Jun 22 2007
Steady as she goes
Roy Morgan has released results from a face-to-face survey of 1723 respondents conducted over the past two weekends, which has Labor’s primary vote down from 51 per cent to 48 per cent from the previous such poll a fortnight ago (which had only 909 respondents) and the Coalition’s down from 38 per cent to 37 per cent. Labor’s two-party lead has increased from 58-42 to 58.5-41.5 based on how respondents said they would vote; on the basis of how preferences went in 2004, it has narrowed from 58-42 to 57.5-42.5. The face-to-face results are distinct from the two smaller-sample telephone surveys conducted by Morgan in the interim, both of which had Labor leading 55-45.
June 25th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Anthony Whitlam - Member for Grayndler
June 25th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Barton went to the High Court
June 25th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Hugh Mahon, member for Coolgardie 1901 -1920, spent 2 months in Kilmainham for land agitation. He is the only member of the HoR to be expelled - for calling George V a “bloody and accursed despot”. The resultant bye-election is, I think, the only bye-election in which a government has won an opposition seat.
When tom Uren was arrested for marching in Brisbane he said he had only ever previously been imprisoned by the Japanese.
June 25th, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Leomonade Ley was associated with a number of mysterious deaths. Fred McDonald, his ALP opponent in Barton in 1925, claimed that Ley had offered him a bribe to withdraw from the Ballot. He subsequently disappeared while attempting to have the election declared void. A buisness critic and NSW MP, Hyman Goldstein was found dead at the bottom of the Gap. However he was only convicted for the “chalkpit murder” in England. In which he organized thye murder of the suppossed lover of his mistress, John Mudie. He was sentenced to hang but the sentance was commuted because of unsanity to life in Broadmoor.
June 25th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
insanity, I don’t know if he was also unsanitary
June 25th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
So how many Premiers have ended up in the clink, then? That’s as much out of my own curiosity as anything else!
June 25th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Brian Burke - I’m sure there’s more.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
I’ve got a vague idea that Burke might be the only one.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Actually I’m wrong - of course Burke’s own predecessor, Ray O’Connor, also went to jail.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Ray O’Connor is another ex-con ex-prem
June 25th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Ray O’Connor, Liberal WA Premier 1982-1983 jailed for three months for corruption.
June 25th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
Wright was an opposition leader who went to jail
June 25th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
I’m waiting for one of the big guns like Adam or Antony to weigh in with “In 1852 the Premier of Tasmania was jailed.. “
June 25th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Tasmanian Premier Robert Cosgrove was forced to resign as Premier in 1947 on bribery, corruption and conspiracy charges, in relation to the granting of tmber licences from memory. (Another state where the people change, the issues remain the same.) He was found not guilty, and new Premier Booker resigned office to allow Cosgrove to resume the premiership. While not found guilty, he’s the only Premier ever to be charged while in office.
June 25th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Antony, if it helps, I searched around for other people called Kusala or Sujatha in any context, and the names both seem to be women’s names
June 25th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Antony, completely unrelated question, but is that tiny box that you lived in when we saw you on the Chaser your real home? That’s terrible. We should increase ABC funding just to give you a nicer office.
June 25th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
I’m not aware of any Premier of Tasmania who went to jail, though doubtless most of them should have done.
James Munro, Premier of Victoria, went bankrupt in 1893 with debts of 600,000 pounds, a huge amount at that time. He was never charged, but he was attacked in the street by a creditor and beaten unconscious.
June 25th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
Sir Charles Gavan Duffy, premier of Victoria in 1871 was imprisoned while being tried for Felony/Treason as part of the Young Ireland movement. He was tried 5 times and the jury failed to reach a conclusion at each trial. After the fifth trial it was suggested he might like some time in the colonies. He was the progenitor of a large number of prominent Australians.
His cell mate was James Lalor, brother of Peter for whom an arrest warrant for Treason was issued but never enforced after the Eureka Stockade. Peter became speaker and Postmaster- General in Victoria.
June 25th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
maybe Howard and co will enter these steemed ranks of scoundrels and never do wells
June 25th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Howard is much too clever for that. A few clots like Hardgrave and Laming will be left to carry the can.
INCIDENTALLY, people who like to boast about the impressive credentials of Liberal MPs compared with Labor’s array of union hacks might like to note that Laming has one of the most brilliant CVs of any current MP (viz http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/biography.asp?id=E0H), yet he is obviously a complete political dunderhead. At least most union hacks have had some practice keeping out of this kind of trouble. Academic brilliance does NOT necessarily equal political talent.
June 25th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
I think that I can honestly say that over many decades many Queensland politicians have “never had a problem” with corrupt activities.
Don’t know about the Federal Court but Lionel Murphy and Garfield Barwick also went to the High Court. I think H V Evatt made the same journey, or was it in reverse?
