaWjI
- interesting you tube search…someone has uploaded a video of Southcott refusing to rule out tolls on SA roads. surprised hasnt been picked up - would go down like a lead brick over here.
November 18th, 2007 at 12:13 am
Labor polling shows a 6% swing in Boothby - looks like Cornes may just win. The general feeling in the electorate is that they want Rudd as PM and are looking at the bigger picture, rather than Cornes. Interesting. Also, the Coalition has just about given up on Sturt. Pyne is gone.
November 18th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I’ve seen some of the candidates up close. Dr Southcott is lacklustre at best. Nicole arrived late for a public meeting but spoke well. She has a heart-felt way about her. I think the media performance was a total failure of the labor machine to support her, what did they think would happen? I think she choked on the first press engagement and everything since has been moulded by the media to fit that picture. It is unfair. Craig Bossie for the Democrats impresses me, he is compassionate, clued in to the local issues and is a very good match for the electorate. He’s been working on the Democrats transport plan issue. There’s a Green, and an independent who now appears to be there to boost the X vote, but that’s not confirmed. Craig Bossie was at the Mitcham shops with Natasha Stott Despoja. I’ll be voting dems 1, then Labor and Liberal last, yes one nation before Liberal.
November 18th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
Now, I chose the easiest 3 SA electorates first, and I don’t think too many people would argue with my assessment of those being picked up by labor.
Boothby is one of those that everybody will be looking out for on election night. Was Nicole Cornes the right choice ? Is she a disaster ? Will her grass-roots campaign style be effective ? All questions that remain unanswered until next Saturday night, or maybe later if it’s close.
I work at Flinders University, in the heart of Boothby, and have many friends and colleagues that live within this seat. I can honestly say, I have found little evidence of people wanting to vote directly for Nicole Cornes, in spite of my words of biased labor wisdom. However, I distinctly detect an equal unwillingness to vote for Southcott. A number of people have indicated they will be voting greens and sending their preference to Cornes. So it is for this reason I think a high greens vote will be essential for Cornes to win here. And if she wins, it will be a close-run thing.
The green vote last time was 7%, which is fairly decent. I suspect it will be much higher this time, easily getting over 10%. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict 12% !
So, I’m caught in 2 minds, but I don’t think Cornes has done enough, and will just miss out. Liberal retain. (2PP swing to labor of 4%)
November 18th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
Im gonna go out on a limb and say Cornes will win by over 1%. The mood is so pro-Rudd and Cornes through hard work and unwarranted media attention has made this once neglected Lib seat the eye of the nation - why on earth would anyone wanna stop that? If it becomes a marginal seat itll be one of the most marginal in the country and will be getting attention left right and centre from whatever govt gets in. For that reason alone ppl will vote for Cornes. If she was up against a hard working MP then Libs would be in game, but Southcott cant portray himself independently from team. hes done too little locally. Very much agree with pannas, she dispels preconceptions when u meet her, and southcott is very very much a useless wet rag of a bloke. Bossie is quite impressive I agree - they shouldve ran him on senate ticket. very broad background too for a Dem, church minister and ASIO officer - not some crazy leftie human shield like Ruth Russell.
November 19th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
Like so many people I jumped to conclusions about Nicole Cornes on the strength of that first widely published interview, (and to my shame, her looks!) but thought again as I read further reports of her persisting with studying policy, working really hard at one to one contacts and turning up like a trooper at local centres. Since then I’ve followed whatever news turned up about Boothby and Nicole with interest and was really impressed on this blog to read the details of her early life, struggles and achievements. I see other comments here from people who know her personally and trust that it will filter through to her that people outside S.A. have been impressed by her. It must take considerable intestinal fortitude to resist the tide of “blondism” out there and stay strong in the face of vindictive comment Sometimes being born beautiful makes it hard to be taken seriously and I imagine her struggle for an education is part of that. Whether she wins or not Nicole Cornes will do well. Legally Blonde and Reece Witherspoon spring to mind except that Nicole deserves to be taken more seriously than that! Go, Nicole!
November 20th, 2007 at 2:11 am
As a Victorian I’ve only seen the news grabs of Nicole in action but I’ve seen enough to know her pre-selection was a huge mistake. Look, she just comes across as stupid and lacking in any confidence. What comes out of her mouth is bad enough but the klutzy body language is even worse. If the election is tight she might actually cost Rudd Government. He’ll have only himself to blame for that.
November 20th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Ray 88: “If the election is tight she might actually cost Rudd Government”
And she could just as easily win it for them….
November 21st, 2007 at 2:03 am
Toby, the only way Nicole will get in is if there’s an absolute overall landslide to Labor and she gets swept over the line in the tsunami. Boothby is not the “litmus test” of this election, she’s made sure of that. So no, she can’t “just as easily win it (Government) for them…” but she sure as hell can lose it.
November 23rd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
I think I understand Nicole. The working-class nerd with Distinctions in Law, angel face and boobs. A challenging combination, for her and for us, a clashing of stereotypes alive and well. The battler, the brainy and the gorgeous, cutting through but conflicted and under seige.
Cunning diplomacy, weapon of choice, can be purchased also has to be learned. Princess Di had a go, with no expense spared. But was missing the crunch. Try My Fair Lady instead - a brunette it’s true; no degree, but with guts and personal mentor to hand. A beauty who fought for and learned social power of the time. So go Nicole - targeted PR tactics are all. You too can conquer the fickle world, as politics requires.
November 24th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Voting day…and I have a problem….I dearly want Mr. Rudd to win…but I do not want to be represented by Nicole Cornes. Lovely, hardworking gal she may be (and I have never met her) but she does not have the experience (a few rounds within the local government arena) nor the political savvy necessary to assume this position. I think her selection as ALP candidate is a glaring case of ‘jobs for the boys’ gone wrong! For the future - if anyone out there, or even Nicole herself (if she is unsuccessful this time), is truly interested in eventually running for national office - might I suggest one spend some time gathering more appropriate qualifications than a feather-weight newspaper column and a celebratory footballer husband. Meanwhile - how to vote preferences to accomplish my goal??