June 25th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Evatt went fron the NSW Parliament to the High Court to Federal parliament and then to the NSW Suprene Court
June 25th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
The WA Liberals have cancelled their upcoming State Conference - nothing to do with avoiding a certain blood bath over the appalling leadership of convicted offender Liberal opposition leader Paul Omodei of course- apparently all to do with ensuring they concentrate their efforts with the re-election of Johnny Rotten.
Good luck
June 25th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
what has Omodei being convicted of?
June 25th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
He shot his son in the hand in a farming accident and was charged with not correctly dealing with firearms. Don’t know exact charge. Was found guilty but might be on appeal. Certainly never came close to going to gaol for it.
If the Libs have cancelled their conference, probably has more to do with Federal election, and also the new electoral boundaries for WA, the drafts released Friday, which look certain to end the career of a few Liberal and National MPs.
After consulting that well known journal of record, the Gloucester Advocate, I’ve worked out Kusala Fitzroy-Mendis was female. She and her son Stanley contested the NSW Gloucester by-election in 1985.
June 25th, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Charge was “committing a dangerous act causing bodily harm”.
June 26th, 2007 at 12:28 am
The new boundaries WERE released Friday or WILL BE released Friday?
June 26th, 2007 at 1:14 am
A galaxy senate poll today says
Coalition 34, Labor 38, Greens 13, Democrats 1, Other 14.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21967989-601,00.html
June 26th, 2007 at 1:33 am
Ha ha, in the reportJames J refers to, Senator Gary Humphries calls Getup, which is campaigning to “put the Coalition Last”, a ” front for the Labor Party”.
And the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry under the stewardship of Peter Hendry is an independent body,who’s interests are completely unaligned with the Liberals?
June 26th, 2007 at 2:18 am
Now I’ve seen everything - the Australian quotes itself as an authority for it’s own article today “Coalition’s grip on Senate in jeopardy:Poll.”
As much as I want to believe the story, I find I can’t trust the source!
June 26th, 2007 at 2:44 am
Bemused, the article i assume you are referring to is straight from the AAP feed. It wasn’t written by The Australian, nor does it claim to be, and it wont be in the print edition. The ‘breaking news’ section of the Australian site is automatically sourced from AAP news wire feed.
June 26th, 2007 at 3:18 am
Yes, it was in the “breaking news” section, was not specifically attributed that I could see, and is now gone.
You learn something every day. Thanks James J.
June 26th, 2007 at 7:37 am
Any value in Labor going after JWH again on the ‘retirement’ issue in their media campaign ? Didnt seem to make much difference in 2001, 2004.
People repulsed by the very real posssibility of Costello becoming PM without the need to seek electorate endorsement (the polls consistently indicating he is about as popular a (potential) PM as Keating) might be less willing to take a punt on JWH going the distance this time around.
I can imagine Costello’s smug face on television claiming (ala Keating) “This is the sweetest victory of them all”. The Editorial in yesterdays Courier Mail (page 14) head lined ‘Howard can’t stay Coy on Retirement’ demanded an answer.
I think Howard ‘can’ avoid answering the retirement question forever if he wants to, and probably will - I know I would.
Stilll, there might be some mileage for Labor to run a ‘grab bite’ of Costello in one of his more smug moments and ask the simple question “Do you really want this man as your (unelected) Prime Minister ?” Maybe its a ‘non-issue’, but Costello as PM is an ugly image.
June 26th, 2007 at 7:43 am
James J Says:
June 26th, 2007 at 1:14 am
A galaxy senate poll today says
Coalition 34, Labor 38, Greens 13, Democrats 1, Other 14.
Thanks for the info James. Mind you though, I pay little heed to Galaxy polls. For mine Galaxy polls have the waft of ‘push polling’ about them and Galaxy polls, therefore, might as well come from the same planet Adam reckons the Young Liberals hail from, Uranus.
June 26th, 2007 at 8:25 am
Howard’s Aboriginal Policy has the smell of another Tampa - sending the army into aboriginal communities etc. If this whole thing is meant to be above party politics, why then hasn’t Howard included Rudd and Jenny Macklin on the taskforce to administer the crackdown on child abuse/alcohol in aboriginal communities?
Call me cynical, but I wouldn’t trust anything the lying rodent says.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:07 am
When I was telephone polled by a Galaxy interviewer, there were no leading questions. There is no evidence that Galaxy engages in push polling and the arguments to the contrary have been far from persuasive. In this context it seems to be an expression that is used interchangeably with conservative bias. It does not add to the discussion on this thread.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:37 am
I hope you people remember that Galaxy turned out to be the most accurate pollster in 2004, coming to within a point of the final 2pp result in the House.
On those Senate figures, the Coalition is likely to get three seats in every state plus one each in the ACT and NT, meaning they will retain a majority until 2011 or a Double Dissolution is called. And since Howard is going to win the election in the House of Reps, the latter is most unlikely.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:39 am
So irving saulwick et al are lying then David Charles or are you also a renowned pollster
June 26th, 2007 at 9:56 am
Your sarcasm is wasted and please do not misquote me.
June 26th, 2007 at 10:20 am
Reeling back to my Q re Premiers and jail, I remember - apart from Brian Burke and Ray “Rocky” O’Connor (can’t rmember how he got that nickname - there was another former WA Premier recalled while being Ambassador to the Holy See to face charges but I can’t remember which one. And of course Vince Gair was also Ambassador to the Holy See…
And Galaxy?? Its a Senate poll so irrespective of who it’s from its questionable…but I haven’t noticed Galaxy to be any further wrong than say Morgan of late.
June 26th, 2007 at 10:54 am
James J: Where did you get your figures from ?
A galaxy senate poll today says
Coalition 34, Labor 38, Greens 13, Democrats 1, Other 14.
I read the same article and the Democrats aren’t even mentioned ?
If you have some inside knowledge of the numbers, please share them with us. A breakdown of the “Other 14″ would be nice.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Ok found a better article with Democrat numbers included:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21966259-601,00.html
hmm I thought you guys said The Australian supports the Coalition ? This article is very pro-Labor.
June 26th, 2007 at 11:50 am
The only question hanging over Galaxy is this. While all other polls have the coalition primary vote at around 39 - 40 percent and Labor’s at around 47 percent (taking an average), how come Galaxy had the coalitions primary vote at 43 percent and Labor’s at 44 percent? Logic tells you 3 probably have it somewhere near the actual situation and one doesn’t, not the other way around.
As for Nostradamus, just repeating a belief based on heaven knows what (certainly not the polls and not the issues) doesn’t mean it is going to happen.
June 26th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Galaxy’s previous two polls had 49-37 and 49-39, very much in line with what the others were saying.
The 44-42 looks like it was overly favourable to Labor, but the margin of error allows for the population value to be 47 to 39 without the poll being ‘wrong’ per se.
Newspoll had 52-34 the week before. Stuff happens in one-off polls. It doesn’t indicate some kind of underlying bias, or ‘push polling’. It’s what Mr Palmer at OP calls ’stochastic noise’.
There is, as of right now, absolutely zero evidence of anything systematically wrong with Galaxy’s polling. Although I must admit, my eyebrows have been raised by the outcomes of some of these GetUp commissioned polls.
June 26th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
‘Overly favourable to THE COALITION’ I meant. Obviously.
June 26th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
Speaker, The Oz went through a very anti-Rudd phase where it was almost impossible to find a nice word about him but certainly has had a few kinder pieces of late. Rudd (and his polling figures) has survived a veritable onslaught and I think various players and pundits are beginning to (1) appreciate Rudd is a realistic chance and (2) look beyond the election.
June 26th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
I think you were right the first time Leopold, the 44 - 42 Galaxy poll was favourable to Labor with 2PP at 53 - 47, a six pt lead. I think the excitement of the editorials in News Ltd papers about a Coalition resurgence misrepresented what the poll actually showed, a nice lead by Labor.
June 26th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
The best place for the full poll info is:
http://www.getup.org.au/files/media/senatepressrelease.pdf
June 26th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Rudd’s wife Therese Rein has been cleared by the workplace(workchoices) watchdog of underpaying employees.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21970830-1702,00.html
Will the fight of Industrial Relations now step up? The Union has been cleared by the AEC (if my memory serves me), now Therese Rein’s company has been cleared. They have thrown everything at Labor and Rudd and it’s hardly dented their standing in the polls.
So where does that leave Shrek and Howard on their campaign?
So where does that leave the Mark Textor run campaign for the ACCI and others on their campaign?
June 26th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Well Leopold, maybe that is the answer or more precisely, the excuse Galaxy need to provide and to take back the misleading headlines they created and wanted.
June 26th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
What are you on about?
A poll is an estimate of a population value, with a margin of error. Galaxy provided that, and recent polls suggest 44-42 is probably (just) within the margin of error. News Limited interpreted it as they are wont too. Nothing to do with the polling organisation.
What does Galaxy have to excuse? Why aren’t you demanding Newspoll apologise for their (probably) even more misleading 52-35 a week earlier?
June 26th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
Leopold, what are you on about? Are you saying Galaxy are as out of step as Newspoll were a week earlier? If so you’re right. Rogue polls my friend.
June 27th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
“the excuse Galaxy need to provide and to take back the misleading headlines they created and wanted.”
Could you explain that sentence? My impression is you are saying a) Galaxy is intentionally biased, b) they should apologise (’provide…excuse’) in some way for their poll and News Ltd’s headlines associated with it.
June 28th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
All the opinion polls have the Coalition’s primary vote around 40% at the moment, say if the Greens were to win 7% of the vote, Family First 4% and others 4-5%. If an election here held anytime soon like August, the Coalition would be defeated, possibly as bad as they were in 1983.
The Coalition would have to score around 44% to win the election. It remains to be seen if the Coalition can gain that extra 4% of the vote between now and the election in Late October/Early November.